Both Klassical Dream and Quevega have landed this race 3 and 4 times respectively and it’ll be Teahupoo looking to add another win to his victory 12 months ago.
Is it as simple as that? I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to find out.
KEY TRENDS
- The winner is likely to be aged 7 to 9-years-old
- Likely to have an SP of 6/1 or shorter
- Last ran at Aintree or Cheltenham but didn’t have to win last time out
- If Irish trained, should have already won at Punchestown
- Should have won this season, preference for only one win
- Ideally has won three or more Grade 1’s
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
9-year-olds and 11-year-olds have the best strike-rate across both periods covered and they’re profitable to back blind too.
In the last decade, 7-year-olds have performed well but they are loss makers to follow blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 12/24 (50%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Second and Third favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- SP of 6/1 or shorter – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
Favourites do make a small profit this century with a 20% ROI but they been loss makers in the last decade. Second favourites have won as many renewals from the last 10 as favourites and they show a small profit.
Most winners are sent off with an SP of 6/1 or shorter and that is profitable to back blind across both periods.
OFFICIAL RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
Just under two thirds of winners of this race held an OR of 160+ including mares’ allowances. Just under half on winners held the highest OR rating in the race but it’s not a huge loss or profit maker across both periods.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 11/24 (46%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Last ran at Cheltenham or Aintree – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners are just 2 from 24 in the last decade for a £20 loss. Most winners ran at either Aintree or Cheltenham last time out, but you’d make money if you followed those coming from Aintree and be losing quite a heavy amount if you followed all runners from Cheltenham.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had WON at Punchestown – 15/24 (63%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners had already won at Punchestown but it’s not profitable to back this blind to SP across both periods, but you would make money to Betfair SP. In the last decade it has been profitable to back blind to SP though for a 28% ROI.
Two thirds of winners who did NOT already have a win at Punchestown were British trained winners of the race. So, if you’re Irish, you should have won here.
SEASON FORM
- Winners who had at least one win this season – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
Horses who hadn’t won this season are big loss makers in this race and about as many runners had just one win this season as had none. Of those with just one win, they show a 15% ROI this century and 60% in the last decade. They account for more than half of the winners too.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won 3 or more Grade 1’s – 9/24 (38%) & 7/10 (70%)
A bit of a turning trends, but prolific Grade 1 winners have fared best in the last decade with a 115% ROI for backing all runners blind who had 3 or more Grade 1 wins. This century the figure is a 61% ROI.
If you were to back all Grade 1 winners who were priced 4/1 or shorter, you’d be showing around a 2% ROI across both periods.
Honours Roll
- 2024 – Teahupoo (FR)
- 2023 – Klassical Dream (FR)
- 2022 – Klassical Dream (FR)
- 2021 – Klassical Dream (FR)
- 2019 – Unowhatimeanharry
- 2018 – Faugheen (IRE)
- 2017 – Unowhatimeanharry (GB)
- 2016 – One Track Mind (IRE)
- 2015 – Jezki (IRE)
- 2014 – Jetson (IRE)
- 2013 – Quevega (FR)
- 2012 – Quevega (FR)
- 2011 – Quevega (FR)
- 2010 – Quevega (FR)
- 2009 – Fiveforthree (IRE)
- 2008 – Blazing Bailey (GB)
- 2007 – Refinement (IRE)
- 2006 – Asian Maze (IRE)
- 2005 – Carlys Quest (GB)
- 2004 – Rhinestone Cowboy (IRE)
- 2003 – Holy Orders (IRE)
- 2002 – Limestone Lad (IRE)
- 2001 – Bannow Bay (IRE)
- 2000 – Rubhahunish (IRE)