The Scottish Grand National is the feature among a busy day of racing, with Group and Graded action on the flat and over jumps. Matty Sutcliffe gives you his best bets, of which there are a whopping seven across the day…
1:10 Ayr – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Malystic 1pt WIN
Three of the last four winners of this contest had already previously contested it suggesting it’s one of those end of season target contests, and given MALYSTIC won this off a 10lbs higher mark in 2023, he has to be considered to reclaim his crown.
That effort came off top-weight when beating the subsequent Clarence House winner Elixir De Nutz, but he arguably suffered off a high mark the following season. He was well beaten on his first three starts, but proved there was life in his yet when beaten three lengths in a 0-150 at Doncaster, ahead of Traprain Law who franked the form next time out. He backed that up when again beaten three lengths in a similar contest behind Homme Public, and he has a handy 11lbs swing with that one. Tommy’s Oscar was three lengths in behind him that day, and he has 5lbs to find with the selection.
Malystic proved it was no fluke when backing up the form on seasonal debut this term, beaten a head by Breizh River giving away 15lbs to the winner and again finishing twelve lengths in front of Tommy Oscar, and he still has 4lbs swing with that one on that basis.
He’s admittedly gone off the boil, but upped to 149 there was few races for him to be competitive, pulling up in the Byrne Group Chase at Ascot when losing a shoe, beaten 23L at Kelso (though only three lengths behind Traprain Law, 4lbs swing this time) and falling heavily at Wetherby.
There was plenty of promise in his reappearance this year at Doncaster when beaten ten lengths having largely set the race up for the closers with the other prominent runners falling/pulling up, and it was pleasing to see him gather a second wind and stay on to the line once outpaced. The addition of cheek-pieces look the correct move in that respect, and given he’s on his lowest mark yet in handicaps, this looks a golden opportunity to get the 11-year-old back to winning ways.
1:25 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Bellum Justum 9/2 1pt WIN
I’d have this between the top three in the market who are all somewhat clear on ratings with the rest of the eld, but Sunway was 0-7 last season and is becoming rather tripless, and Ancient Wisdom would arguably prefer some softer going and looked comfortable at 1m5f when making all in the Bahrain Trophy Stakes.
There’s very few chinks in the armour of BELLUM JUSTUM, who trained on with aplomb last season having landed the Blue Riband Derby Trial at Epsom on 3yo debut, before not quite getting the rub of the green in the Derby proper, though still finishing two lengths ahead of Ancient Wisdom. He bounced back to form when beaten two lengths in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot with the first and second franking the form to finished the season rated 117 and 114, and he was only beaten a neck in the G3 Gordon Stakes by the subsequent St Leger winner Jan Brueghel.
Bellum Justum bounced back to winning ways in the Nashville Derby at Keeneland, and his pedigree would suggest there’s still further improvement to come as a 4yo.
2:00 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) – Hey Boo 50/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Simmering looks to be the ideal mould of a Fred Darling winner but at 3/1 she’s short enough for me at the top of the market, and HEY BOO catches the eye towards the rear end.
Mick Channon first won the Fred Darling in 2002, before going on to win it a further four times including with Dan’s Dream in 2018, who was his sole runner in the race in the last ten renewals. While his initial four winners were classy two year olds, Dan’s Dream was coming off the back of RPR’s of 56 and 79, so Hey Boo shouldn’t be discounted for Jack Channon who’s had some success with fillies since taking the reins, including with ’23 Epsom Oaks third Caernarfon.
Hey Boo is unbeaten in two 7F starts on the all-weather at Chelmsford this season, swooping from rear to land the first before comfortably defying a penalty to land the second with the third winning on the grass at Doncaster next time out.
She has plenty to find on the figures, but she’s bred to improve for this switch to turf being a half sister to Queen Mary fourth and Dick Poole winner Juniper Berries, and the yard are among the winners.
3:12 Newbury – OLBG Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) – Two Tempting 12/1 1pt EW 4 places + Classic 16/1 1pt EW 4 places
TWO TEMPTING kept on improving last season despite being relatively unfancied in the market, landing five of his nine starts including in three valuable class two big eld handicaps. He reappeared this term with a two lengths fifth in the Lincoln Trial and posting a career best RPR of the all-weather in doing do suggesting he’s not finished improving, and we can draw a line through his nine-length 16th in the Lincoln last time out.
He was unfavourably positioned in the Lincoln, running into the strong headwind on the wide ank. The others to run into the headwind finished 9th, 15th, 20th and 21st which further suggests they were unfavoured, with the first five home all coming from rear.
He’s only 2lbs above his last winning mark in a race which was franked by the fourth winning the Balmoral last time out, and his experience in big eld handicaps can come to the fore.
The other I’d like to consider is CLASSIC, who has an 8lbs swing with Two Tempting for a neck defeat at Sandown in July. He’s often flattered to deceive in handicaps having shown up well as a two year old, but his course form reads 43042 with the sole poor effort coming in the Greenham two starts ago, and if a gelding operation can eek out further improvement then I’d be surprise if he can’t make his mark in mile handicaps this season off a mark of 88 for a yard who won this in 2021.
2:55 Ayr – UK Greentech Glasgow Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Fox’s Fancy 12/1 1pt EW 4 places
Lucinda Russell won this with Czech Her Out last season having previously finished second in an Ayr handicap of 2m5f, and lightning can strike twice with FOX’S FANCY who looks to be the centre of a perfectly executed plan.
The Kayf Tara mare was beaten a neck by Ruby Island in the same handicap as Czech Her Out, and given she was returning from a 143 day layoff with the winner having race fitness on side, I’d expect the form to be reversed along with a 1lbs swing in the weights. Laved Adiva in fourth franked the form healthily when winning a listed contest next time out, but she’s 6lbs higher and effectively 11lbs factoring in Charlie Maggs claiming that day.
Though Fox’s Fancy was beaten five lengths on her only start over this trip, that came from a 174 day layoff and she stayed on in the manner of one needing the run. By Kayf Tara from the family of the yards Grand National winner One For Arthur, this trip on good ground should bring out further improvement from her and her sole win came from a second run after a break last April.
3:35 Ayr – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Klarc Kent 20/1 1pt EW 6 places
Jonathan Burke has ditched his original booking of Magna Sam to ride KLARC KENT for Willie Mullins, unsurprisingly given the spin he gave Minella Cocooner in the Grand National despite his saddle slipping early on.
I’m surprised to see Klarc Kent as big as 33/1, given he was a staying on six-length fourth in this contest from 10lbs higher last season. He wasn’t disgraced in the National Hunt Chase when eight in first time cheekpieces, and if the return here prompts further improvement then he’s well weighted to better last year’s effort.
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