The Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes opens its doors to all age groups and nationalities, with the two-year-olds able to take on their more experienced counterparts for this coveted prize. 14 go to post this year, and Joe Napier runs the rule over them all.
Surrey’s own Live In The Dream blazed the trail from the front for a surprise success a year ago and returns to defend that title.
ASFOORA
(Henry Dwyer/Oisin Murphy)
We would not have been familiar with Asfoora as of three months ago. The Australian mare had enjoyed success enough in her homeland, winning at Group 2 level at Caulfield, but never quite breaking through at the top level. Her best effort was a second place finish in the Group 1 Charter Keck Cramer Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley.
However, British racing fans are more than familiar with her now. She did not make a huge splash on her debut on these shores at Haydock, but soft ground was a reasonable excuse, especially as she won in grand style for a first top level victory in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot. A short head second to Big Evs at Glorious Goodwood, when carrying a penalty, will not have dented connections’ confidence for this event one bit and she is the obvious favourite in a division her country excels in.
BIG EVS
(Mick Appleby/Tom Marquand)
The home favourite in so many ways, Big Evs is now part of the fabric of British racing. Trained up north with a no nonsense racing attitude, he is a bona fide star, backed up by his globetrotting CV and strike rate. British sprinting has not always played host to horses of his talent, but many would love him to demonstrate it to the full on Friday.
That strike rate is 66.6%, winning six of his nine career starts including wins at the Breeders’ Cup, Royal Ascot and two at Glorious Goodwood. York suits his front-running style too, and his down-the-field effort in this race last year can be readily ignored given he was a juvenile at the time. The one potential snag could be the draw, which has him berthed nearest the stands in 14. A high draw has been favourable just once in the last five years, and a low number is usually preferable.
BRADSELL
(Archie Watson/Hollie Doyle)
Conversely to Big Evs, Bradsell is not known as a superstar. Perhaps that is down to him only having run the same number of races in a year-longer career, but he possesses as many Group 1s, having claimed the 2023 edition of the King’s Stand Stakes, before finishing third in this contest a year ago.
That performance is worth upgrading, as he comfortably led those home nearer the stands and still finished within two lengths of a winner who had most go his way. It was slightly inexplicable why he was so disappointing at the Curragh next time out, but he reappeared after almost a year off to win in France earlier this month, and building on that to challenge here looks a distinct possibility with a better draw this time around.
BELIEVING
(George Boughey/Ryan Moore)
Much more of a slow burner, the flame is now glowing bright for Believing, a superb improver over the last two seasons. It was a shock when she placed in last season’s Sprint Cup at 66/1 over 6f, but two wins this term at the minimum distance, including a cosy success at Group 2 level at the Curragh, means she is closing in at this level.
She ran in both Group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot, finishing fourth in each, closing in over 5f and fading late over 6f. The former is evidently preferable, and over Goodwood’s very sharp sprint trip, she finished within a length of Big Evs and Asfoora by the line. There will undoubtedly be a strong pace to aim at here, but while she is better off at the weights with the winner that day, she is 2lb worse off with the runner-up and might also have a poor draw in stall 13. Ryan Moore will have to work his magic.
THE FIELD
Defending champion Live In The Dream has not always raced with quite the same zest this campaign, but his form has not been markedly lower than it was prior to this contest last term. Stall 5 is next door to where he was drawn last year and a bold bid is expected again from a kinder draw than Big Evs, albeit he needs to watch out for Ponntos in stall 1, who flew out to lead at Goodwood before fading.
The Czech raider probably will not cut it at this grade, but might alter the complexion of the race if going hard, while Regional in stall 2, a Group 1 winner at 6f, is another who will be prominent if possible. He has enough talent to last home though, but might have to show he is capable of taking a lead, not quite being as explosive as the aforementioned pair.
York is not usually a track to come from off the pace at sprint trips, but all of Starlust, Clarendon House and Azure Blue have done so before here. None of them has quite cut it when upped to this class before, but enough of a burn up could bring them into play from decent draws.
Makarova and Washington Heights have both claimed Group 3 honours this term, though the former would prefer some cut, and the latter has spent almost his entire career at 6f. Nevertheless, a strongly run race could suit and stall 10 could be workable.
Conversely Frost At Dawn, while a Group winner in Dubai, has been off for a long time since and has never raced on turf in the UK. So Majestic is the only member of this field who looks outclassed.
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Value Punts – York Ebor Meeting Day 3 Tips
Matty Sutcliffe struck early in the York Ebor meeting with a 10/1 value winner, and turns his eye to Friday for five selections on day three of the festival. 1:50 York – Sky Bet Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) – Lieber Power 1pt WIN 8/1 LIEBER POWER didn’t quite kick on last term after…
Wed 21 Aug 2024
VERDICT
Live In The Dream is not ruled out from repeating last year’s trick, but with plenty of other pace angles, the favoured runners are those who will lay up just behind the pace. The best two chances therefore belong to BRADSELL and Asfoora, with preference for the former at the prices after a highly promising return in France. He was third last year without the benefit of a kind draw and can make amends, though the Australian mare will take some beating after her Royal Ascot win and narrow Glorious Goodwood defeat. Whichever of them gets the best break could decide it, though should the draw bias be reversed, which is not out of the question, Big Evs and Believing would certainly hold sway in stalls 13 and 14. For what we know historically though, they look to be disadvantaged.
- Bradsell
- Asfoora
- Live In The Dream
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