The Midlands National traditionally brings the curtain down on Cheltenham Festival week. Run on the Saturday after the exhilarating four days at Prestbury Park, Matty Sutcliffe previews Uttoxeter’s big race with his ante-post verdict.
Saint Davy – 14/1 1pt EW 4 places
Staging the Midlands National on a Saturday after four days of Cheltenham is like stepping into the first nightclub after a long pub crawl. You know you probably don’t have the effort or funds to be sucked into it, but for the love of the game, it’s a seductive proposal.
First staged in 1969, the valuable contest is marked as the second longest race in the British calendar, succeeded only by the Aintree spectacle. While it lacks the overall class of the Merseyside equivalent, there’s very little between the gruelling effort required to take the race, with the 25 fences generally run on soft/heavy ground.
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Last Five Renewals
2024
- Winner – Beauport (8yo)
- Weight – 11-4
- Rating – 140
- Cloth Number – 2
- Seasonal form figures – 52PU
- Record in class two company or above – 122141249F52PU
- Record at 3m+ – 49F52PU
- Headgear – n/a
- General track position throughout – In touch
2023
- Winner – Major Dundee (8yo)
- Weight – 10-2
- Rating – 129
- Cloth Number – 15
- Seasonal form figures – 03
- Record in class two company or above – 2303
- Record at 3m+ – 1012303
- Headgear – n/a
- General track position throughout – Midfield
2022
- Winner – Screaming Colours (11yo)
- Weight – 10-6
- Rating – 142
- Cloth Number – 7
- Seasonal form figures – 2
- Record in class two company or above – 42
- Record at 3m+ – 85122242
- Headgear – tongue-tie/cheek-pieces
- General track position throughout – Midfield
2021
- Winner – Time To Get Up (8yo)
- Weight – 10-10
- Rating – 138
- Cloth Number – 14
- Seasonal form figures – 341
- Record in class two company or above – n/a
- Record at 3m+ – 21
- Headgear – tongue tie
- General track position throughout – Tracked leaders
2020
- Winner – Truckers Lodge (8yo)
- Weight – 10-7
- Rating – 141
- Cloth Number – 4
- Seasonal form figures – 412
- Record in class two company or above – 4222
- Record at 3m+ – 12212412
- Headgear – Cheekpieces
- General track position throughout – Prominent
Notable Ten Year Trends
- Weight – Just two winners carried over 11-0+, including last year where the forecast was the second top and top weight. The finishing position of top-weights reads 2nd, 5th, PU, 12th, PU, PU, 4th, 4th, PU, PU
- Generally speaking we can avoid those to the fore of the weights. Beauport appeared something of an anomaly last season, as he’s one of the rare few higher in the cloth who’ve won the race and still progressed further, as generally it tends to bottom others.
- Rating – The ratings of the last ten winners read: 140, 129, 142, 138, 141, 135, 135, 130, 138, 136 (142-129).
- SP – The last ten SP’s read 18/1, 12/1, 12/1, 3/1, 6/1, 20/1, 16/1, 11/1, 16/1 6/1 (One winning favourite, just three single figure SP’s).
- Season – 7/10 had only had three or less runs the season.
- Break – 5/10 were returning from a break of 51 days or more
- Headgear – 5/10 were wearing either a tongue tie, cheekpieces or both.
- Jockey – 4/10 were ridden by a conditional jockey
- Track position – 4/10 were ridden prominently/in touch, 4/10 were ridden in midfield, 2/10 were held up.
Leading Market Contenders
Aworkinprogress was certainly that for the early part of his career, but since being stepped up in trip and tackling fences, he’s unbeaten in his last ve starts for Nick Giord and JP McManus. He’s been shrewdly campaigned to maximise his winning potential give his first three victories over fences came carrying big weights and winning within under a length and 3/4, and he posted a career best effort last time out when making smooth headway in rear to comfortably take a 0-125 at Lingeld, nudged out to win eased down with a subsequent 7lbs rise looking lenient if anything. There’s no telling where his ceiling lies as he’s progressing with every run, but the step up to 4m2f is a complete unknown and he would have to be the youngest winner of the race since Fighting Chance in 1976, and a mark of 121 could see him running from out of the weights.
Tanganiyka is next in the market at a general 8/1 but his participation would be in question given he’s also prominent in the betting for the National Hunt Chase. He’s progressed well over fences this season, latterly posting a career best effort when a comfortable winner of a 0-130 at Carlisle over three miles. He’s a proven performer in class two+ events, but whether this trip would unearth further progress is entirely open to debate.
Apple Away has been a touch disappointing over fences having landed the G1 Sefton Novices’ at Aintree on her last start over hurdles, starting at no bigger than 5/1 in all of her ten efforts over fences, though winning just two of them. Connections have earmarked the Grand National as the aim this term, but given she’d need over thirty ahead of her in the betting to come out, she could miss the cut and this valuable contest could potentially be where we see her return to the winners enclosure. She’s been in consistent form this season without winning, staying on well without winning and her latest effort in the Grand National trial at Haydock behind Famous Bridge, pulling well clear of some assured stayers such as Welsh National winner Val Dancer and Kim Muir second Git Maker suggests that this 4m2f trip is well within reach.
Mr Vango is another who could potentially miss the cut in the Grand National but he also has a Cheltenham Festival entry for the Kim Muir, which would raise an eyebrow regarding his participation in here. A mark of 143 would likely see him carrying weight to the fore of the eld in here, but nonetheless, he has been a revelation over staying trips and this test could easily spark further improvement. He was a game winner of the London National which has seen the form franked by the second, who beat the subsequent Ladbrokes Trophy winner next time out, and he was an even more impressive winner of the Peter Marsh chase at Haydock in first time cheekpieces. He would need soft/heavy ground to be seen at his optimum best, but that is often the case in the Midlands National and if turning up on the day then he could be a big player, but he may be worth waiting to play once the Cheltenham declarations are in.
Ioupy Collonges is the only one of the top ve in the market to have this as their sole upcoming entry and he has been in career best form of late, staying on well to win a 10k contest at Wincanton over 3m1f before gallant second in the Dick Hunt Trophy over the same C&D, giving 18lbs to the winner. Paul Nicholls won this with a similarly progressive sort in Truckers Lodge in 2020, but that one had form over 3m6f and Ioupy Collonges wasn’t all that strong at the finish last time out, for all if getting a run here, he’d be contesting at the rear end of the weights.
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£270,000 buy Saint Davy was earmarked as a Midlands National contender at the start of the season and looks a typical Jonjo O’Neil ‘plot’ for the contest. The yard won the race with Time To Get Up as a novice in 2021 who was having only his fourth start over fence o a mark of 138, and they also won it with the subsequent Gold Cup winner Synchronised in 2010, who was also having his fourth start over fences as a novice, stepping up markedly in trip after winning a Fontwell novice chase over 2m5f last time out. Saint Davy showed his class when winning the valuable Heroes Handicap at Sandown last season, and he made a promising start over fences when a four length third to Handstands in the Esher Novices’ Chase, travelling well in behind leaders before pecking on landing three out. He stayed on strongly thereafter, just failing to get for second past one rated 8lbs higher, and given the winner is now rated 154, he could be well handicapped off 135. I’d take his last effort with a pinch of salt as it may have been a pipe opener for this, and given he’s by Balko out of a Poliglote mare, he’s bred to stay this marathon trip.
Anglers Crag was possibly being lined up for a repeat success for the Eider Chase last time out, but was withdrawn at the start having unseated his jockey and getting loose. He’s been off the boil since that Eider success, but he was a big eye-catcher in the Edinburgh National and is now only 4lbs higher than the Eider Chase victory, which has worked out well in places. He’s one of a few in here with assured stamina and a sole entry, and couldn’t be discounted if turning up.
Verdict
I’m relatively uneasy about playing to the fore of the market in here, as a couple would be running from out of the weights if getting declared and the others are prominent in some Cheltenham markets. Several of the others will have had a hard enough race in the Eider Chase, and I keep coming back to SAINT DAVY, who looks to have stamina in abundance for this test with a rare touch of unexposed class to garnish. The yard will be keen to land this prize having had great success in the race, and with the sole entry, the early season target and the initial promise over fences, everything points to a strong run from this well built, expensive son of Balko who has an excellent 4/9 career record.
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