The Scottish Grand National is analysed by the trends by Dave Young below.
Willie Mullins took this race 12 months ago with the first 6yo winner since Earth Summit and with his title charge on again this will be another cracking renewal. I’ve looked at every runnings this century and compare to the last 10 to see if we can profile what it takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged 7 to 11-years-old but recently no older than 9
- Probably priced 14/1 or bigger but do respect the first two in the betting
- Rated between 135 and 146 and carrying between 10-0 and 10-7
- Last ran between 16 and 30 days ago
- Respect last time out winners
- Not essential to have run here but if they have, you’d prefer them to have won
- Has 5 or 6 runs this season
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11yo – 3/24 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
Last year’s winner was the first 6-year-old winner since Earth Summit back in 1994, although only 19 horses have tried this century from 590 runners. Typically, you’re looking for an 8 to 11-year-old but 7 of the last 8 winners were aged 9 or younger.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 1st or 2nd second favourite – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Priced 14/1 or bigger – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
Both favourites and second favourites have been profitable to back blind in the last decade but combined they show a 50p loss this century.
Most from the last decade were priced 14/1 or bigger and that true of half of winners this century too.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 135 and 146 – 18/24 (75%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners carrying 10-0 to 10-7 – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
Backing all runners with an OR of between 135 and 146 has been profitable to back blind across both periods measured. £36.50 profit in the last decade and £55.50 this century.
Around half of winners carried between 10 stone and 10 stone 7 pounds which has been profitable in the last decade but not this century.
If you combine the two measures from above, you’d have found 9 winners this century but with a 50% ROI to SP and 5 winners from the last 10 for a 125% ROI, again to SP alone. Both those ROI’s pretty much double if using Betfair SP.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Top 3 last time out – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Last ran 16-30 days ago – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
Last time out winners have been profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade for a £49 and £43 profit respectively.
Horses who finished second last time out are loss makers to back blind but from the 4 winners this century who placed third last time out, you’re showing a £49.5 profit from 65 qualifiers.
Half of the last 10 winners last ran between 16 and 30 days ago which is profitable to back blind showing a £53 profit from 61 qualifiers. It’s showing £62 profit from 125 qualifiers this century despite finding just two further winners.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Ayr – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had WON at Ayr – 8/13 (62%) & 2/5 (40%)
Around half of winners had run at Ayr so it’s around the same amount who hadn’t been here. If you were to back all horses who had 0-1 runs at Ayr you’d be showing a loss to SP but a small profit to Betfair SP.
Of those who had run here, it’s been profitable to Betfair SP across the last decade and this century horses who had won here too, although it’s only profitable blind to SP this century and not in the last decade.
FORM
- Had RUN at 4 miles or further – 14/24 (58%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had WON at 4 miles or further – 8/14 (57%) & 4/6 (67%)
- 5 or 6 runs this season – 17/24 (71%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners had already run at 4 miles or further but it’s not profitable to back that blind, unless they had won at 4 miles of further too, that’s profitable across both periods.
Most winners had 5 or 6 runs this season and each of those are profitable to back blind both in the last decade and this century but no other number of season runs are.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who were NOT wearing headgear – 17/24 (71%) & 4/10 (40%)
There have been 7 headgear wearing winners of this race this century, 5 of those had cheekpieces on while the other 2 wore hoods, both though were Vicente and he makes hood wearers profitable to back blind, but from a sample of just 6 qualifiers.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2024 – Macdermott (FR)
- 2023 – Kittys Light (GB)
- 2022 – Win My Wings (IRE)
- 2021 – Mighty Thunder (GB)
- 2019 – Takingrisks (IRE)
- 2018 – Joe Farrell (IRE)
- 2017 – Vicente (FR)
- 2016 – Vicente (FR)
- 2015 – Wayward Prince (GB)
- 2014 – Al Co (FR)
- 2013 – Godsmejudge (IRE)
- 2012 – Merigo (FR)
- 2011 – Beshabar (IRE)
- 2010 – Merigo (FR)
- 2009 – Hello Bud (IRE)
- 2008 – Iris De Balme (FR)
- 2007 – Hot Weld (GB)
- 2006 – Run For Paddy (GB)
- 2005 – Joes Edge (IRE)
- 2004 – Grey Abbey (IRE)
- 2003 – Ryalux (IRE)
- 2002 – Take Control (IRE)
- 2001 – Gingembre (FR)
- 2000 – Paris Pike (IRE)