A mixed bag in the den today, with two strong looking win bets on the flat, a double stakes each way fancy over the jumps, and a couple of big price horses running for us in the Listed feature at Pontefract.
Shenanigans and Promising Run are the proven quality acts here, but there’s nothing attractive in their respective odds of 7/4 and 11/4, so I’m keen to have this pair of double-figure priced fillies’ on side in a two-pronged attack on the market leaders. Isabella has been running very well over further, but this step back to a mile catches the eye, with a career record of 2-1-4 at the trip. A bit to find on RPRs, but she clocked a decent Topspeed figure at Hamilton Park 8 days ago and a big run wouldn’t surprise, considering she’s also a course winner. Marilyn has been improving rapidly in 2018 for trainer Chris Wall. A strong Sixties Icon filly, she has a lovely way of moving through a race and on RPRs, she’s progressed by 15lb, 10lb and 8lb through her last four starts. In theory, she will need to improve another stone or so to beat the aforementioned favourites, but only Shenanigans has posted a better last time out Topspeed rating, the 4yo arrives in top form and you can never discount a confident, in-form horse. Marilyn is certainly that.
This 8yo veteran seemed to find a new lease of life when hacking up in a course and distance claimer here last Monday, where he produced an RPR of 76 and an adjusted Topspeed rating of 61. He also comes out a clear top rated on RTR (RatingTheRaces) stats based figures I use and all told, he looks glaringly well-handicapped off a mark of 68, if repeating that bare form effort back in handicap company. This is by no means a strong Class 5 heat and at 10/3, the Patrick Morris trained runner looks good value under Rossa Ryan, who was unable to claim his 3lb last week but can today.
Premier King has joined a respected stable and has had his wind tidied up, he could be anything but as things stand he looks short enough here based on what little we know of his limited form. Viva Rafa is a danger on the visual impression of one or two recent chase starts and if he can find the best of his handicap hurdle form from 2016, but reality is he is 0/11 over timber now and comes here on the back of a fall. With that in mind, Samson looks a healthy each way bet at 7/1 for Sophie Leech and Adrian Heskin. He ran well for much of a moderately run contest over 3 miles at Huntingdon last time out and he’s also posted a couple of respectable efforts over fences. I think the drop back to 2m4f should help this prominent racer and if Heskin makes use of his ability to stay further, he should be in the mix at the business end. A tricky little race and I’m not the fondest of getting involved with summer jumps, but at the prices I’m happy to give this one a shot in a weak looking novices’ hurdle.
Ran a solid race over course and distance two starts back and returns off 1lb lower, with the services of smart 7lb conditional Seamus Cronin taking the reins this time. Richard Hannon’s Foxwedge 3yo ran well over a mile at Leicester last time out, he arrives fit, in decent form and has the fewest questions to answer of this lot. Should go close to winning here.
Top market prices available at the time of writing, check Racecards for latest
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