The Paddy Power Gold Cup is on the horizon. A handicap won by such luminaries as Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander, as well as Stage Star last year, Dave Young has sifted through the trends to try and land you the winner.
Arguably the first major handicap target of the season and, with Grade 3 status, we’ve actually seen plenty of previous Graded winners land the spoils in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, so it’s as good as you can get for this standard.
I’ve looked at all running’s this century and provided some detail into what it’s likely going to take to win this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Will have won at between 2m3f and 2m5f
- Should have run and won at Cheltenham and preferably ran 3+ times here
- Likely to have at least two chase wins
- Preferably has fewer than 10 chase starts
- Horses carrying 10-13 or 11-0 have been profitable to back this century
- Horses rated 146 and 147 have been profitable to back this century
- 3 winners from 9 runners who came from Carlisle last time out
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
All winners were aged between five and nine years old with 43 trying outside that bracket. While seven-year-olds have the highest number of wins they also have the best strike rate per number of runners at 9%, but 9yo’s are the only age you could back blind and a make a profit, with four winners from 56 runners this century making you £7.
While 8yo’s have more winners than 5yo’s they perform at the same strike rate of 4% so ideally you want a six, seven or nine-year-old for this.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/24 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
Favourites haven’t had the best of luck in this race and betting horses priced 4/1 or shorter would be losing you £4.75 this century. Backing horses priced between 9/2 and 6/1 over the same period would have left you level but interestingly if you bet all runners priced 13/2 to 8/1 then you’d have 7 winners and a £13 level stake profit. That means we’re typically looking at horses priced 8/1 or shorter to be winning this race and while we have had 10 winners priced above 8/1, they account for almost 80% of the runners and it’s a massive loss leader with £68 lost from 17/2 to 20/1 and then £93 lost beyond that.
WEIGHT
- Carried 10-13 or 11-0 – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
Trappy figure to work with as it does really depend on who lines up to how the weights play out but it’s profitable to back all runners carrying 10-13 or 11-0 this century with 8 winners from 29 runners for a £40 level stake profit. That’s a huge return on investment so while it might be more luck than judgement to carry that weight, it’s got to be seen as a positive and they are the only two weights that account for more than 2 winners this century.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 137 to 147 – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
137 to 147 seems to be the sweet spot in terms of Official ratings for winners however you’d be losing money if you bet every horse that fit inside that bracket. Betting all runners rated 146 or 147 though would yield a £30.50 profit from and outlay of £39 so much like the weight it’s niche, but worth keeping in mind.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran 15 days ago or less – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Ran 60 days ago or less – 13/24 (54%%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran 121 days ago or more – 10/24 (42%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Won last time out – 6/24 (25%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Ran at Cheltenham, Aintree or Carlisle – 17/24 (71%) & 5/10 (50%)
Looking at when horses last ran shows that most runners come here either between 16 and 30 days or 121 and 365 days but they both show a massive loss if betting those horses blind. If you just bet horses who ran in the last 15 days ago or less, you’d have 6 winners for a £21 level stake profit this century. We’ve also not had a winner of this who won last time out since 2013 but 5 off the last 6 winners did finish second or third on their last start.
Plenty of winners ran at Cheltenham, Aintree or Carlisle last time out and in more recent years two winners have used Wetherby to launch into this. Backing Cheltenham and Aintree last time out runners would have lost you £65 this century but if you just followed Carlisle and Wetherby, you’d have 5 winners and £44.50 profit to show for it.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 16/23 (70%) & 6/9 (67%)
- Winners who had run MORE than twice at Cheltenham – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
Only GA LAW in 2022 hadn’t already run at Cheltenham and most of those who had run here had already won here too. More interestingly, is that more than three quarters of winners had run here 3 or more times before this race.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON between 2m 3f and 2m 5f – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Unsurprisingly, all winners of this race had already won at between 2m3f and 2m5f so that’s looking to be a non-negotiable in finding the winner.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had less than 10 RUNS over fences – 17/24 (71%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had more than 2 WINS over fences – 20/24 (83%) & 7/10 (90%)
The race does seem to lend itself to less exposed horses but they should at least have winning chase experience and preferably more than once.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Graded Race – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
It’s a Grade 3 race but most winners have already tasted Graded success in their career whether that be over hurdles or fences.
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