The Ryanair takes centre stage on Thursday and while it has long been thought of as a race for horses either too slow for a Champion Chase or not quite classy enough for a Gold Cup, this years’ renewal looks set to be a thriller.
Fact To File
(Willie Mullins/Mark Walsh)
Last year’s Brown Advisory winner took the Florida Pearl route having gone straight over fences after a bumper campaign, and despite a shock defeat to American Mike on seasonal debut, Fact To File duly obliged in three subsequent victories, latterly at the festival. He took the step up into open company with aplomb, taking the coveted John Durkan on seasonal debut in good fashion to lower the colours of Spillane’s Tower and Galopin Des Champs late on. The Poliglote gelding was no match for the reigning dual Gold Cup winner back over three miles in two starts since however, and that has put his Gold Cup campaign on hold for at least another season. His record around the intermediate trip reads 12111, and a strongly run Ryanair will undoubtedly play in to his strengths.
Il Est Francais
(Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm/James Reveley)
The trailblazing front runner could have the Ryanair at his mercy should he be able to replicate his devastating front-running display in the 2023 G1 Kauto Star Novice’ Chase, and more so on the balance of his King George effort this season. Il Est Francais was caught agonisingly close to home by Banbridge on Boxing Day, shaping very much as if a drop back in trip wouldn’t go amiss. Whether he handles the undulations and different nature at Cheltenham is the key question, but should he pass that test then he’s likely to prove incredibly tough to beat from the front.
Protektorat
(Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton)
The reigning Ryanair champion Protektorat is back to retain his crown and he comes into the race in excellent form. His devastating win in the Fleur De Lys chase was the fifth highest RPR posted by a chaser at the time, only behind Galopin Des Champs, Jonbon and the first two home from the King George. That was a career best RPR of 172, and a repeat of that effort could easily see him take this once more with a strong pace to aim at no issue, given his abundance of stamina.
Rest of the Field
Jungle Boogie shaped incredibly well after pulling the whole way in the Gold Cup last season, fading only late on having made a minor mistake three out. The eleven year old is far from your archetypal veteran, with the presumably fragile gelding’s record reading a respectable 5/7. His record at around the intermediate (beyond 2m, below 3m) trips reads 1111, and should Il Est Francais come back to the eld late on then he’s sure to be staying on late in the day.
Djelo has improved a chunk this season, beating Protektorat prior to that one reversing the form and then posting a career best RPR of 170 in the Game Spirit. That figure would give him a squeak here, but his best form has arguably come either right handed or on flatter tracks, and there’s the sense that he may be outclassed in this company.
Envoi Allen won the race two years ago and was only just touched off by Protektorat in last season’s renewal, and either of those efforts would give him an each way squeak with Rachael Blackmore doing the steering. He returned this season with his proverbial solid run at Down Royal, though has to bounce back from a poor display prior to unseating his rider in the King George last time out.
Verdict
With FACT TO FILE one of those who would be classy enough to run in the Gold Cup this season, and this drop back in trip might prove the oracle to get him back in a winning vein of form prior to testing his stamina in next year’s Gold Cup. Il Est Francais would prove a tough nut to crack if emulating his front running displays, but I’m always wary of Kempton form around Cheltenham and he can set the race up for the closers.
Ryanair Chase Predicted 1-2-3
