Set up to be another fascinating clash, I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared to the last ten to see if I can figure out what it takes to land this event.
KEY TRENDS
- Look to 7 and 8-year-olds
- Respect favourites and the winner is likely to be sent off 7/1 or shorter
- Expected to hold an OR of 164 or higher and respect the highest rated runner
- Likely has won at about 2m4f or further
- Should already be a multiple Grade 1 winner
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 3/24 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 8yo – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (10%)
Only 8-year-olds are profitable to back blind this century and in the last decade which is mainly thanks to 20/1 and 12/1 winners Silent Oscar and Wicklow Brave in 2007 and 2017 respectively. Maybe something to note for 2027?
Most winners are aged 7 or 8-years-old despite 6-year-olds having most runners this century.
PRICE
- Favourites – 12/24 (50%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Priced 7/1 or shorter – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
There have been 9 odds-on winners in the last 13 years so from a price perspective it can depend on how much depth is in the race. Favourites do perform well but they are loss makers this century and only show a £2 profit in the last decade despite finding 8 winners.
Most winners are single-figure prices at SP and 22 winners this century were sent off 7/1 or shorter
RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 164 or more (with mares’ allowance) – 14/24 (58%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners holding the highest OR in the field – 11/24 (46%) & 7/10 (70%)
There has been an abundance of good horses who have taken this race and all of the last 16 winners held an OR of 155 or more. More recently the bar has been set at 164 or higher, including the mares’ allowance and the last 5 winners all held the highest rating in the field.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Top 2 last time out – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Last ran at Cheltenham or Aintree – 20/24 (83%) & 10/10 (100%)
Last time out winners are a loss maker in the last decade, but they have been profitable to back blind this century. Most winners had placed Top 2 last time out but that’s also not profitable in the last decade, but it is this century.
Most winners, and all of the last 10, came from Cheltenham or Aintree but this isn’t going to help whittle down the field that much.
FORM
- Winners who had WON at Punchestown – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 3 or more WINS this season – 11/24 (46%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had 3-5 runs this season – 17/24 (71%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who were unbeaten this season – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had won at about 2m4f or further – 17/24 (71%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners had already won at Punchestown which has been profitable to back blind this century but not in the last decade.
Most winners had 3 or more wins that season but most winners had been beaten this season. Most winners of this race had won over about 2m4f before and that’s been a trend on the rise.
GRADED WINS
- 2 or more Grade 1 wins – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
There are plenty of repeat winners in this race so it’s no surprise to see so many winners had already notched up more than one Grade 1 win before now.
That alone is not profitable to back blind, however if you set the criteria to being already a Grade 1 winner and sent off with an SP of 7/2 or shorter it’s found 18 winners this century and 8 of the last 10. That’s profitable to follow this century but shows a £2 loss in the last decade.
Honours Roll
- 2024 – State Man (FR)
- 2023 – State Man (FR)
- 2022 – Honeysuckle (GB)
- 2021 – Honeysuckle (GB)
- 2019 – Buveur Dair (FR)
- 2018 – Supasundae (GB)
- 2017 – Wicklow Brave (GB)
- 2016 – Vroum Vroum Mag (FR)
- 2015 – Faugheen (IRE)
- 2014 – Jezki (IRE)
- 2013 – Hurricane Fly (IRE)
- 2012 – Hurricane Fly (IRE)
- 2011 – Hurricane Fly (IRE)
- 2010 – Hurricane Fly (IRE)
- 2009 – Solwhit (FR)
- 2008 – Punjabi (GB)
- 2007 – Silent Oscar (IRE)
- 2006 – Macs Joy (IRE)
- 2005 – Brave Inca (IRE)
- 2004 – Hardy Eustace (IRE)
- 2003 – Quazar (IRE)
- 2002 – Davenport Milenium (IRE)
- 2001 – Moscow Flyer (IRE)
- 2000 – Grimes (GB)