It’s the final Classic of the season at Doncaster on Saturday 14th September, as the St Leger takes centre stage and looks to be a hugely competitive event. Our stats and trends guru Dave Young is back with all the vital information for what should be a cracking renewal of the Group 1 showpiece at the Town Moor racecourse.
Established in 1776, the St Leger is the oldest of Britain’s five Classics and it’s also the last to be run each year. It’s also the longest distance of the five and it’s the final leg of the English Triple Crown. The route for that triple crown comes in the form of 2,000 Guineas and Derby for the colts or 1,000 Guineas and Oaks for the fillies.
I’ve looked at all running’s this century with a comparison to the last 10 years to see what it takes to land one of the biggest flat races on these shores.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be a single-figure priced runner
- Preferably won last time out and comes from at least a Group 2 race
- Has NOT run in the last three weeks
- The Great Voltigeur stakes has long been a launchpad for this race
- If has run at Doncaster should have won, if has run at 14-15f should have won
- Probably has 4 or more runs this season and at least 1 win
- Should have already won a Group race but not necessarily a Group 1
Focused Trends:
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Single-figures – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)
Favourites do perform above expectations with a near 33% ROI this century and you don’t have to look too much further down the field with 6 more winners coming from the next two in the market. Overall, single-figured priced runners accounted for over 80% of the winners this century and 9 of the last 10. Curiously, three of the 4 double-figure priced winners came between 2009 and 2012 with the other in 2016.
DRAW (2006 running not at Doncaster so only 23 counted)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 11/23 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 11/23 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
You’ll notice neither time band percentages make up to 100% and that’s because Eldar Eldarov was drawn in 5 of 9 so was slap bang in the middle. The balance on high and low draws is even across this century and well balanced in the last 10 so draw would have no influence on my decision.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 110 or more – 20/24 (83%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners with an OR of 115 or more – 11/24 (46%) & 6/10 (60%)
There is a limit to just how high a 3yo could be rated by the time the St Leger comes around, however the vast majority have been rated 110+ with a further 3 winners rated 108+. Good bunch have been rated in excess of 115 too, which has increased in the last 10 running’s.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Placed – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Group 1 – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Group 2 – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Group 3+ – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 12f+ – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 21 days or less – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 42 days or less – 13/24 (54%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Great Voltigeur Stakes – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
Not only is this a Group 1 but it’s Classic so it might be a little surprising that around half of the winners prep in a Group 2 and just 5 winners this century prepped in a Group 1. However, 4 of those 5 Group 1 preps came from the last 10 winners so it may be that the route in is changing. On that, 10 of the winners this century came from the Great Voltigeur Stakes to land this and 3 of the last 10 too, so that’s clearly going to be a launchpad annually. Just 1 winner this century ran in the last three weeks and that came in from Galileo Chrome who is also the only horse to have come from a Listed race rather than a Group race. More than half this century and 4 of the last 10 winners ran inside the last 6 weeks, and the majority of those came from the last 4 weeks, The Great Voltigeur helps increase those numbers again so be mindful of double counting that metric.
COURSE FORM (23 counted as 2006 running not at Doncaster)
- Winners who had RUN at Doncaster – 4/23 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Winners who had WON at Doncaster – 3/4 (75%) & 1/1 (100%)
Less than 20% of winners this century had already seen the Doncaster racetrack however, of those who had run here, three quarters were winners so as you’d expect, if they’ve run at the course, you’d hope that they would have also won at the course.
DISTANCE FORM
- Run at 14f-15f – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Won at 14f-15f – 7/7 (100%) & 5/5 (100%)
Being the longest run classic of the year and attracting those who progress up in distance through the season it’s not surprising that not all winners of this race have run at the trip before. However, every runner who had tried the trip this century including 5 of the last 10 winners, had won at the trip and those 7 this century all came from the last 13 running’s. It’s not essential to have run at about the trip, but if you have, you should have won.
SEASON FORM
- Had 3+ runs this season – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 0 wins this season – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 1 win this season – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 2 wins this season – 9/24 (38%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3 wins this season – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
All winners of this race this century had run 3 or more times that season and just under half had 5 or more runs under their belt. 90% of winners had won a race that season and around half have won more than once. Just three winners were unbeaten that season and two of those came in the last 5 running’s.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had won a Group 3 or better – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
A quarter of winners this century won the St Leger having already taken a Group 1 prior, that’s up to 40% in the last 10. Around 80%, which is consistent across both timeframes, had won a Group race of some nature so that should really be the minimum requirement here, winners though had won a Group race of some sort before taking this so take note of that.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.