Top tipster Sam Turner is a regular on Racing TV and a proponent of speed figures and sectional timing. Here are his best bets for the day’s action.
ELEGANT ESCAPE (Newbury, 3.00) has only tackled two handicap chases in his career, resulting in an honourable second to stablemate Sizing Tennessee in last year’s running of today’s feature before he completed victory in the Welsh National a month later.
Races like the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase – where he was narrowly beaten by Ryanair hero Frodon – the Gold Cup and Charlie Hall Chase have subsequently been on the agenda and the figures analysts rate his latest effort behind Ballyoptic at Wetherby as one of his premier career performances.
If that is the case, then Elegant Escape must have strong claims of going one better in this year’s renewal, especially with connections reaching for the services of Harry Cobden who boasts form figures of 1332 aboard the selection.
Elegant Escape also possesses an excellent record when he returns to the track within a month with three of his six career victories achieved in that time frame so we should expect him to improve for his opening salvo at Wetherby.
LAKE VIEW LAD (Newcastle, 3.20) won this event last year, admittedly, off a much lower mark, but he boasts a good record fresh (figures after a six-month break 1231) and his track record (1211) entitles him to make a bold bid to defend his title.
Of course, there is always a danger with a horse that was just 14-1 for last year’s Grand National, that connections may have their heart set on returning to Aintree, especially as the selection’s owner, Trevor Hemming’s, boasts a long held affinity with the great race.
However, Lake View Lad is a hostage to fortune when it comes to the weather and his chance last spring was nullified by the good ground so it makes sense, to this correspondent at least, for connections to take full advantage of today’s opportunity given the gelding has the opportunity to operate on his favoured deep ground.
Bookmakers and punters look to have shunned SILVER FOREVER (Newbury, 12.05) in preference for Floressa given the way the market has priced this intriguing opener up.
The fact Nicky Henderson’s mare is 3lb better off has probably swayed the majority of odds compilers, while the fact her stable enjoyed an excellent first day of the Newbury Carnival is likely to ensure she is sent off a prohibitive price.
However, all that data serves to allow us a decent price about the selection who is reported in rude health at home by connections and appears to be thriving with experience. Silver Forever would arguably prefer a little rain to deepen conditions and make it more of a stamina test, but she isn’t lacking in pace and can confirm placing with her old adversary.
Today's best bets
Silver Forever (Newbury, 12.05) - 2pt win @ 2-1
Elegant Escape (Newbury, 3.00) 1pt ew @ 12-1 (6 places)
Lake View Lad (Newcastle, 3.20) 1pt ew @ 6-1