As a trainer you want to get a Cheltenham winner in any race, but the big guns will want to settle their nerves by landing a race as soon as possible which is why the Supreme is such a highly anticipated race. It’s even true for punters wanting to start off with a bang and historically the first day of the meeting has been often a day for the good guys.
Still, it’s not just about backing favourites, and I’ve looked at all running’s this century and in the last decade to see if we can see which boxes need to be ticked to land the curtain raiser.
KEY TRENDS
- Must be rated 140+ and preferably 144 or higher
- Should have a season peak RPR of 140 or higher
- Will have finished Top 2 on seasonal debut or Fell
- Last ran between 20 and 66 days ago
- Has already won a Grade 2 or better
- Will NOT be sporting any headgear
- Backing the 3rd favourite blind has been profitable both in the last decade and this century
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 7yo – 2/24 (9%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Most winners of the Supreme are aged 5 or 6 but there is no age that has been profitable to back blind. 5-year-olds alone would have provided a £41.75 loss just in the last decade alone, so if you’re caught between a couple then you’d probably side with a 6-year-old.
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 3rd Favourite – 6/24 (25%) & 5/10 (50%)
The only metric that could be used to make a profit blind from position in the market is to back the 3rd favourite which shows a healthy £21 profit in the last decade and a 160% ROI, this century it’s yielded an £18 profit and 67% ROI.
Backing favourites blind is a loss maker and if you were to take a swing on a bigger priced runner at 14/1 or bigger then you’d be losing a hefty amount with two-thirds of the runners this century falling into that bracket but producing just 4 winners. The only other price ranking that is profitable in both the last 10 years and this century is horses ranked 10th in market, so if you want to take a shot at a price that maybe consider that, but it is very niche.
RATINGS SINCE 2008 – (pre 2008 there are only two measured with an OR)
- Winners with an OR of 140 or more – 16/17 (94%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 150 or more – 8/17 (47%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Season Peak RPR of 140 or more – 21/24 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
9 of the last 11 winners held an OR of 150 or more but since 2010 every winner has been rated 142 or higher. In a conventional year the 150+ line in does seem to ring true, but it does depend on the number of runs prior to Cheltenham and even Constitution Hill came here rated just 148 having just two spins that season.
All of the last 17 winners recorded an RPR of 120+ on seasonal debut and most winners have a season peak RPR of 140 or higher.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Ran between 20 and 66 days ago – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners won last time out but around 50% of the runners in this race tick that box. Bar backing horses who finished 6th last time thanks to Labaik, there is no magic number which has been profitable to back blind.
In terms of when they last ran, the sweet spot in the last decade has been between 33 and 66 days but this century it’s typically been between 20 and 66 days ago, so inside the last 10 weeks really.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
Most winners of this race have NOT already run at Cheltenham. Course form would be helpful but it’s by no means essential.
RACING ORIGIN
- Bumpers – 11/24 (46%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Point To Points – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Flat – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Second Season Novice Hurdler – 3/24 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- First Season Hurdler (no prior racing code, Flat, Bumper or PTP) 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
We have had 3 second season novices’ landing the Supreme with Brave Inca, Vautour and Klassical Dream. 4 of the last 10 winners started out in point to points which wasn’t a significant marker in earlier running’s this century.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 2 or better – 14/24 (58%) & 8/10 (80%)
In recent years, more winners had already won a Grade 2 or better and that’s now looking like an essential box to tick.
WILLIE MULLINS
This race has been associated with Willie Mullins since around 2013 when Champagne Fever was the first of three winners in a row. He’d won the race before that with a 40/1 shot which does skew the century figures into showing a profit.
However, his strike rate this century is 11% and it’s 9% for the last decade. That last decade also shows a loss of £20.27 for just backing all of Willie’s runner’s blind.
If you were to only back his fancied runners though and elect to bet no bigger than 6/1 at SP, his figures read as 5 winners from 18 runners for a 23.5% ROI to SP and 33% ROI to BSP. This can be improved further if you were to only back Willie Mullins blind in years where he has just one runner priced 6/1 or shorter at SP. With a 50% strike rate and 4 winners from 8 runners and an SP ROI of 103% and 128% to BSP.
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