For me, this is the highlight of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival considering it’s a race with some of the best staying chasers from either side of the Irish sea on the honours roll. It’s also been a launchpad for many less experienced chasers to catapult themselves into the big league in open company. This year’s renewal looks a salivating contest and one for the ages, so I’ve looked at trends from this century and the last decade to see what it usually takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged between 6 and 8 years old
- ALL winners this century have come from the Top 4 in the market
- 50% of winners have come from the 3rd and 4th in the market, both this century and in the last decade. This has been profitable to back blind
- Should have an OR of at least 160
- Will have run in the last 60 days
- Probably did NOT win last time out, but preferably finished Top 3
- Should have 4 or more wins over fences and has won at about 3 miles
- MUST have won a Grade 2 and ideally has already won a Grade 1
- Course form preferable but not essential
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 7yo – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 8/24 (33%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
A definite age bracket to pay attention to being 6yo’s – 8yo’s but only backing 6-year-olds blind would show a profit and it’s a healthy £30.17 this century and £25.67 the last decade. Most runners are aged between 7-9.
PRICE
- Favourites – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Priced single-figures – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Top 4 in the betting – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
The biggest priced winner this century was 11/1 shot Outlander in 2016 and the last two winners were sent of as favourite but what is interesting is that 12 winners came from the top 2 in the betting and the other 12 came from the 3rd and 4th in the betting. Just backing the 3rd and 4th in blind has yielded £40.50 profit from 51 bets for a near 80% ROI. It’s the same 50/50 split in the last decade too, with a £23 profit from 22 bets just backing the 3rd and 4th in the betting blind.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 16/24 (67%) & 9/10 (90%)
With names such as Best Mate, Denman, Bobs Worth, A Plus Tard and Galopin Des Champs on the honours roll you’d might think that 160 is a lowballing the OR criteria. However, with 5 of the last 9 winners being aged just 6 years old, it’s a race that steeped in up-and-coming staying chasers so many will have not reached their potential yet. Still, in more recent renewals the standard set is at least being rated 160 for 9 of the last 10 winners.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at Down Royal or Punchestown – 9/24 (38%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Did NOT win last time out – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran in the last 60 Days – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- NONE of the last 5 winners won last time out
Most winners of this race had NOT won last time out including the last 5. All of the last 23 winners had run inside the last 60 days so that looks essential now and in more recent years we’ve seen Down Royal and Punchestown as the launchpad for this race.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Leopardstown – 15/24 (63%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Leopardstown – 11/15 (73%) & 6/9 (67%)
Tidal Bay in 2012 was the last British trained winner of the race but many were British trained before that which does affect the winners having already run at Leopardstown. In the last decade though, all bar Galvin in 2021 had raced at the track. Two thirds of runners here had won here too so that’s preferable, but course form historically hasn’t been essential.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at about 3M – 23/24 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners who had WON at 3M – 21/23 (91%) & 8/10 (80%)
Beef Or Salmon’s first win in the race in 2002 was his first try at about this trip but all other winners had at least tried the distance and most had won over it too. The other two who hadn’t won at the trip were Outlander with 2 prior runs and A Plus Tard who had just 1 prior run. The former was second twice at about the trip and A Plus Tard was 3rd. If you’ve had more than 2 tries at about the distance you should have already won.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had 10 or more RUNS over fences – 9/24 (38%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Had 4 or more WINS over fences – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 50% or higher chase win strike rate – 16/24 (67%) & 5/10 (50%)
9 of the last 11 winners had fewer than 10 runs over fences and 7 of those 9 had 4 or more wins over fences too.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had already won at least a Grade 2 – 22/24 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
This race hasn’t always been a Grade 1, but still it’s preferably to have already tasted Grade 1 success before now and essential these days to have at least won a Grade 2.
TRAINERS LAST DECADE
- Gordon Elliott – 4 winners from 18 runners – P/L +£11.5
- Willie Mullins – 3 winners from 28 runners – P/L -£14.83
- Noel Meade – 2 winners from 8 runners – P/L +£6.00
- Henry De Bromhead – 1 winner from 12 runners – P/L -£3.5
Only showing the recent trainers’ figures as the British challenge is no more. Gordon’s stats are the same for both the last decade and this century with a 22% strike rate and a profit to level stakes. Willie’s winners have all come in the last decade but looking further back he had 44 runners for a strike rate down at just 7% and a near £31 loss backing blind. In the last decade the strike rate is up to 11% but it’s a still a loss maker to back blind with nearly £15 loss from the 28 runners.
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