Dave Young had some success with his 10 to follow for last year’s jumps season. Do not miss out on finding those he thinks are due a big season ahead, with an eye on the spring festivals.
Last year’s 10 to follow produced quite a few spring festival winners including three at Cheltenham alone. I’ve started this by including that list just so you’ve got an idea who was on my radar as some may still be worth keeping an eye on. That said, I want to suggest that while these horses to follow lists can be profitable just backing blind, that’s not really the purpose of why I create a 10 to follow. The intention isn’t so much to just bet these throughout the campaign, but more take a view of how I expect them to progress through the season and, of course, I’m going to be wrong about plenty. What is valuable though, is to have a timestamp to start the season with what you think these horses might be able to achieve and they should be under constant review.
2023/24 Ten To Follow
- LUCCIA (Nicky Henderson)
- TEAHUPOO (Gordon Elliott)
- CHIANTI CLASSICO (Kim Bailey)
- HOMETOWN BOY (Stuart Edmunds)
- CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL (Willie Mullins)
- FIREFOX (Gordon Elliott)
- FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU (Gordon Elliott)
- MINELLA COCOONER (Willie Mullins)
- FLORIDA DREAMS (Nicky Richards)
- SLADE STEEL (Henry De Bromhead)
My 2024/25 10 to follow are here, in no particular order:
SONIGINO – Paul Nicholls
Trainer Quote – “He is a dark one to keep an eye on over fences as he showed a good level over hurdles and was placed in some good handicaps. He won a nice handicap at Aintree last year and I think he could just be one of those horses who improves for going chasing. Every now and again you get that high 130 horse who improves 10-15lb for going over fences and he could easily be that horse. We can hope and pray.”
At the start of last season, SONIGINO was a 135-rated hurdler, and he ended the season with an official rating of 140. Between those figures, he reached 143 after a Class 2 hurdle win at Aintree in December. He was 4th before that in the Greatwood hurdle and 3rd on seasonal debut at Chepstow the time before that. What’s interesting is that they persisted with hurdles after Chepstow as that was initially intended as a run to exploit a nice mark before embarking on a season over fences. Ground cost him at Chepstow but they were determined to get that win for him over the smaller obstacles and I think that extra season hurdling will give him a huge advantage over the British novice chasers this season
I’d love to see him run over fences at Newbury, which is a track he’s not run at since a Novice hurdler. He went off the boil slightly when he raced here back then, although he tanked through the race until he just didn’t see out his race to the line. He’s won on ground from good to heavy so he’s versatile there and he does travel strongly in most of his races which is going to be hugely important now tackling the bigger obstacles.
LUCKY PLACE – Nicky Henderson
Trainer Quote: “He is a classy looking five-year-old which has shown loads of promise including when fourth to Langer Dan in the Coral Cup at the Festival, an outstanding performance for a novice. We think he is very promising and progressive youngster who could stay over hurdles but also has the novice chase option.”
Six career runs for LUCKY PLACE has seen him notching up just one win, but in his last three runs (which all came when they was a question about the yard) he gave a stone to Golden Ace (now 143) and went down under a length, he was a half-length second to Gidleigh Park (138) in The Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle on Trials day then finished 4th to Langer Dan (160) in the Coral Cup at The Festival in receipt of just 4lbs. Not only has he run close behind some good horses the bulk of the form stands up for runs after and all those named are at least one year older than him.
I’m not entirely sure on what his best trip might be as he seems to be strong at the line over these middle trips, so you’d think he’ll make a 3 miler at some point. I’m also not entirely sure whether I want to see him over a fence or not, especially just yet as from a pedigree perspective, his sire has produced only a handful of known jumps horses and two near the top of the list are Zenta and Neff who are both 0/ 2 over fences. Still, it’s always worth treating any horse in their own right, and he was one of the last horses off the bridle in that Coral Cup, at a time where Nicky Henderson wasn’t even allowing all his horses to run. I don’t think there was anything up with Lucky Place in March, but you can trust his performance was true as it’s not like the yard were flying and running above expectations.
Off a mark of 140 now I think this horse had loads of options and with age on his side it might just be worth sticking with hurdles with another tilt at the Coral Cup a possibility. That’s a long way away, and there’s many valuable races before then, but I’m kind of thinking long term and that this lad will jump fences at some point so it’s their choice how best they see fit to exploit what looks a potentially lenient mark.
CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL – Willie Mullins
Trainer Quote: “He works very nicely at home and will go chasing. While he only won off a mark of 132 at Punchestown he can improve on that over fences and would be on my list of top novices. I think he’s a lot better than his rating and maybe needs a fence to show that.”
The only horse to retain his place in my horses to follow list is CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL who is going to be chasing this season, and clearly, I have a soft spot for him. I suggested last season that he’ll be interesting when stepping up in trip and the furthest he went was 2m 5 ½f in Navan. I still think this horse wants 3 miles so there’s a case to be made he’s unexposed in that department and following that Navan win he picked up a Listed Handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival which saw his mark rise just 6lbs, so there could be mileage in his mark too. That was a career best RPR but fences are where this lad will shine and he’s long been a horse who Willie thought would make the top Grade.
This 6yo turning 7yo feels like he’s been around forever but he’s instead relatively lightly raced and has shown his best form at the backend of each season with peak RPR’s on his last run each time. Now whether he’s quite up to the standards of a Brown Advisory horse is a strong no at this stage, but I wonder if he might just be able to go about his business in his first couple of starts and then potentially show up in a better race. I’m still convinced that he’s got the engine of a Graded horse and I’m hoping he can surprise a few this season.
It’s not a race that Willie would think of targeting historically, but his mark of 138 would put him in range of the returning novices’ handicap chase over the middle trip so I feel we’ve got a good chance of seeing him return to Prestbury Park in March in one race or another.
WINGMEN – Gordon Elliott
Trainer Quote: “He could be a very good horse. He was very free last season, but he’s a lot more settled at home this season. He has been schooling well over hurdles and while he has an option of a winners-of-two bumper at Down Royal, I think I’ll go straight over hurdles with him. If he relaxes as well on the track as he has been at home this season, he should stay mid-range trips.”
WINGMEN was declared to run last Friday on Day 1 of the Down Royal Champion Chase meeting and over 2m 6 ½f in a race connections have won multiple times, with the likes of American Mike and Hollow Games in recent years. Although he did not run, it does beg the question of where this lad might end up come March as the Gallaghers, the Albert Bartlett and The Martin Pipe could all come into the equation.
We’ll learn a lot by the way the race unfolds when he does make his debut, and I think that’s true for his trainer as well, but I would have hoped the hype about him after his point to point and going into bumpers this year would be coming to fruition now hurdling, and I’d think he should easily make into a Graded hurdler.
If he is still keen, then maybe they can get a mark for the spring festival to exploit, but you’d be concerned going forward that this 6yo turning 7yo might just be the type to never fulfil his potential, but I’d give him the entirety of this season before casting that type of assumption.
SPIRIT D’AUNOU – Gary & Josh Moore
Trainer Quote: “He is a very nice horse and he has been schooling over fences. Whether he is too young to go chasing yet I am not sure, that will be up to the owners, but otherwise he will go for big handicaps over hurdles.”
Ultimately SPIRIT D’AUNOU was disappointing last season on multiple occasions but his 10lb hike following a handicap win back last December was over the top. He was having a season in open company as a 4yo turning 5 which was pushing him into Greatwoods, Imperial Cups and Festival Handicaps and that wasn’t really fair for a horse who was only rated 120 until his last run in his first season.
I don’t mind which way they go with him this season; hurdling affords another year of experience and having stayed on in his first try up in trip at Aintree when 5th of 19 when sent off 66/1 might suggest they can learn even more about him before losing his Novice Chase status next season. Even if they do go chasing, the minimum and middle trip would be fine for him, and his mark is now down to 133, which would remain the case for hurdles, even if he does start to excel over fences.
I hope they have his future in mind as the trainer quote suggested that the owners will have the decision of whether chasing or hurdling is the plan for this season. I’d rather the trainer made the decision, but whichever route they decide upon I think he should be pushing 140 so there’s a chance he’s well handicapped enough to land a pot this season.
ARGENTO BOY – Willie Mullins
No mention of this horse in Willie’s stable tours, which is never a good sign, but I thought ARGENTO BOY was a potentially a nice prospect after his bumper debut, but he didn’t step forward in either run after and was exposed as being less than the horse he first looked.
I was expecting something to come out of Cheltenham to give an excuse to the effort, but the silence about this horse in the stable tour might be the confirmation that not all was well with him after all. Still, he was able to finish between Romeo Coolio and Jasmin De Vaux in the Punchestown bumper so he might be one that stays under the radar and could just pop up and show a bit of what he showed in that debut run.
JERIKO DU REPONET – Nicky Henderson
Trainer Quote: “He battled on well to win the Rossington Main but as we know a lot of our horses were not at their best at the time and this proved the case with this lad. I would think he will almost certainly go novice chasing this season and he should be top class.”
I don’t think it’ll take long to suggest that JERIKO DU REPONET will be a horse to keep a close eye on this season, but more so because he’s had his opposers, and they were proven right at the end of last season.
The reality at this point in time is that we have a horse who is rated 135, who may or may not have given their running in the Spring with the cloud that’s been mentioned numerous times over Seven Barrows. But even off his known form, he’s probably only just about handicapped to be competitive at the start of this season. The quandary for a racing fan and as a bettor, is that he’ll be going novice chasing and you’d think that he probably wouldn’t started out in handicap company. Your mark is protected in defeat in Novice chases, and while they won’t be trying to get him beat, it’s arguably the logical way to progress with a horse who was kept away from competition until March.
Still, there’s mileage in that mark should things not go to plan early in the season and at this stage I’m not sure where my ceiling expectation sits with him. All I do know is, people were keen to oppose him last season although the market didn’t. He wasn’t as impressive as you might have expected in a couple of runs last season, but he still got the job done. He is only 5 now going 6 so he’s had a reasonable first season for the yard and chasing was always going to be his game.
I think he wants a bit of a trip, so I hope they try him over further despite keeping him at the minimum trip last season. I think the only betting opportunity with him is going to be if he put a foot wrong early in the season and doesn’t set the world alight from the get go, but there’s a chance with the way he could be campaigned that he’ll get away with it, and be forced into graded races this spring where I think he’s a way off being that level of a horse at the moment. I’d hope that handicapping at some point, and a season over experience chasing, would be more valuable to his career down the line and he’ll be stepping into open company as a 6yo turning 7yo and should have two or more progressive seasons to come after this.
LECKY WATSON – Willie Mullins
Trainer Quote: “He’s a nice type for middle-distance novice chases. He was runner-up to Slade Steel in the Navan Novice Hurdle and third in the Lawlor’s of Naas Novice Hurdle over two and a half miles.”
Paul Townend last rode LECKY WATSON when second to Slade Steel in the Grade 2 Navan Novice Hurdle and that was just the second time on top of him. While he was priced to not win after, he probably did run with a little bit of improvement and his Punchestown 5th should be upgraded for how hard he pulled in the race. Should be the type to settle better having fences to concentrate on and I think we can expect further improvement if and when Paul renews his partnership with the horse.
He’s raced three times at about 3 miles and each time he’s looked like he’d prefer a step back in trip. That’s franked by the fact he’s twice placed as a hurdle in Graded races at the middle trip and even going back to the Cheltenham bumper, he was 4th there.
He’s ended the season with an OR of 143 but in trying the hood, and 3 miles the last twice I think that was experimental, and back down to middle trips this season and taking on fences, I think he could taste Graded success. His two wins have come by short margins, and he lost the first in the stewards’ room so that is observed. But to get within half a length of Slade Steel while jumping poorly shows how much of an engine this lad has and he might just be able to show it now chasing.
LADY D’ARBANVILLE – Nicky Henderson
Trainer Quote: “She won a bumper last season before making the frame twice over hurdles. She’s had a very good summer and we can look forward to an exciting season over hurdles this time, with mares’ races the obvious aim. She shouldn’t take too long and will appreciate good ground.”
From the family of Katchit, this mare is the lowest-rated horse to feature in my list. However, LADY D’ARBANVILLE missed all of the 2022/23 season and was even started late when second in her bumper in May 2022. Ground does look to be key to her so that’s partly which she’s only had the four runs and is turning 7 but she is still a Maiden over hurdles, she had that comeback season last season where she was able to stay sound and that has continued into this term. There are some races at Newbury that could feature as part of her plan and while she might not be a listed type of horse, in her own company, I’d be staggered if she’s not at least a stone better than her opening mark of 109.
With the dreaded cloud potentially over Seven Barrows you might be able to forgive her last run of the season, although it might just be that she had her own issues. But her previous run behind Florencethemachine looks OK as the winner went on and won a handicap herself at the end of last season. They were clear of the remainder but there’s not much in behind to take note of. Her bumper win though was pretty good in relative terms, and the third was well accounted for but ran creditably behind Anno Power after.
It might be that we need to catch her fresh but also Nico has ridden her just the once and she did win under him, so that could be a telling factor, especially when she’s in a handicap against her own sex.
JUVENTUS DE BRION – Dan Skelton
Given we’ve reached November now, I wanted to include a horse I’ve seen run this season and while JUVENTUS DE BRION fell at the first in the Persian War, we got to see a lot more of him just days ago while beaten favourite behind Quebecois. Now the winner of that race got plenty of plaudits and in the first division the stable unleashed a beast in The New Lion who should take high rank amongst the British Novice hurdlers. But I think that’s helped in some ways keep the light off this lad because he was beaten and the comments don’t speak too favourably for him.
Harry Skelton looked caught in two minds as they turned for home as he clearly wanted to grab the rail to be just behind Quebecois but he didn’t want to get the horse fully stoked up. He sort of niggled him slightly, looked like he might get the rail but Maximum Effort took that position and Harry settled him in behind a now wall of 5 horses before they took 3 out, which comes half a mile from home. Still not panicking, he was placed in the middle of that row of 5 horses and while he didn’t quicken immediately, he jumped two out ahead of Maximum Effort and between the eventually 4th and 5th. He was then asked to go around one horse to switch back to the rail which he did and took four lengths out of the two horses he jumped up sides at the fence prior and now landed in second but already seven or eight lengths behind. Soon after he wasn’t exactly asked for everything as the winner had flown, but he still didn’t lose the gap and while all this unfolded the winner had things his own way up front.
It’s irrelevant that he was beat, and I’m not trying to downplay the winner who was given a great ride, but I am highlighting a horse who has an official rating of 120 at the time of writing and he looks ready to do some damage.
He was a relatively late starter last season, they pitched him into a couple of hurdle races in December and then February, but they wouldn’t have really wanted to lose this 5yo’s novice status but they will happily do so now and as a second season novice. He’s already finished in front of Vincenzo off levels who is now rated 126 himself, Pic Roc was 2nd in two big handicaps last spring and is now 132 rated and even Inthewaterside is 132 now after a third at The Aintree Festival behind Kateira.
How high he climbs in the ranks I don’t know, but as soon as he’s in a handicap I’m going to be keen to get involved and it really isn’t much of a stretch to think he’s got the potential to end the season at least a stone higher than he’s rated now.
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