A big feature handicap straight after the Cheltenham Festival has 25 fences to be jumped and is a race targeted by plenty.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in comparison with the last decade, to see if we can profile the typical winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 8, 9 or 11-years-old (No 10-year-old winner since 1994)
- Second favourites outperform favourites but respect short-priced jollies
- Only 1 winner this century priced bigger than 20/1
- Likely to be rated 135-143 and carrying 10-12 or less
- Runners who Fell or Pulled Up last time out are profitable to back blind
- Most winners last ran 31-90 day ago
- Has run at 3m 4f or further but doesn’t have to have won
- Will NOT have won over further than 3m 7f
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/23 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 4/23 (17%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 8yo – 9/23 (39%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 9yo – 7/23 (31%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 0/23 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 2/23 (9%) & 2/10 (20%)
8, 9 and 11-year-olds have been profitable to back blind in the last decade but it’s the 8-year-olds and the 11-year-olds with the best strike rates and the latter shows a 66% ROI.
This century 8-year-olds have been the best achievers but closely followed by 9-year-olds and no 10-year-old winners since 1994.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/23 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Second favourites – 6/23 (26%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Priced 9/2 to 6/1 – 6/23 (26%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Priced 14/1 to 20/1 – 6/23 (26%) & 4/10 (40%)
Backing favourites blind would lose money in both periods measured, but you’d show over a 50% ROI this century for backing second favourites blind.
There’s only been one runner priced 9/4 or shorter this century and they won, in the last decade there have been 3 runners priced 4/1 or shorter with one of those winning.
Backing runners priced 9/2 to 6/1 blind over both periods has been profitable and in recent years backing horses with an SP of 14/1 to 20/1 has shown a 35% ROI.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 135 and 143 – 10/23 (43%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners carrying 10-12 or less – 20/23 (87%) & 8/10 (80%)
There have been 8 winners this century who were rated between 135 and 143 and they account for 80% of the winners in that range this century. Looks to be a turning trend.
The vast majority of winners carry 10-12 or less with there being 7 years between last years winner and the one before who carried more. It was 5 years before that for the other, so unlikely to happen in quick succession. It’s not profitable to back blind unless you put a lower limit of 10-2 on it where it’ll show a small loss this century but a 25% ROI in the last decade.
Combining the two measures over the last decade has found 6 winners and shows a 97% ROI to SP but 196% using Betfair SP.
LAST RUN
- Won last time out – 6/23 (26%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Top 3 last time out – 15/23 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Fell or pulled up last time out – 6/23 (26%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Last ran 31-90 days ago – 13/23 (57%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last time out winners are a big loss maker to follow blind and while backing those who finished Top 3 last time out doesn’t make money blind either, it does find most winners.
Runners who fell or pulled up last time out have as many wins as last time out winners, but they account for far fewer runners and show a reasonable profit over both periods measured; 74% ROI in the last decade and 55% this century.
Most winners last ran between 31 and 90 days ago and while it’s a small loss make this century, it’s been profitable in the last decade.
MAX DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had already RUN at 3m 4f or further – 17/23 (74%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had already WON at 3m 4f or further – 6/23 (26%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Winners who had run at Uttoxeter – 6/23 (26%) & 4/10 (40%)
Most winners of this race had run over 3-miles and 4-furlongs or further before although most hadn’t won at those trips.
No winner this century has won over further than 3m 7f and while most winners had NOT run at the track, 4 of the 6 who did this century, came in the last decade.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who were NOT wearing any headgear – 16/23 (70%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners of this race were not wearing any headgear, and this has been profitable to back blind to Betfair SP with a 21% ROI in the last decade and 16% this century. It’s not been profitable to back blind to industry SP though, with a negative 2% ROI in the last decade and negative 12% ROI this century.
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