Dave Young takes a look at the Northumberland Plate trends for what is set to be a hugely competitive renewal of the staying handicap showpiece at Newcastle on Saturday 28th June.
Moved from the turf since 2016, but I’ve looked at all renewals this century and all since the switch to see if there have been any significant changes to the profile of the winner of this race
KEY TRENDS
- No real age bias but likely to be aged 4 to 7-years-old
- Favourites are profitable to back blind and often run well in defeat too
- Ideally drawn in stalls 10-17 and NOT drawn on either wing
- No huge weight bias but probably will carry 9 stone or more
- Look to horses who placed first or second last time out
- Should have run at 2 miles + and preference to those who have won over the trips
- Respect headgear sporting runners as they outperform market expectations
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/9 (0%)
- 4yo – 6/25 (24%) & 2/9 (22%)
- 5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/9 (22%)
- 6yo – 8/25 (32%) & 2/9 (22%)
- 7yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/9 (22%)
- 8yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/9 (0%)
- 9yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/9 (11%)
There have only been three 3-year-olds to have run in this race with one of those winning. 8 & 9-year-olds are profitable to back blind this century but only 9-year-olds are also profitable in the last nine renewals.
Overall, there’s no real bias to age from these figures
PRICE (including joints and co favs over each period)
- Favourites – 6/28 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Favourites Placing – 15/28 (54%) & 7/10 (70%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind across both periods with a £2 profit this century rising to £5.50 in the last nine renewals. Looking at the place percentage of favourites also shows that they’re often there or thereabouts.
Price bands are relatively well balanced with all loss makers blind and possibly could be worth avoiding the 50/1+ risks and the band of 17/2 to 12/1 if you really wanted to try and reduce the field.
DRAW
- Drawn in the LOWEST 4 stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 1/9 (11%)
- Drawn in the HIGHEST 4 stalls – 3/25 (12%) & 2/9 (22%)
- Stall 10 or higher – 12/25 (48%) & 7/9 (78%)
The wings maybe aren’t the place to be since the switch away from turf and in the those nine renewals since, most winners have come from stalls 10 to 17 which has been profitable to back blind
WEIGHT AND RATING
- Carrying 9-0 or MORE – 10/25 (40%) & 6/9 (67%)
- Rated 89 to 101 – 18/25 (72%) & 7/9 (78%)
The more I look into each category the more it’s appearing difficult to find genuine profiles in each. We can find the bands to find the majority of winners but none are profitable to back blind so this assault will have to be in combining multiple markers. I would say from the weight and rating section that it’s probably best to focus on horses carrying 9 stone or more.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 7/25 (28%) & 3/9 (33%)
- Top 2 last time out – 16/25 (64%) & 8/9 (89%)
- 31 days ago or more – 14/25 (56%) & 6/9 (67%)
Backing runners who finished first last time out has been profitable blind since the switch, but would be a loser this century. Backing runners who finished second last time out has been profitable across both periods and in conjunction with those who finished first last time out too would make a profitable strategy across both periods.
Most winners last ran 31 or more days ago, but from a £1 level stake perspective it’s only better this century and in the last nine renewals there’s only a £1 improvement.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Newcastle – 16/25 (64%) & 5/9 (55%)
The winning percentage for runners who had run at Newcastle before sits just over 5% and it’s just under for those who were having their first look here. The actual vs expectation is in the 0.7’s for each (as expected would be 1.0) but it’s still marginally preferable to have been here than not from a strike rate perspective but from a level stake view you would lose less money backing runners who were having their first look here. Again, no real help here.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 2 miles or further – 23/25 (92%) & 8/9 (89%)
- Winners who had WON at 2 miles or further – 17/23 (74%) & 5/8 (63%)
It might seem an obvious marker to look at but if you backed every runner who hadn’t run at 2 miles or further you would have lost £45.5 this century and £22.50 from the last nine renewals.
You’d get away from the last nine renewals with a small profit if you backed all runners who hadn’t won at 2 miles or further but it’s over an £80 loss this century.
HEADGEAR
- Did NOT wear Headgear – 18/25 (72%) & 5/9 (55%)
Most winners of this race across both periods did NOT wear any headgear but it’s a big loss maker with £136.5 gone this century and £65 of that in the last nine renewals.
Runners who DID sport headgear have a lower number of wins, but they outperform expectation and do show a modest profit blind.
HONOUR ROLL – (GB if not noted)
- 2024 – Onesmoothoperator (USA)
- 2023 – Calling The Wind (IRE)
- 2022 – Trueshan (FR)
- 2021 – Nicholas T
- 2020 – Caravan Of Hope (IRE)
- 2019 – Who Dares Wins (IRE)
- 2018 – Withhold
- 2017 – Higher Power
- 2016 – Antiquarium (IRE)
- 2015 – Quest For More (IRE)
- 2014 – Angel Gabrial (IRE)
- 2013 – Tominator
- 2012 – Ile De Re (FR)
- 2011 – Tominator
- 2010 – Overturn (IRE)
- 2009 – Som Tala
- 2008 – Arc Bleu (GER)
- 2007 – Juniper Girl (IRE)
- 2006 – Toldo (IRE)
- 2005 – Sergeant Cecil
- 2004 – Mirjan (IRE)
- 2003 – Unleash (USA)
- 2002 – Bangalore
- 2001 – Archduke Ferdinand (FR)
- 2000 – Bay Of Islands