Arguably the biggest middle distance feature chase race of the season which has seen some great horses land this in the past. Named after a nearby village, the Melling Chase has been in place since 1991 and has always held Grade 1 status.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in comparison to the last 10, to see if I can figure out what it takes to land this event.
KEY TRENDS
- The winner will be 6 to 9-years-old and more recently no older than 8-years-old
- Respect favourites and the top 3 in the market; likely to be no bigger than 6/1
- Will have an OR of 161 or higher
- Probably didn’t win last time out but did run at Cheltenham
- Will have run at Aintree before but doesn’t have to have won here
- Likely to have 2 or 3 wins this season
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 8/24 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 9yo – 7/24 (29%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
7, 8 and 9-year-olds have the best strike-rates this century however it’s 6, 7 and 8-year-olds who have faired best relative to their number of runners in the last 10 renewals. The last 9 renewals have been won by horses no older than 8.
7-year-olds have been profitable to back blind in the last 10 but they do show a small £2.76 loss this century.
PRICE
- Favourites – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Priced 6/1 or shorter – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind both this century and in the last 10 running’s with a 45% strike rate across both periods (including joint favourites). Most winners come from the Top 3 in the market and are priced 6/1 or shorter.
If you were to back all runners priced 4/1 or shorter blind though, you’d have a £3.75 profit this century but £6 from the last 10 for a 33% ROI.
RATINGS – (Since 2008)
- Winners with an OR of 161 or more – 15/16 (94%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners holding the highest OR in the field – 8/16 (50%) & 3/10 (30%)
If you were to back all runners with an OR of 161 or higher since 2008, you’d be showing a near £9 profit, that’s about the same amount as in the last 10 too.
Backing the runner with the highest OR in the field has found half of the winners since 2008 but just 3 of the last 10. The more recent data shows a 10% negative ROI but it’s sitting at a 93% positive ROI since 2008. Worth considering at least.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 6/24 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Second last time out – 9/24 (38%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Last ran at Cheltenham – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners are a big loss maker in this race with a loss of £13.20 this century and that came in the last 10 running’s. Horses who finished second last time out have a reasonable 28% and 25% strike-rate this century and from the last 10 respectively but they wouldn’t make or lose you much money.
Most winners last ran at Cheltenham and if not, you want to look at Ascot last time out runners. Of those who came from Cheltenham; 13 ran in the Champion Chase (but none of the last 4 winners) and 6 came from the Ryanair.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Aintree – 10/20 (50%) & 2/9 (22%)
Most winners will have been to Aintree before but in more recent years, it’s not been a positive to have won here before. That’s something which can’t really be used a negative, but it does show that running here alone is more important than running and winning here.
SEASON FORM
- Winners who had 3-5 runs this season – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 2-3 wins this season – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
Given we know most winners of this race didn’t win last time out we know that being unbeaten this season isn’t essential. Across both periods, having 3-5 runs has produced most winners but it’s not profitable to just back that blind.
Looking at horses who had 2-3 wins this season would be showing a 24% ROI this century and a 12% ROI in the last 10 running’s
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 70%)
- Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 16/24 (67%) & 5/10 (50%)
Most winners had won a Grade 1 before now and half of the last 10 had won more than one.
Honours Roll
2024 – Jonbon (FR)
2023 – Pic DOrhy (FR)
2022 – Fakir Doudairies (FR)
2021 – Fakir Doudairies (FR)
2019 – Min (FR)
2018 – Politologue (FR)
2017 – Fox Norton (FR)
2016 – Gods Own (IRE)
2015 – Don Cossack (GER)
2014 – Boston Bob (IRE)
2013 – Sprinter Sacre (FR)
2012 – Finians Rainbow (IRE)
2011 – Master Minded (FR)
2010 – Albertas Run (IRE)
2009 – Voy Por Ustedes (FR)
2008 – Voy Por Ustedes (FR)
2007 – Monets Garden (IRE)
2006 – Hi Cloy (IRE)
2005 – Moscow Flyer (IRE)
2004 – Moscow Flyer (IRE)
2003 – Native Upmanship (IRE)
2002 – Native Upmanship (IRE)
2001 – Fadalko (FR)
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