Pertemps are the long-standing sponsors of this now premier handicap hurdle and it’s a race that is synonymous with the Festival. Conditions have changed over the years from a Top 8 placing being enough to qualify, down to 6 and now to 4. It’s also a win and you’re in providing your rating is high enough and you want to run, plus novices now need 5 hurdle runs to be able to contest the final.
All that said, there are some patterns that seem to stick out for this race and with only 2 winners of this race having won their qualifier and both running here on their next starts, it certainly looks to be won with more than just a plotty one.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade as despite the changes for qualification, I think we can highlight some consistencies across the years.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 6 or 8-years-old
- Avoid favourites
- Backing all runners with an SP of 9/1 to 25/1 at Betfair SP this century yields a 60% ROI
- Look for horses rated 138-146 and carrying 10-8 to 10-12 (58% ROI this century to SP)
- Last ran 19-42 days ago
- Didn’t win their qualifier unless it was last time out and 5 weeks ago
- No more than one win at 3 miles or further
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 7yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 4/24 (17%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
The oldest winners of this race in the last decade were 8-year-olds and before that it was Buena Vista who took this in 2010 and 2011 as a 9 and then 10-year-old.
8-year-olds alone are profitable to back blind in the last decade and they hold the same strike rate as 6-year-olds. 7-year-olds account for the most runners under any age umbrella but operate at a 2% strike rate this century and only 3% in the last decade
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Priced 17/2 or bigger – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
In a race of this nature, it turns handicap plots into the ultimate plot to land this, but many come here as an afterthought which brings two dynamics in. The reason for mentioning all that is because with the best of intentions this is a very hard race to land. Favourites are loss makers with a low strike rate, and more than half of winners this century were priced 14/1 or bigger.
In the last decade though, half the winners were priced between 17/2 and 12/1, and it shows a 66% ROI. Even adjusting for this century, the priced window of 9/1 to 25/1 would yield a 6% ROI to SP but near 60% if backing on the exchange SP’s.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 138 and 146 – 14/24 (58%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners carrying between 10-8 and 10-12 – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)
Backing all runners rated between 138 and 146 would find most winners of this race and it’s been profitable this century but makes a loss in the last decade.
The weight window of 10-8 to 10-12 has found 6 winners this decade and is losing just £1 this century to £1 level stakes but shows a 33% ROI to SP in the last decade.
Combining these two measures would have found 7 winners this century for a 58% ROI. It’s found 5 of the last 10 winners including 25/1 winner Monmiral last season and 25/1 winner Third Wind in 2022. They helped improve the yield which is 105% in the last decade from 41 qualifiers.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 8/24 (33%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Finished Top 4 time out – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Last ran 19-42 days ago – 18/24 (75%) & 5/10 (70%)
Last time out winners account for the most runners of any last time out position and it’s worth mentioning the only two winners of a qualifier to win this won last time out. Most winners last ran between 19 and 42 days ago which sits a 1% ROI to SP, so it’s worth noticing despite how many will fit that criteria.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had run at Cheltenham – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
- No WIN this season – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had 10 or fewer RUNS over hurdles – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 0 wins or 1 win at 24+ furlongs – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
ALL the last 6 winners had run at Cheltenham before but only 1 of those had won here too. Most winners haven’t won this season, and you wouldn’t expect more than a strike rate of 50% if they have won this season.
Most winners had 10 or fewer runs over hurdles and most winners had no more than 1 win at 3 miles or further in their career.
HEADGEAR
This century, runners in headgear for the first time (whatever type or combination) have won 5 times from 47 qualifiers but with three being priced at 25/1 or bigger, it shows an ROI of 153%.
There have been 9 winners this century with a tongue-tie on and that shows an ROI of 25% to SP and it’s not seemingly relevant whether it’s the first application or not.
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