After his Handicap Lucky 15 last week, Matty Sutcliffe is back with four of his most confident selections for the Cheltenham Festival. Here is his ultimate 2025 Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15.
L’Eau du Sud – Arkle
I’ve deliberated for a while now whether to take on Majborough as last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner has impressed over fences this season, but he’s made all/most on both occasions and I just wonder if something takes him on for the lead in the Arkle, it might expose a aw in him we’ve yet to see. He was novicey early on in the Irish Arkle and while I certainly don’t doubt his engine and class, I’m slightly sceptical that he warrants being a clear favourite in the opener as you can’t afford to make any early mistakes here.
L’EAU DU SUD is perhaps more accurately priced at a general 4/1, but I could envisage him going off shorter on the day if the clear forecast is anything to go by. I don’t actually think we’ve seen the best of L’Eau Du Sud over fences yet, but what he have seen is a plethora of tools required to be a top level chaser that we haven’t yet with Majborough. He made all to win at Stratford on chase debut off top-weight, recovering from an early error to win in a canter, running through 4th line strongly.
He then contested the Arkle Trial over C&D on quick ground and I thought it was visually very impressive. For a novice to travel and jump around Cheltenham the way he did was exceptional, and again, he was doing all of his best work up the hill which can only be a positive, completing his final furlongs over three seconds quicker than the next three home.
It was Sandown that impressed me even more however, as he battled on gamely to beat Touch Me Not on ground I don’t think he prefers at all. Sometimes with these French horses, we presume they’ll prefer the softer conditions as they tend to do all their winning on soft/heavy ground around Auteuil, but to me, L’Eau Du Sud looks a much better animal on good ground. It was slightly disconcerting to see him have to work hard late on to beat Rubaud in the Kingmaker, but in hindsight, the pair took each other on quite early on and Harry Skelton possibly went unnecessarily early on L’Eau du Sud having kicked on from four out. He responded to Skelton’s late urgings, and given he gave the runner up 5lbs who won next time out in G2 company, and the pair pulled sixteen lengths clear of the third, it mightn’t have been a performance to knock at all.
Five-year-olds haven’t won an Arkle since Voy Por Ustedes in 2006, and there’s just a slight niggling doubt in my mind that Majborough won’t be suited to a test of this nature just yet in his career. L’Eau du Sud has had 11 more races than the Mullins inmate, we’ve seen how versatile he can be regarding tactics/trip, and he just appears the most rock solid play out of the pair with the general 4/1 still representing some value at this stage.
Unexpected Party – Grand Annual
The longer I try to find something else to pair up UNEXPECTED PARTY with in the Grand Annual, the more confidence I develop for the Skelton grey. He was an ante-post play in for the column earlier this year for this contest but there’s still some value to be had in the general 8/1.
He remains 6lbs higher than that last winning mark, but he has come down 5lbs since the start of the season and they have been ‘playing the game’ with him. He didn’t stay the 2m4f in the Old Roan when beaten ten lengths from 3lbs out of the weights on seasonal debut, but he fared little chance in rear and it wasn’t too bad of an eFFort given the general intentions, FInishing six length behind Stage Star who latterly FInished a 3/4L second to L’Homme Presse giving him 4lbs.
He then ran in a graduation chase at Carlisle and it didn’t do the yard any favours with Kalif Du Berlais coming down, as the 4/11F would have won well and Unexpected Party would have dropped 2lbs for it. Skelton kicked very early and that paved the way for Nell’s Son to collar him in the last few strides, who franked that form generously when beating Matata next time out off a 6lbs higher mark, with that one now rated 161 after at Windsor next time out.
Unexpected Party matched that Grand Annual RPR when a thirteen length fourth to Jonbon in the Shloer Chase, which was 11-length close to Jonbon when first beaten by him at Sandown two seasons ago. It was an impressive effort from Unexpected Party there, who wasn’t entirely put into the contest in rear but he could easily have weakened out of things entirely, but he was only under a second slower than the trio ahead of him in the final furlong having ran his own separate race. His latest effort was the most eye-catching, having lost a shoe in the process of being the only one to come from out of the pack in rear to make any effort up the straight, with the handicapper kingly dropping him a pound in the process.
He’s 6lbs better off with last years’ second Liberty Hunter who despite that, is the favourite in here so although he returns higher in the weights a mark of 144 can still underestimate him with this potential better ground to suit even more.
Just A Rose – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Paul Nicholls is yet to win the Dawn Run, but both of his best chances of a festival winner this season come here and the unexposed JUST A ROSE gets the nod. The Saint Des Saints mare cost £175,000 after beating Country Mile in a point to point, with that one now rated 137 for Dan Skelton. She was off the track for over a year before demolishing the eld at Taunton over 2m3f, the same route which Golden Ace began her journey to the Mares Novice success last season. The form is admittedly nothing to shout about, but visually I thought she was seriously impressive there given how she readily brushed pass Seymourjohn on the turn to come home twenty six lengths clear with two fluent leaps up the straight.
She was over four seconds quicker than the second in the final four furlongs, and twelve lengths quicker than the 135-rated winner of the 0-150 handicap later in the card. She was supposed to go down the Jane Seymour route next time out to follow the same path as the last two winners of the Dawn Run in You Wear It Well and Golden Ace, but Nicholls was keen not to run her in desperate ground and I’ve no issues with her coming here fresh given her record thus far.
She’s entirely unexposed, but she brings just as much potential as anything in here and I think at a general 16/1 she’s one of the best bets of the festival at this stage.
Taponthego – Martin Pipe
TAPONTHEGO wasn’t on my radar until the Henry De Bromhead prole piece from last week, but unless this Kopeck De Mel is the second coming then I think Taponthego could go very close here off a handy mark. The Champs Elysees gelding is guaranteed a run at number twenty four in the cloth, and smacks of a ‘plot’ to give the yard only their third handicap success at the Festival.
He finished second to Fleur In The Park at Wexford on debut in October, with the winner hitting the frame in four successive graded contests since including a neck second to The Yellow Clay at Navan. Taponthego then beat McLaurey nine lengths next time out when upped in trip to this distance at Tipperary, who’s franked that form considerably since having landed the 74k handicap at Leopardstown last time out now rated 133. On that form alone, Taponthego has potential to be a 140s type, and that holds up given he finished four lengths behind Ol Man Dingle next time out, who’s now rated 139 having finished three lengths behind McLaurey next time out himself.
The latter two efforts were no doubt in a bid to qualify for a handicap at Cheltenham having travelled in rear on both occasions, finishing four lengths behind 2022 Champion Bumper third James’s Gate and he was never put into contention at Punchestown last time out.
His best form has come in big elds which is a plus for the Martin Pipe, and he’s bred to appreciate a drying surface with the step back up in trip to suit.
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