The final Classic is the most historic of the five big three-year-old races throughout the season. A small field of seven take their chances this year, and Joe Napier gives his verdict.
It was O’Brien and Moore to the fore in the 2023 St Leger as Continuous was a comfortable winner.
ILLINOIS
(Aidan O’Brien/Wayne Lordan)
With Ryan Moore expected to be at Leopardstown for Irish Champions weekend, this is a big opportunity for Wayne Lordan to ride a third Classic winner. He was aboard Illinois when the pair finished runner-up in the Great Voltigeur Stakes to stablemate Los Angeles, but that was another performance among a string of high class efforts.
In the midst of those was his victory in the Queen’s Vase Stakes at Royal Ascot, after which he finished second in Group 1 company in France. He is consistent and a stout stayer, with hints from his yard that he will join their staying ranks for next season. If anything, this distance is already his optimum, unusual for a three-year-old, and he rates a worthy favourite.
JAN BREUGHEL
(Aidan O’Brien/Sean Levey)
An unbeaten horse from any yard is a rare thing after three or more starts, so when one emerges from Ballydoyle, it is worth more than mere notice. Jan Breughel is the second choice in theory, and while Wayne Lordan is the de facto number one when Ryan Moore is elsewhere, it certainly carries less weight in terms of stable preference.
This son of Galileo is three from three, although has done it the hard way at times. That was not the case when he bolted up by eight lengths on debut, but he has won by a neck in Group 3 company twice when giving the strong impression he needed stepping up in trip, first over 1m2f, then over 1m4f. As a result, we may not have witnessed anything close to his ceiling although he will have to improve as much as is hoped.
GROSVENOR SQUARE
(Aidan O’Brien/Gavin Ryan)
If this looks like a big day for Wayne Lordan, it could be all the more so for Gavin Ryan, who has never ridden a winner above Group 3 level, but is thrust in with a big chance of a Classic winner here on Grosvenor Square. Yet another son of Galileo, he has already raced twice at this distance, giving older stablemate Tower Of London a real fright under Ryan in the Group 2 Curragh Cup in July.
He followed that up with an astonishing 20-length success in the Irish St leger Trial, and while that race probably unfolded unsatisfactorily, it was still a breathtaking margin by which he won. There is a slight concern about whether he quite possesses the ability of his two stablemates, given he was well-beaten in both the Chester Vase and Irish Derby over 1m4f, but he clearly stays very effectively and may be difficult to pass from the front.
YOU GOT TO ME
(Ralph Beckett/Hector Crouch)
Another runner who once made the most of bolting off in front, You Got To Me did so earlier in her career when winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial. Back then, there were mixed feelings about the validity of that result too, though she has proven it no false dawn, subsequently winning the Irish Oaks and going close in the all-age Yorkshire Oaks too, both Group 1s.
As a daughter of Nathaniel, stamina was always likely to be her strong suit and she sees 1m4f out very well. Her supplementation for this has definitely boosted the race as from a punting perspective, though she has never raced against the boys. Nevertheless, there are enough reasons to be positive that she will give this a fighting shot.
SUNWAY
(David Menuisier/Christophe Soumillon)
With his previous riders Oisin Murphy and James Doyle booked for international quests elsewhere, Irish Derby runner-up Sunway will be steered by one of the continent’s best in Christophe Soumillon. He rates a great replacement for this contest, and his mount boasts more than a fair chance.
His second in that Curragh Classic saw him bearing down on the winner late on, defying slight ground doubts on a surface without soft in the description. While some rain would be preferred, it no longer looks imperative to him, and his fourth in the King George saw him perform admirably as the only three-year-old in the field, finishing ahead of no less than Auguste Rodin. It was his Irish Derby second that stands out as rival form to Illinois’ at least though, and his pedigree suggests 1m6f will only improve him.
DEIRA MILE
(Owen Burrows/Jason Watson)
Epsom Derby form has not been well represented among winners of this race over the last five years, with only Hurricane Lane having competed in the race. Deira Mile has a bit of recent history to overcome, although his Derby effort was more than adequate when coming from last of 16 to finish fourth.
He has only won one of his seven career starts to date, so his strike rate is a concern, especially as he was a beaten favourite in a four-runner field for his prep run at Windsor. However, that was still a sound enough effort against older horses and he is not ruled out each-way given that, like so many in this field, his pedigree dictates he will stay.
WILD WAVES
(Andrew Balding/Daniel Tudhope)
His yard have been the masters at sending outsiders out to go close in Classic in recent years, so do not entirely rule out Wild Waves from exceeding expectations. He has improved steadily this year and connections can at least claim that theirs is the only member of this field to have won over course and distance.
His fourth of 16 in the Melrose Handicap was a very decent effort given he came from the back, but doing that off a mark of 92 is vastly different to this Group 1 challenge. Being by Crystal Ocean helps regarding stamina, but he will need more than just that here.
VERDICT
Going against a market dominated entirely by an Aidan O’Brien triumvirate holds obvious risks, but SUNWAY’s form is being underestimated. On his close Irish Derby second to Los Angeles, he rates at least the equal of Illinois, who was beaten by his stablemate under similar conditions but in receipt of 2lb when second in the Great Voltigeur. Although rain might help the selection even more, he now looks versatile enough on any going and should have no issue staying after a decent effort in the King George. Illinois is second choice, though the whole field has to be wary of Grosvenor Square getting loose on the lead. He is also feared.
- Sunway
- Illinois
- Grosvenor Square
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