The weekend rolls around again with Matty Sutcliffe having found three best bets for you for Saturday’s televised racing. All of them appear at substantial prices, so get the value while you can by reading on below.
1:15 Ascot – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-125) – Molto Bene 20/1 1pt EW 4 places
With a regular tongue tie, wind surgery this season and having made a respiratory noise last time out, I think it’s safe to say MOLTO BENE is susceptible to breathing issues but that is evidently factored into her price, but if her wind holds up on Saturday then she’s more than entitled to outrun her odds.
The daughter of Jukebox Jury was an impressive winner at Chepstow on seasonal debut in November, gamely fending off the favourite Loverdose with an excellent jump at the last, running through the line strongly. The form has worked out nicely with the second coming out and winning twice since, latterly by ten lengths in a Sandown class three now rated 23lbs higher, the third is rated 9lbs higher having finished second in a Kempton class two from out of the weights, the fourth won over fences next time out, and the sixth won next time out at Doncaster.
She then stepped up to class two company at Cheltenham and was far from disgraced when faring second best of the prominent runners to be beaten a six length seventh, staying on strongly after the last despite looking outpaced once the pace lifted off the bend. The form of that race has worked out well too, with the fourth winning a listed contest at Warwick next time out, the third beat Kargese in a grade two at Ascot, and the second took the old Betfair Hurdle at Newbury for us last weekend.
This mark of 116 looks more than workable this seasons’ form, and should we draw a line through that Southwell run then she’d be going into this race a lot shorter in the market. The fact they’re stepping her up to three miles suggests they’re happy enough to chance her wind will hold up, and the pedigree backs up the visual suspicion she’ll improve for the step up in trip given she’s a half sister to Cuthbert Dibble, who was third in last seasons Pertemps Final.
1:50 Ascot – Ebony Horse Club Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Leave Of Absence 33/1 1pt WIN
Just one of the last ten winners of this race prepped in Graded company last time out which was Black Corton in 2018, and he was also the only favourite to win the race of late too. Jingko Blue and Lowry’s Bar will prove popular toward the head of affairs particularly given they’re clear on ratings, but the unexposed LEAVE OF ABSENCE looks seriously overpriced in this trappy five runner field.
I wouldn’t look too much into his mark of 127, as with all novices, they improve at different rates and I thought his comeback run from 758 days off the track at Kempton on chase debut was quite taking. He went a good enough gallop in front under a keen hold and was clever in his jumping, despite shifting marginally to his left in occasions. He was quick enough to keep up with the former Betfair Hurdle winner Iberico Lord in the latter stages who despite an indifferent round of jumping early on, warmed to the task well late on.
Anthony Honeyball has kept him fresh presumably due to being wary of the bounce factor, but I’d have no doubt he will be much stronger and fitter after Kempton and the fresh angle is key to him, with his record under rules reading 1112 when fresh. He was a promising bumper horse in 2022, a season culminating in a third to Lookaway in the Aintree G2 bumper and he landed the odds when making all at Ascot on hurdles debut to beat the subsequent G2 Pencil winner Blow Your Wad, who’s become a fairly useful sort.
While he does have something to prove to reach the level of what these have already achieved over fences, he remains entirely unexposed and the step up in trip is of interest too. He’s by Masked Marvel who can get stayers such as Teahupoo, and Act One as a damsire of National Hunt horses generally tends to provide staying types. Anthony Honeyball is a fantastic operator particularly with horses at this trip, and his record at Ascot over fences in the last five seasons reads a respectable 26-4-12 (£15.50+).
2:25 Ascot – Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Tapley 40/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
TAPLEY was a bet for the column when a staying on six length fifth at Kempton in a novice chase on Boxing Day when upped to this trip form the first time. He was tenderly handled by Charlie Deutsch but I thought he finished with plenty of running, clocking the second quickest final furlong in the process.
He returns to hurdles after three runs over fences and is only 3lbs above his last winning mark, which came earlier this season at Plumpton off top weight. As mentioned in the previous write up about him, this Geordieland gelding has been crying out for a step up in trip and this stiffer test around Ascot can take his form to a better level. He has numerous bits of form in good company, such as a fourth in the Gerry Fielder and a second in the Swinton, and given three of his five wins have come fresh, this fifty one day break will have done him no harm.
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