Upgraded to a Grade 1 in 2008, there has been many years of talk whether this race dilutes the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup, or even both. I think having the likes of Imperial Commander, Cue Dard, Vautour, Un De Sceaux, Min, Allaho and Envoi Allen it’s proven that it’s well worth it’s place in the Festival with it as close as you can get to a Championship race in all but name.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see what it takes to land this race and if there’s been any newly found trends as the race has seemingly grown in depth.
KEY TRENDS
- Backing 8yo’s is a huge loss maker and preference is for 7yo’s followed by 9yo’s
- Will be a single-figure price and look to the Top 3 in betting
- Will have an OR of 161 or more but look to those with an OR of 165 or higher
- Will have a peak RPR this season of 165+
- Should have run at Cheltenham before and ideally more than once
- Will already have 2 or more wins at 19-21 furlongs and 4 or more chase wins at any trip
- Ideally has already won a Grade 1 but it’s not essential
Focused Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 6/17 (35%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 8yo – 4/17 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 5/17 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 10yo – 2/17 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
7-year-olds have the highest strike rate both this century and in the last decade and show a profit in both periods. £13 with a 45% ROI this century and £14.50 with a 63% ROI in the last decade.
8-year-olds have a huge £46 loss this century and £33.43 just in the last decade.
The last winning 10yo was back in 2011 when Albertas Run retained his title and Taranis is the only 6yo winner way back in 2007 when it was still a Grade 2 race.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/17 (35%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 2nd Favourites – 6/17 (35%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 3rd Favourites – 2/17 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
Backing favourites, 2nd favourites and even 3rd favourites blind this century has shown a profit for each. In the last decade you’d see a 32p profit if just backing the favourites, a small £2.5 loss for backing 2nd favourites and a £7.5 profit backing 3rd favourites blind. They do account for 80% of the winners in the last decade and 85% this century.
In the last decade, we’ve had winners priced from as low as 1.57 all the way up to 17.0 so there doesn’t really seem to be a sweet spot in recent years, however if you backed all runners priced 8/1 or shorter you’d make a small loss from the last 10 but a small profit this century. Backing those bigger blind would have been a huge loss maker and all told we’ve had just two double-figure priced winners of this race.
RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 161 or more – 14/17 (82%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 165 or more – 12/20 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with an RPR of 165 or more this season – 14/17 (82%) & 10/10 (100%)
All of the last 15 winners held an OR of 161 or higher and it’s been profitable to back all runners hitting this marker blind, both this century and in the last decade. It’s twice as profitable to back horses with an OR of 165 or higher blind at a respectable 20% ROI for the last decade and 8% this century. The recency bias would show that it’s a new turning trend but all winners in the last decade recorded an RPR of 165+ that same season and even this century more than half of winners had a 170+ peak season RPR.
LAST TIME OUT
- Top 2 last time out – 11/17 (65%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran between 26 and 82 days ago – 17/17 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Last time out winners are the biggest loss maker blind, but most winners of this race did finish Top 2 last time out. The window for days since last run is quite a broad one from 26-82 but in the last decade there have been no winners off a shorter break than 33 days so with that window tweaked to account for that, around 30% of previous runners would have been correctly ruled out.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 17/17 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 13/17 (77%) & 7/10 (70%)
All winners of this race had already run at Cheltenham and all but one winner had run here 2 or more times. Most had a previous win here too.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had 2 or more WIN at 19-21 furlongs – 15/17 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 4 or MORE wins over fences – 14/17 (82%) & 8/10 (80%)
All winners had won at 19-21 furlongs before and most had won more than once at between those trips. The vast majority of winners had 4 or more wins over fences.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won MORE than one Grade 1 – 13/17 (77%) & 7/10 (70%)
Considering this is such a big target meeting and race, it’s a little surprising that around a quarter of winners did not have a previous Grade 1. Certainly, desirable but not essential.
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