Day two of the St Leger Festival at Doncaster features a staying race even more stamina-driven than the Classic itself in the Doncaster Cup, run over 2m2f. That race and more have gone under Dave Young’s microscope, as he analyses all of the key trends.
13:50 BETFRED MALLARD HANDICAP – CLASS 2 – 1M 6.5F
- ALL of the last 10 winners raced in a Handicap last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 23 days or less
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran at 12f or 14f
- 8 of the last 10 winners ran in a Class 2 last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already won a race that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already run at about 14f (3 had won)
- 6 of the last 10 winners last ran at York
“Will have run in a handicap last time out and likely a Class 2 at 12f or 14f. Has 4 or more runs and a win this season and last ran 23 days ago or less”
14:25 BETFRED FLYING SCOTSMAN STAKES – LISTED – 7F
- ALL of the last 10 winners were single-figure priced
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already won a race (All the last 9)
- 9 of the last 10 winners raced at 7 furlongs last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners raced inside the last 4 weeks
- 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out (2 others were second in listed company and 1 other was unplaced in a Group 3)
“Will be single-figure priced and has won a race. Ran at 7 furlongs last time out, inside the last 4 weeks and will have won if running outside of listed or Group company”
15:00 FLYING CHILDERS STAKES – GROUP 2 – 5F
- ALL of the last 10 winners already had at least 2 wins
- ALL of the last 10 winners were NOT unbeaten
- ALL of the last 10 winners had won at 5 furlongs (3 were unbeaten at 5f)
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran in a Group race
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the market (5 second favs)
- 8 of the last 10 winners already had an OR of 101+
- 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT already won a Group 2
- 8 of the last 10 winners race inside the last 4 weeks (7 in the last 3 weeks)
“Will have at least 2 wins but NOT unbeaten. Will have already won at 5f, ran in a Group race last time out and probably did NOT win last time out. Respect the market especially second favourites”
15:35 DONCASTER CUP STAKES – GROUP 2 – 2M 2F
- ALL of the last 10 winners had an OR of 107+ (8 were 110+)
- ALL of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the market
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran in a Group 2 or Group 3
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 20 and 27 days ago
- 7 of the last 10 winners were favourites
“Will have an OR of at least 107, ideally 110+ and will come from the top 3 in the betting. Ran between 20 and 27 days ago in a Group 2 or Group 3 and likely to be favourite”
16:10 EBF PREMIER FILLIES’ HANDICAP – CLASS 2 – 1M 4F (Introduced in 2016)
*There was no race in 2022
- ALL of the last 7 winners had won 1 race at 1m 4f
- 6 of the last 7 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter
- 6 of the last 7 winners had an OR between 85 and 89
- 6 of the last 7 winners had won that season (all the last 6)
- 6 of the last 7 winners ran in a handicap last time out
“Will have 1 win at 1m4f, likely to be priced 4/1 or shorter with an OR between 85-89. Has won this season and ran in a handicap last time out”
16:45 EBF MAIDEN FILLIES’ STAKES – CLASS 2 – 7F (Introduced in 2023)
*Just one running of this race so no trends yet
17:15 CONFINED NURSERY HANDICAP – CLASS 4 – 6F (Introduced in 2023)
*Just one running of this race so no trends yet
17:50 HANDICAP – CLASS 4 – 5F (New for 2024)
*First running so no trends yet
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