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Stayers’ Hurdle Trends – Will Thursday Feature Produce Another Repeat Winner?

The Stayers’ Hurdle is littered with multiple winners, but many have tried and failed too. I personally love this race and while the days of just backing Big Buck’s each year have long gone, is Teahupoo the next horse to get his name on here twice?

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I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to see if we can work out what it takes to land this race.

  • Preference goes to 6 and 7-year-olds
  • Following the first two in the market is a loss maker both this century and in the last decade
  • Must have an OR of 152 or more but preferably 160 or more
  • Will have run at 23-25 furlongs (6-year-olds can be forgiven if not)
  • Will have already won a Grade 1 (6-year-olds can be forgiven if winning a Grade 2)

Focused Trends

AGE

  • 6yo – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • 7yo – 9/24 (37%) & 6/10 (60%)
  • 8yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
  • 9yo – 3/17 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
  • 10yo – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
  • 11yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)

With plenty of horses having won this more than once you’d think the winning age range would split further than it does and both 6-year-olds and 7-year-olds return a profit if backing blind both this century and in the last decade but 8,9 and 10-year-olds produce a hefty loss. 11-year-olds can thank Sire Du Berlais for helping their stats.

8-year-olds sit at the biggest loss and when you consider the 8-year-old winners were Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Bucks coming back to win again it’s not all bad for Teahupoo. Thistlecrack was the other 8-year-old and he’s the joint highest rated winner since Big Bucks along with Paisley Park at 168.

To put the numbers into perspective; 44% of runners this century and 40% in the last decade were 6 or 7-year-olds but they account for 67% and 80% of the winners respectively. Furthermore, they yield a profit of £57.63 in the last decade for an ROI of 105%

PRICE

  • Favourites – 9/24 (37%) & 3/10 (30%)
  • 6/4 or shorter – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)

6 of the last 10 winners were double-figure prices and every single winner before that was sent of single-figures. Potentially a sign that times have changed but in those previous 14 renewals, they were won by only 8 different horses. Only Flooring Porter has successfully retained his crown in the last 12 years.

Backing favourites alone wouldn’t send you skint, but you’d be losing just under £5 this century but over £20 if following both the front two in the market. Horse sent off 6/4 or shorter will show a small profit both this century and in the last decade but those sent of between even money and 6/4 have the best strike rates, with 4 from 6 this century and 3 from 3 in the last decade.

RATINGS

  • Winners with an OR of 152 or more – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Winners with an OR of 160 or more – 17/24 (71%) & 6/10 (60%)

This really is the division that can hold star but also will lack depth in higher rated runners. We can see that most winners held an OR of 152 or higher although they account for around less than 80% of the runners. They’re not profitable to back blind though which isn’t really a surprise. Looking to horses with an OR of 160 or higher does provide most winners, but from less than 30% of the runners. Preference therefore must be given to those with a superior rating, but they’re not bombproof in this division. Fairly obvious stuff.

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LAST TIME OUT

  • Top 2 last time out – 20/24 (83%) & 6/10 (60%)
  • Ran between 31 and 60 days ago – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)

Last time out winners do have the most wins in this race with the highest strike rate too, but they yield a significant loss both this century and in the last decade. Horses who finished second last time out are responsible for many winners, but they produce and even bigger loss. Therefore, the betting vibe from this is to take on horses who finished Top 2 last time out. Less horses fall into this bracket and while the winners are fewer most have come from those who placed 3rd or 4th on their last start for pretty healthy returns of £29 this century and £65 in the last decade. The figures are somewhat skewed by Lisnagar Oscar and Sire Du Berlais being the biggest priced two winners this century who finished 3rd and 4th respectively on their latest starts. Maybe this is something and nothing.

More winners than not last ran between 31 and 60 days ago. We had Penhill win straight from last seasons’ Albert Bartlett, a feat unlikely to be matched and then last years winner Teahupoo came in off a 102-day break. All other winners last ran between 24 and 89 days ago, but each to their own I suppose.

COURSE FORM

  • Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 14/24 (58%) & 5/10 (50%)

Most winners of this race had run at Cheltenham before, but not much more than half had won here before. So course form is essential, but it needn’t be winning course form.

DISTANCE FORM

  • Winners who had RUN at 23-25 furlongs – 20/24 (83%) & 10/10 (100%)
  • Winners who had WON at 23-25 furlongs – 18/20 (90%) & 8/10 (80%)

In the last decade, every runner has run at 23-25f although not all of them had won at those trips. Prior to that, 4 of the 14 winners had NOT run at 23-25f and 3 of those were 6-year-olds.

GRADED FORM

  • Had already won a Grade 1 – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)

The six horses who had NOT already won a Grade 1 has all won a Grade 2 before. Five of those six though were 6-year-olds. So, adding to the distance form, 6-year-olds can be forgiven but elders cannot.

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