The 2000 Guineas field may be among the smallest in recent years, but that hasn’t stopped Matty Sutcliffe finding what he thinks is a huge bit of value. His selection in the race is an 80/1 shot, while he has six best value bets in all across the day.
1:45 Newmarket – Betfred Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) – Two Tribes 7/1 1pt WIN + Indian Run 25/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
TWO TRIBES bumped into James’s Delight in this contest last season who overhauled him just late on, before going on to take a 52k York handicap and a listed contest at Deauville, now rated 13lbs higher. The other five home who pulled clear that day had all franked the form throughout the season, and Two Tribes was perhaps unlucky himself not to land a competitive handicap at the Ebor meeting when having to suffer for racing room.
Silvestre De Sousa returns this time around, and with his record fresh reading 222, he has to be considered back here to go one better from a 2lbs lower mark.
Elsewhere, I’m not all that concerned about Indian Run being 3lbs out of the weights here as he wasn’t entirely disgraced off this mark last time out over C&D. To my eye, he looked well in need of the run on his seasonal debut, and it was a pleasing effort on his first start since being gelded given how tamely his three year old campaign unfolded. He was tenderly handled by James Doyle, but clocked the joint quickest third furlong to suggest this drop to six furlongs for the first time since his Ascot Maiden win as a two-year-old is perhaps the way forward with him this season.
That race was won by More Thunder from stall one, and given the way some of the action unfolded on the far-side at Newmarket’s opening meeting we shouldn’t be dissuaded by INDIAN RUN’s draw in one, and I’m hoping Billy Loughnane will break well and attempt to lead on the far-side rail.
The booking of Loughnane is a rare one for Julie Camacho who’s used him just three times in the past, and the in form yard have a respectable 30% place rate on the Rowley Mile which bodes well for frame possibilities.
The former Acomb Stakes winner remains well handicapped on his two year old form, and last time out was a sign that there’s potential in him bouncing back to the winners enclosure on his favourable quick ground this time around.
2:00 Goodwood – Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Arisaig 16/1 1pt EW
The sole C&D winner in the field in ARISAIG looks slightly overpriced here for a yard who won this in 2018, despite having something to find on the figures.
We saw in this contest last term that ratings don’t necessarily stack up with the 87-rated Royal Dress beating a trio of 107, 102 and 100-rated fillies and I’ve often been of the opinion that Arisaig has the potential to flourish in this company.
She was a bet for the column in the Sandringham when beaten five lengths in eighth, finishing third on her unfavourable far-side group, with the winner of that group subsequently rated 104 after two seconds in Listed company.
She was a credible three-length fifth in the Spring Cup at Newbury on seasonal debut when staying on well in rear, and if stripping fitter for that effort then she’s entitled to outrun her lofty odds back over a winning C&D, which suits her strong travelling, hold up nature.
2:35 Thirsk – Ladbrokes Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) – Redarna 14/1 1pt EW 4 places
Bottom weight REDARNA effectively runs off a mark of 78 here, and while he is well into the veteran stage, he won this race off a mark of 91 in 2022 an put up a credible effort off a 10lbs higher mark when beaten two lengths in the race last season, with the first and second coming from way off the pace in midfield.
He proved he was still capable of good form toward the end of last season albeit in class four company when a winner off top weight at Ayr, producing an RPR of 89 in the process.
He gets his preferable quick ground here, and he’s likely to have been primed for this contest off a workable mark.
2:55 Newmarket – Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Palace House Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Tropical Storm 6/1 1.5pt WIN
It paid to follow the three-year-old in Seven Questions for us in this contest last season and the sole three-year-old, TROPICAL STORM, is taken with his allowances putting him best off at the weights.
The son of Eqtidaar was a neck second over C&D at this meeting last season with the third franking the form throughout the season now rated 110, and he was a solid second next time out in the Norfolk Stakes, ahead of the subsequent G1 Prix Morny winner Whistlejacket.
He landed a Listed contest at York’s Ebor meeting next time out with the second following up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, and he wasn’t disgraced in the Flying Childers when beaten two lengths.
He’s evidently proven at a level above this, and it’s only a matter of if he can improve from two to three, he could take this comfortably.
3:35 Newmarket – Betfred 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) – Benevento 80/1 0.5pt EW 4 places
I’m surprised to see BENEVENTO as the rag of the field here, who ran a perfectly credible race in the Craven Stakes. Field Of Gold was impressive, but I thought he was massively flattered by being covered up on the rail in the cross headwind and while it looked a shade cosy, the race fell into his lap.
Benevento made the running alongside The Waco Kid without cover, and while it was only a matter of time to see him drop, it was pleasing to see him gain something of a second wind and stay on strongly to the line, finishing only a length behind Wimbledon Hawkeye in second with the pair ahead of him also suited as to how the race unfolded.
That was a career best effort, and there’s little reason as to why he can’t progress again from that run.
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