The Craven Stakes features on day two of Newmarket’s debut meeting of the flat season. GG tipster Joe Napier has picked out four bets on the day across the Rowley Mile races, including a 33/1 outsider in the big one…
1.50 Newmarket – bet365 Handicap
Al Misbar is likely to win at some point as a half-brother to Battaash, but he is weighted beyond his achievements to date, with his best effort coming over 7f on soft ground. 6f trips have so far produced his worst two efforts from four to date.
The wellbeing and development of few of these three-year-olds is proven, but one for whom it is is DOUBLE RUSH for Charlie Hills. He remains towards the bottom of the weights, but impressed in getting off the mark at Wolverhampton last month by four lengths.
He was not beaten far behind Defence Minister and Dark Cloud Rising at Haydock last September and broke much quicker from the stalls at Wolves last time to suggest he can lay up early. Hills won this in 2015 and has had two runner-ups in the last three runnings, and his nominated charge this year could fill a similar position.
2.25 Newmarket – bet365 Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes
The Gosdens were a nose away from winning three of the last four runnings of this debutants maiden when Lead Artist was so narrowly denied last year, and they didn’t have a runner in the 2023 edition. Their record stands to be respected, ensuring Caughtredhanded and ALTAREQ are the top two considerations.
The former is related to two first time out winners, including one for the Gosdens, but the selection appeals most, being a full sibling to Listed heroine Al Asifah, who won by nearly five lengths on debut at Haydock on her first ever appearance.
There is little to split the pair overall, but it may just be that this son of Frankel is better bred for the 1m trip on debut.
3.35 Newmarket – bet365 Craven Stakes
Opera Ballo has done his winning against tougher fields so far, but his profile and THE WATCHER’s are fairly similar coming into this and the price discrepancy looks too big. It could be a hangover from Karl Burke’s last all-weather superstar Night Raider, who appeared not to take to turf.
However, The Watcher is related to two turf winners and the son of Invincible Spirit shows no signs on pedigree of being a synthetic one trick pony. He won well despite keenness on debut, then scored by five lengths at Wolverhampton in February, albeit at odds of 1/5.
The runner-up has won well since though, so there is form in the book, and Clifford Lee may well choose to press on positively based on that effort. There are plenty of runners here with strong juvenile form, but he is unexposed and open to enough improvement to suggest his odds are too great.
5.20 Newmarket – Watch Live Racing At bet365 Handicap
There will be far weaker outsiders running on Wednesday than JUMBY, who comes in here as the top-weight, but might be able to defy that all the way to the line in the final race on the card.
The seven-year-old has twice been placed on his seasonal return, while two seasons ago he was fifth in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes on his comeback despite missing the start by at least double that. Last season, his break was halved due to running in a Saudi Arabia Group 2 in which he was mid-division.
His mark of 105 is reasonable for a Group 2 and 3 winner though, and he twice ran well in handicap company last season. He is significantly better off at the weights for runs behind the two favourites here in Nifty Fifty and Ten Pounds given they are now beyond their three-year-old allowances, and the old boy might surprise as a former course and distance scorer.
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