The Paddy Power Gold Cup is one of the early highlights in a jumps season that builds towards the turn of the year. Matty Sutcliffe has analysed the field after the weights have been announced, and has a 12/1 bet who returns in the race…
Headline Tip – Ga Law 12/1 1pt WIN
The valuable 2m4f Paddy Power Gold Cup takes centre stage on the Old Course at Cheltenham next weekend in what is often a notoriously open contest.
Ginny’s Destiny tops the market to land consecutive Paddy Power Gold Cups for Paul Nicholls, who won it last season with his 2023 Turners’ winner Stage Star, becoming the only winning favourite in the race within the last decade.
Last Five Renewals
2023:
- Winner – Stage Star (7yo)
- Official rating – 155
- Seasonal debut
- Cloth number – 2
- Weight – 11-7
- Season prior – 1st C3 Novice Chase, 2nd Berkshire Chase, 1st C3 Novice Chase, 1st C2 Novice Handicap Chase, 1st G1 Turners Chase, 5th G1 Manifesto Novices Chase.
- Previous course record – 11
2022:
- Winner – Ga Law (6yo)
- Official rating – 142
- Season: 3rd in G2 Old Roan Chase
- Cloth number – 11
- Weight – 11-0
- Season prior – 2nd G2 Pencil Novices’ Chase (returned from 603 days off, was a 3x chase winner including G2 Rising Stars’ Novices the season before).
- Previous course record – course debut.
2021:
- Winner – Midnight Shadow
- Official rating – 147
- Season – 3rd in G2 Old Roan Chase
- Cloth number – 8
- Weight – 11-5
- Season prior – 10th Old Roan, 2nd December Gold Cup, PU C2 Hurdle.
- Previous course record – 01012
2020:
- Winner – Coole Cody
- Official rating – 137
- Season – 1st C3 Novice Chase, 2nd C3 Novice Chase, 2nd C2 Novice Chase
- Cloth number – 16
- Weight – 10-5
- Season prior – 8th C2 Welsh Champion Hurdle, 3rd C3 Hurdle, 4th C3 Hurdle, PU C1G3 Handicap Hurdle
- Previous course record – 102
2019:
- Winner – Happy Diva
- Official rating – 143
- Season – 2nd Listed Wetherby Chase
- Cloth number – 11
- Weight – 10-13
- Season prior – 2nd Listed Colin Parker Chase, BD in this race, 2nd in Cheltenham New Years Day G3 Chase, 3rd C2 Ascot Chase, 1st Listed Mares Huntingdon Chase, UR Newbury G3 Chase, 2nd Cheltenham C2 Mares Chase
- Previous course record – 8BD22
Notable Trends
- The official ratings of the last ten winners is between 134 – 156
- 9/10 winners had previously ran at Cheltenham
- Top-weights are 0/10
- 9/10 carried 11-5 or less
- 8/10 carried 11-0 or less
- 6/10 were in the bottom half of the weights
- 8/10 had won or placed on their chase debut
- 2/10 were making their seasonal debut (Caid Du Berlais had ran in the Galway Plate in July)
Leading Market Contenders
Ginny’s Destiny tops the market at 4/1 and has a similar profile to his stablemate Stage Star, in that he’s a second second season chaser who’d previously contested the G1 Turners’ Novices’ Chase at the Festival, though couldn’t quite go one place better to match Stage Star. The eventual aim appears to be the King George for Ginny’s Destiny, and I’ve slight reservations regarding him at this stage as I just wonder whether this will be more of a fitness provider than his ‘gold cup’. For all he is a course winner, he needed the run over C&D on his reappearance last term, and may just come on for this effort.
Imagine is an intriguing contender at 6/1, as we don’t quite know how good he could be for Harry Derham. The son of Montmartre was part of the large consortium of horses sold by the Caldwell Construction owners, and is yet to be seen since January. A mark of 145 could potentially underestimate him, particularly on his two lengths beating over Inothewayurthinkin who’s now rated 158, for all that one has found his feet over three miles so the form might not be as easy to weigh up.
We then have 10/1 the field, headed by Paul Nicholls’ Il Ridoto. It’s amazing when you realise he’s only won four of his twenty four starts, as he always seems to be thereabouts. He’s contested this race the last twice, firstly finishing a five lengths 4th behind Ga Law in 2022 then finishing a four twelve length third in 2023. Both of those efforts came on his seasonal debut, and his best efforts for Paul Nicholls have often come second time up after a break, reading 1312. Paul Nicholls has left a lot to work with on his string this season and very little of them are firing first time up, so given Il Ridoto is having his second run of the season and his second run after wind operation, he has to be considered off his lowest mark since 2021.
In Excelsis Deo has often flattered to deceive for JP McManus and Harry Fry, but he bounced back to winning form in April on the new course when belatedly taking a step back up to this distance. He won his novice chase as a four year old in 2022, though somewhat went backwards that season before returning last year with an eye-catching second to Dancing On My Own in the competitive 2m handicap chase at the Showcase meeting. He was an eye-catcher again when beaten four lengths in the Plate Handicap at the Festival before finally regaining the winning thread, but his jumping let him down when 8/1 for the Galway Plate in July. He’s still relatively unexposed as a 6yo chaser and when his jumping holds up he can put in a smart performance, but I wouldn’t be all that certain he’ll be ready for this first time up for the season.
Ga Law is a general 12/1 price and will carry 2lbs less than when winning this race off a 13lbs higher mark two seasons ago. His form tailed off in six starts later, for all he posted two RPR’s of 158 when falling in a G3 handicap chase at Doncaster and finishing a 9L in in the Ryanair. He bounced back to winning form when taking a similar C&D contest in January, and put behind a poor effort in the Ryanair when second in the G2 Oaksey at Sandown. I thought he put in a very good performance when second on seasonal debut at Chepstow, finishing a two lengths second and giving 22lbs to both the 1st and 3rd. That run will undoubtedly have brought him on for the season, and with natural progression he looks well weighted to record successive attempts in this contest.
Betfair Chase Ante-Post Tips – Matty Sutcliffe’s Early Verdict on Haydock’s Grade 1
This column is the start of a new series of ante-post pieces for GG.co.uk, where I’ll be previewing some of the big upcoming National Hunt races as the early markets come out. We’ll begin with the coveted Grade One Betfair Chase at Haydock (Saturday 23rd November), won last year by Venetia Williams’ Royale Pagaille. Headline…
Fri 01 Nov 2024Verdict
The entries of Protektorat and Stage Star in here mean the likes of Ginny’s Destiny and GA LAW are well treated at the weights, but I suspect the latter will be primed for this more than most and looks set for a strong bid to retain his Paddy Power Gold Cup crown. He posted an RPR of 145 when prepping for this race in 2022, and given he matched his career best RPR of 158 at Chepstow last time out, should he back that effort up then he rates a confident ante-post play at a general 12/1.
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