The Grade 1 Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase is the 2m showpiece of Leopardstown’s Christmas spectacular. Reputations will be put to the test, as GG expert Joe Napier analyses the race.
Willie Mullins ran four of the five participants in 2023, with the mare Dinoblue leading home a 1-2-3 for her trainer, as well as owner JP McManus.
GAELIC WARRIOR
(Willie Mullins/Patrick Mullins)
For a horse who won a Grade 1 novice hurdle over 3m, it is some reinvention from Gaelic Warrior that he is now pegged as a potential Champion Chase horse over 2m. However, his high cruising speed, coupled with quick jumping when on song, ensured a dominant win in the Arkle at Cheltenham last season, despite fears about jumping out to his right.
Such doubts do remain at Leopardstown, as although there was little shame in losing to current Gold Cup favourite Fact To File in a match race in February, he was very firmly put in his place by the time he unseated Paul Townend at the last. His talent could well shine through once again, especially against a field that is comfortably inferior in terms of best form, but trusting this enigma should not come naturally.
FOUND A FIFTY
(Gordon Elliott/Sam Ewing)
It is now three unbeaten, and five wins from eight in all over fences for Found A Fifty. Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old has been vastly improved for the switch to fences, having now claimed two Grade 1s and Grade 2s each, and comes into this having completed his hat-trick at Navan in November.
The form of his most recent win is seriously up for question though, with the race having fallen apart as all three of his closest market challengers flopped. In the end, 200/1 outsider Senecia was only 1¼ lengths behind him, so though he has been reliable at this venue so far, he is vulnerable to the masses in this field too.
DINOBLUE
(Willie Mullins/Mark Walsh)
A comfortable winner of this last year, when extending her winning sequence to four, Dinoblue has suddenly become quite difficult to win with. Three runner-up finishes have befallen her since, including in the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, while she was also a very close third to Banbridge in the Punchestown Champion Chase.
All of those runs are very respectable, and her ten-length second to dual Champion Chase hero Energumene on return came when 10lb worse off at the weights as she would be in a Grade 1. Her 7lb mares’ allowance could well prove an asset once again here and she has a fine each-way chance.
MARINE NATIONALE
(Barry Connell/Sean Flanagan)
The 2023 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle hero looked so promising when scorching up the Cheltenham Hill that day that his subsequent struggles have been a surprise. Marine Nationale was brilliant when winning on his chase debut on this card last season, but two defeats since could easily have bought connections firmly back down to earth.
However, Barry Connell remains very upbeat about his stable star’s future. His fifth of six in the Irish Arkle last season was probably too bad to be true, while his jumping was sketchy behind Quilixios at Naas on return. That will have to improve significantly for him to play a part here, but he could yet be capable.
THE FIELD
Champion Chase one-two Captain Guinness and Gentleman De Mee are talented enough to place here on their day. However, the former has become less reliable in terms of completions since pulling up in this last year, in spite of his Cheltenham triumph, while the latter has always been more of a spring horse, and was a well-held runner-up here in 2023.
Their stablemate Blue Lord is interesting though. He missed virtually the whole of last season after finishing a close fourth in a typically strong John Durkan, but had improved on his first run of the term in both chasing seasons prior, including to win this by 11 lengths in 2022. His fourth at Cork behind Energumene was below par, but he had been off for 378 days, and his form at Leopardstown over fences reads 112.
Solness and Senecia were not far behind Found A Fifty at Navan, but do not receive 7lb and 10lb respectively from Gordon Elliott’s runner here, while Visionarian was a runner-up in a novice Grade 1 over course and distance in 2022, but is up against it on recent form overall.
Savills Chase Trends – Ireland’s Premier Christmas Chase Analysed
For me, this is the highlight of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival considering it’s a race with some of the best staying chasers from either side of the Irish sea on the honours roll. It’s also been a launchpad for many less experienced chasers to catapult themselves into the big league in open company. This year’s…
Thu 19 Dec 2024VERDICT
Gaelic Warrior will win this if on song, but he is a difficult horse to predict, and easily his worst run over fences came on his only start at this venue last season. He may be nominally the outsider of Willie Mullins’ quartet, but BLUE LORD is still only nine, has improved substantially between his first and second starts on each of his two full chasing seasons, and won this by 11 lengths two years ago. He should strip much fitter for his reappearance at Cork, and could be a livewire outsider having won two of his three chases at Leopardstown. Dinoblue is feared most if, as is very possible, Gaelic Warrior underperforms, while Found A Fifty looks solid, but might not quite have what it takes to win an open Grade 1.
- Blue Lord
- Dinoblue
- Found A Fifty
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