Punchestown Champion Chase Trends – Does Punchestown Have Similar Hoodoo to Cheltenham?

The hoodoo over the Cheltenham Champion Chase continued this season but is the equivalent race in Punchestown one to be just as cautious about?

I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see what it typically takes to land this event.

KEY TRENDS

• Likely to be aged 8 or 9-years-old
• Favourites are loss-makers over the long term
• Runners with an SP between 9/2 and 12/1 are profitable to back blind
• Has won at Punchestown
• Has been beaten this season
• Has their furthest win at 2m4f to 2m5½f

Focused Trends

AGE

• 6yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
• 7yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
• 8yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
• 9yo – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
• 10yo – 4/24 17%) & 1/10 (10%)
• 11yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
• 12yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)

Most winners are aged either 8 or 9-years-old including the last four, they do account for most of the runners too though and are loss makers to back blind as are most ages this century.

In the last decade, there have been three 11-year-olds and two 12-year-olds taking part and there has been one winner of each age which shows a profit to back blind. Both of those winners though were previous winners of this race although Golden Silver won as an 11-year-old in 2010 having not won this race before.

PRICE

• Favourites – 9/24 (38%) & 3/10 (30%)
• 2^nd Favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)

Favourites are not profitable to back blind and second favourites are loss makers in the last decade but are profitable this century to follow blind. As many 3^rd and 4^th favourites have won this race in the last decade as have the front two in the market and this century, no winner has been worse than 5^th in the betting.

If you were to back every runner priced 4/1 or shorter this century, you’d have found 14 winners but would losing around £6 to level stakes. In the last decade for the same price range, you’d have found 5 winners but be losing closer to £7 to level stakes.

Backing runners blind who had an SP of 9/2 to 12/1 has found 10 winners this century with a profit of £19 to £1 level stakes, and in the last decade, it’s showing a £13.50 profit with 5 winners.

LAST TIME OUT

• Won last time out – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
• Last ran in Cheltenham – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)

Last time out winners are monkey-makers to back blind with an £11 profit in the last decade and £25 this century.

Most winners have come from Cheltenham, Aintree or Fairyhouse but you’d lose money just backing those blind, as so many horses come from those tracks.

FORM

• Winners who had WON at Punchestown – 22/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
• Winners who had 4 or 5 runs this season – 14/24 (58%) & 8/10 (80%)
• Winners who were NOT unbeaten this season – 22/24 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
• Winners who had 3 or MORE wins this season – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)

Most winners had already won at Punchestown but it’s not profitable to back this blind. Most winners had 4 or 5 runs this season and that has been profitable to back blind in the last decade.

Only two winners this century were unbeaten that season and two winners had yet to win that season but the profitable line in has been to follow horses with 3 or more wins this season which shows around £16 profit this century and around £4 in the last decade

DISTANCE FORM

• Had their furthest win at 2m4f to 2m 5½f – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (80%)

Plenty of top 2-milers are known to have stamina on their side and most winners of this race had won at 2m4f to 2m5½f. It’s been profitable to back those runners blind and if you backed horses who had their furthest win over shorter it would have cost you £29 in the last decade alone.

HONOURS ROLL

• 2024 – Banbridge (IRE)
• 2023 – Energumene (FR)
• 2022 – Energumene (FR)
• 2021 – Chacun Pour Soi (FR)
• 2019 – Un De Sceaux (FR)
• 2018 – Un De Sceaux (FR)
• 2017 – Fox Norton (FR)
• 2016 – Gods Own (IRE)
• 2015 – Felix Yonger (IRE)
• 2014 – Sizing Europe (IRE)
• 2013 – Sprinter Sacre (FR)
• 2012 – Sizing Europe (IRE)
• 2011 – Big Zeb (IRE)
• 2010 – Golden Silver (FR)
• 2009 – Master Minded (FR)
• 2008 – Twist Magic (FR)
• 2007 – Mansony (FR)
• 2006 – Newmill (IRE)
• 2005 – Rathgar Beau (IRE)
• 2004 – Moscow Flyer (IRE)
• 2003 – Flagship Uberalles (IRE)
• 2002 – Strong Run (IRE)
• 2001 – Mickos Dream (IRE)
• 2000 – Get Real (IRE)