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Thyestes Chase Trends – Key Statistics for Big Gowran Park Handicap

Any race with Arkle and Flyingbolt on the honours board is worthy of our attention and this Grade 3 Handicap chase is run over about 3 miles and 1 furlong with 17 fences to be jumped. Two horses have gone onto win the Grand National later in their careers; Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde.

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I’ve looked at all 25 renewals this century with a comparison against the last 10 runnings to see what it takes to land this.

  • Respect 6-year-olds taking their chance in here
  • Horses priced 4/1 and shorter or between 14/1 and 20/1 have been profitable to back blind
  • Look for an Official Rating between 144 and 154
  • Preferably ran in the last 16-30 days
  • Ideally has won 25% or more of their races at between 23 and 25 furlongs
  • Most likely has 1 to 3 career chase wins
  • Will have failed to complete in their career but if not, is a Novice Chaser or has 5 or fewer runs over fences

Focused Trends

AGE

  • 6yo – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • 7yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
  • 8yo – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • 9yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
  • 10yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • 11yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • 12yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)

6-year-olds have a 40% strike this century with two winners from just 5 runners. 11-year-olds have been profitable to back blind this century with 3 wins from 39 runners. They operate at the second highest strike rate but only at 8%.

In the last decade, the same two ages are profitable again and have a 50% strike rate for the 6-year-olds and an 11% strike rate for the 11-year-olds.

PRICE

  • Favourites – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
  • Priced 4/1 or shorter – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • Priced 14/1 to 20/1 – 7/25 (28%) & 3/10 (30%)

Just backing all runners who were priced 4/1 or shorter in the last decade will have found 2 winners from 3 qualifiers and a profit of £6.5 to a £1 stake. Backing all runners priced between 14/1 and 20/1 will have shown an £11 profit. Even just backing favourites blind in the last decade would have made a £2 profit.

This century, you’d have made around £5 from a £17 outlay backing 4/1 runners or shorter. You’d have made £19 from a £106 outlay if backing all runners priced between 14/1 and 20/1 at SP. Backing favourites blind would have resulted in an £8.42 loss this century so it’s been consistent in the two priced ranges mentioned but not just backing favourites blind.

OFFICIAL RATING

  • Winner has an OR between 144 and 154 – 11/25 (44%) & 7/10 (70%)

Most winners fall into the bracket of 137-154 rated horses and ALL of the last decade do, but it has been profitable to follow all runners blind with an OR of 144-154 both this century and the last decade. Half of the winners from the last 10 renewals have been rated 144-149 if you wanted to pinch the window even smaller.

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LAST TIME OUT

  • Ran in the last 16-30 days – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
  • Top 3 last time out – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
  • Failed to complete last time out – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • Ran at Leopardstown – 11/25 (44%) & 2/10 (20%)

Most runners fall into the bracket of last running between 16-30 days so it’s not profitable to back that metric blind but it’s worth noting that ALL winners ran in the last 67 days. Running at Leopardstown last time out used to be a good pointer but not so much recently, and more horses come from there than any other track. Tramore also has provided two winners this last decade.

Interestingly, horses who failed to complete last time out (specifically brought down, fell or pulled up) show a very strong ROI of 74% and a £1 level stake profit of £49. Refused runners or unseated last time out a 0 from 9 combined. In the last decade, there have been 20 horses who came here after pulling up last time out producing 2 winners and a £12 profit to a £1 level stake.

COURSE FORM

  • Winners who had RUN at Gowran Park – 19/25 (76%) & 6/10 (60%)
  • Winners who had WON at Gowran Park – 7/19 (37%) & 3/6 (50%)

More winners than not had already raced at Gowran Park, but winning form isn’t essential. Most had run well though but it’s clear that you can wind this race on your first look at the track.

DISTANCE FORM

  • Winners who had WON at between 23-25 furlongs – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
  • Winners who had WON more than once at between 23-25 furlongs – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
  • Winner who had WON 25% or more of their runs at about 3 miles – 15/25 (60%) & 7/20 (70%)

Most winners had already won at about 3 miles and it’s around half and half who had won more than once at the trip or who hadn’t. We’re not looking for a prolific winner but especially in the last decade, winners of this race have at least a 25% win rate at about 3 miles.

CAREER FORM

  • Had MORE than 8 runs over fences – 12/25 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
  • Had 1-3 WINS over fences – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Had NOT completed a race in their career – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)

More winners than not had 8 or fewer runs over fences but the majority had between 1 and 3 wins over the bigger obstacles. 80% of winners across this century and the last decade had failed to complete in their career, the 5 who hadn’t were either novice chasers or had 5 or fewer runs over fences.

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