Saturday sees Trials Day from Cheltenham headline the racing action, though there is top class racing from Doncaster live on ITV as well. Matty Sutcliffe has spotted some long shots to keep onside, including a 66/1 shot in a Grade 2…
1:50 Cheltenham – Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Gbb Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Happygolucky 33/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
Two of the previous three winners of this race return in the form of Il Ridoto and Torn and Frayed, and the former has to be respected on the back of his third in the race last season from effectively 4lbs higher factoring in Freddie Gingell’s claim. The complexion of this contest is rather muddling, as there’s a plethora of negatives towards the fore of the market. Connections of Iroko are still on the Grand National path, and you’d have to wonder whether 2m4f around here will be short enough for him. Ginny’s Destiny was disappointing in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon and for all Protektorat boosted that form last time out, he was receiving 7lbs from him and Dan Skelton’s charge was far from tuned up for that contest.
Imperial Saint is 3-3 at Aintree this season, but he bombed out around Newbury and I’d again slightly question whether Cheltenham would suit him, not to mention that he beat Richmond Lake last time out over 2m4f, who looked in need of even further when staying on over 3m1f in the Peter Marsh Chase. Soul Icon shouldn’t be discounted after winning the Desert Orchid Chase, but that race fell in to his lap with Editeur De Gite and Sans Bruit cutting each others throats in front, Martator didn’t travel throughout, and he was receiving 20lbs from the runner-up.
The one who I think could be worth a flier at the rear end of the market is the veteran HAPPYGOLUCKY. The son of Jeremy has only been seen 12 times in his career, but he’s only been out of the front three in three of those occasions, including a fourth in the Martin Pipe here over hurdles in 2020. He’s evidently tricky to keep right, but his record fresh reads 2141239, with wins from 328 and 230-day layoffs, and he posted his third RPR of 154 when returning from a 595-day layoff in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle off a mark of 151 when beaten four lengths behind L’Homme Presse.
He wasn’t seen to best effect off top weight when last seen in the Ultima in first time cheek pieces, but he’s switched hands since from Kim Bailey to Mel Rowley who can ready one well from a layoff, and the handicapper has given him some serious leeway dropping him 9llbs on this reappearance. That puts him on his lowest mark in handicaps over fences, and if he can run even to 80% of the form he’s shown in the past, such as his Ultima second off 147 and the G3 Handicap at Aintree of 149, then he won’t have many better opportunities to win another race of this calibre off 143.
Cheltenham are forecast 8-15mm of rain on Friday which could turn the ground testing, and that’ll place an emphasis on stamina for which he bodes more than most.
2:05 Doncaster – Pertemps Network River Don Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Frisby 66/1 0.5pt EW 3 places
Patrick Neville will have been very much involved with The Real Whacker when assistant to Ann Duffield, who had The Real Whacker finish second in the River Don in 2022. That horse came from the same sale two years prior to FRISBY, who can leave behind his hurdling debut over 2m3f at Catterick now stepping up to three miles on a softer surface.
He was sent off 9/2 behind horses who’d already had a run, and the winner looks potentially above average for Anthony Honeyball who runs at Cheltenham in the G2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle. Frisby travelled strongly in behind the leaders jumping well throughout, but he was outpaced off the turn for home, shaping as if he needed the run from a 306-day layoff and a longer trip would suit.
He looked all stamina when a seven-length second to Derryhassen Paddy at Ayr in a bumper last February, and that one is now unbeaten in two starts since, rated 134, so that form somewhat warrants his place in this contest. He was bought for £40,000 after an eight length Dromahane Point-To-Point win in 2023 on heavy ground, so it won’t come as a surprise if this Flemensfirth gelding can progress starkly over this trip. His dam is well related given she’s a half sister to J’y Vole for Willie Mullins who won a grade one and while chasing is likely to be the aim with Frisby, I’m happy to take a chance here with Brian Hughes on top, who’s won the last two renewals of the River Don.
3:15 Doncaster – Virgin Bet Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Idalko Bihoue 7/1 1pt WIN (Erne River also advised ante-post)
The in form Nigel Twiston-Davies won the Great Yorkshire Chase with Go Conquer in 2019 and they’ve only had one runner in it since which was Undersupervision who unseated his rider before finishing second in the Grimthorpe for the same connections, and I wonder whether the Town Moor double is the plan for IDALKO BIHOUE, with Tom Bellamy bidding to emulate his success on Go Conquer.
Connections have always held this £155,000 Balko gelding in high regard, and I’m amazed it’s taken them this long to step their P2P winner up to three miles over fences. He’s been admittedly disappointing since pitched in deep as a novice when finishing third in the Challow behind Hermes Allen and You Wear It Well, but he finally came good when impressively winning a Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on his second start over fences. He went backwards from that when well beaten at Kempton, but there was some promise to take from his 12 -length fifth back at Cheltenham when staying on well in rear having jumped the last with only one behind him, clocking a sub 15sec final furlong with only the impressive winner In Excelsis Deo the other runner to do so.
He was supposedly well tuned up for the Grand Sefton when sent off favourite for that race earlier this season, and he was going well enough prior to three out when Sam Twiston Davies lost his irons after making a mess of the fence, and that stunted his momentum.
There was some promise in his fifth at Haydock off top weight, posting an RPR a pound lower than his best effort over fences thus far. He came off the bridle four out and never really looked like challenging, but he did stay on well enough again to once more suggest like we won’t see the best of him until upped in trip. I’m surprised that headgear hasn’t been reached for as he still looks quite unfurnished in his racing, but I think that’s down to connections getting him wrong in the sense they’ve always tried to run him fresh. He looks the exact sort who needs racing and runs into him, and the last time he was turned out this quick, he won his novice chase at Cheltenham.
3:35 Cheltenham – Betfair Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Kerryhill 16/1 1pt EW 3 places
We caught Crambo at the right time in the Long Walk last time out, having been adamant he’s better when fresh and running right handed, so I’m happy to take him on this time around. Strong Leader was seriously disappointing in that race and has since had a wind op, and he’s likely to be tuned up for Aintree again.
Gowel Road struggles to run above an RPR of 145 which wouldn’t bode well here given that, bar Noble Yeats (149), every winner in the last decade has posted an RPR of 157 or higher, Monmiral will surely be getting his mark back down for a Pertemps, Botox Has looks to be going backwards at the game, Ga Law returns to hurdles for the first time since being beaten by Botox Has 36L in 2023, and I suspect connections are just minding Transmission’s chase mark for the Cheltenham Festival. With doubts about the top two who should really produce the forecast based on ratings, and further question mark about the rest, it might be worth taking a chance on the unexposed KERRYHILL, who’s had a wind op since pulling up in Stayers Handicap at Haydock in November.
Ruth Jefferson remarked how she had him fully tuned up for that and was puzzled as to why he ran poorly, but a combination of near unraceable ground, and issues with his palate suggests that it may have been a case of his wind needed to be tweaked, and if that’s worked the oracle then he’d have to be considered judged on his seven length River Don route.
The form of that has worked out well albeit over fences, but visually it was impressive as they come having travelled effortlessly up the inner before looming upsides the leaders three out on the bridle, taking it up two out and he was value for the winning margin as he looked all at sea once hitting the front.
On paper he’ll need to put up a career best to take this, but we’ve already discussed that the market protagonists have plausible reasoning to underperform and given the yard have left him in the Stayers’ Hurdle, they evidently think he has the ability to make a stamp in this weak staying division with the inform Kielan Woods taking just his second ride for the yard.
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