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Matthew Sutcliffe’s Value Punts – Top Tips for Newmarket on Friday, 12th July

Newmarket’s July meeting continues apace on Friday, and Matty Sutcliffe has picked out some fancies at decent odds for you to follow.

Published: 1.24pm, Wednesday, 10th July (Prices correct at time of publishing)

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1:50 Newmarket bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)

Candle Of Dubai 25/1 0.5pt EW 3 places with bet365 (20/1 with SkyBet)

Deaths, Taxes and profiting from Mark Johnston trained winners on the July Course were three  certainties in life prior to the Scot passing the reigns over to his son Charlie at Kingsley Park in  Middleham, but young Charlie has embodied that July Course fever with a £34.50 profit margin to a £1 stake, with nine wins and twenty-three places from fifty three runners. That included a win in this contest with Killybeggs Warrior last season, an incredible sixth victory since 2014 in the race  for the Johnston yard. 

Bottom weight CANDLE OF DUBAI is interesting on that basis, despite being a pound out of the  weights. The yard were doubly represented with course winner True Wisdom prior to declarations,  so the fact they’ve opted to just have the sole runner here further heightens the interest in her despite having something to prove against a competitive looking field. 

She was well fancied at 5/2 in the market for her handicap debut over 1m4f here at the back end of last month, but she shaped like a non stayer having raced wide throughout, on ground potentially quick enough for her, given she’s a long striding filly with a bit of a knee action.  

Given she only made her debut in May, she’s open to further progress particularly down in distance to 1m2f where her three previous efforts came, with form figures of 221. We’ll have to trust that the ground will be suited to her visual style, given there’s more fast ground winners in her pedigree, but she’s related to a plethora of winners over this distance and the Johnston yard are excellent at bringing one back from a below par run when they’ve targeted a race. 

bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap)

2:25 Newmarket Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored By bet365) (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1)  (2yo)

Liberalised 14/1 0.5pt EW 3 places with Paddy Power & Betfair (12/1 with 4 Places at bet365 & SkyBet)

The form of the Albany Stakes (seven winners) and Queen Mary Stakes (three winners) have  provided the winner of this contest in the last decade, so it’s perhaps best to look past those who weren’t present in either of those races last month. 

I’m going to go slightly off-piste with the latter point and chance LIBERALISED, who was an intended  runner for the Albany (10/1 at one stage) before being withdrawn in the stalls. She only made her debut fifteen days prior to the Albany, which likely told us how well regarded she is at home and it’s more telling that Karl Burke could’ve sent any of his incredible army of two year olds here including Queen Mary winner Leovanni. 

Liberalised made a promising debut when winning at Hamilton last month, looking very straightforward for a May foal, four months younger than some of her competitors, so she’s more than entitled to come on for that effort. The RPR of 77 is nothing special, but she galloped strongly through the line with ears pricked, and the second won well next time out beating a progressive filly called Violet Love, who won cosily giving away 14lbs to the field at Ripon on Monday. 

She’s by a Showcasing mare who was second to Ardad in the 2016 Windsor Castle on soft ground so the surface should suit if it doesn’t dry up, and this G2 Lowther entry brings stacks of potential to this competitive field, who perhaps have already showed their juvenile hand. 

Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored By bet365) (Group 2) (Fillies)

3:00 Newmarket bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+) 

Solent Getaway 28/1 0.5pt EW 4 places with William Hill (25/1 with bet365)

We can take some solace in the fact that SOLENT GETAWAY’s only good run this season was on turf,  having largely tallied off in his four other starts which had all come on the all-weather, including folding tamely in the Northumberland Plate last month. However, almost anything that raced on the front end that day was tailed off, so it’s possible to draw a line straight through it.

If Solent Getaway was coming here on the back of his second to Divine Comedy in the Nell Hook  Handicap at Haydock, he’d be significantly shorter in the market. There was bits of money around for him there and he ran an excellent race, with the well backed winner just beaten half a length in the Ascot Stakes off a 9lbs higher mark, now rated 14lbs higher than when five length ahead of Solent Getaway. The form was also boosted with the fourth Euchen Glen taking a feature race at Ayr next time out, so if on song then there’s every chance Solent Getaway can exploit this mark back on turf. 

He’s three pounds below his last winning mark which came in the Nell Hook Handicap last term, and he ran a cracker in a 39K handicap at Newbury two starts later off a 5lbs higher mark (RPR  102) when four lengths behind Sweet William giving him 7lbs, who’s now rated 25lbs higher having progressed into a group horse. 

The excellent Connor Planas is booked, who rides the July course very well with his record reading 16-5-7 (£11.50+), and if his mount is on a going day, or at least back to the form of that soft ground second at Haydock, then I’d expect him to go very well at a nice price. 

bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap)

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