The Topham is one of three races run over the Grand National fences at the Aintree Festival, the other two races being the Foxhunters’ Chase and the Grand National itself. The Topham Chase is run over 2m 5f and has become a real target race.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared those to the last 10, to see if we can find out what it typically takes to take this race.
KEY TRENDS
- No real bias with age however younger horses do hold the best strike-rates
- Respect runners priced 13/2 to 8/1 – profitable to back blind this century
- Only one winning favourite this century who was a joint favourite
- Not essential, but preferable to be rated 133-142 and carrying 10-10 to 11-2
- Completed last time out and probably placed Top 2
- Doesn’t need to have run here, but if has you want to favour winners here
- Recent winners had not won over further than 3 miles
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
It’s not often that you get a real range of ages taking a particular race but it’s worth noticing that younger horses, namely 5, 6 and 7-year-olds hold the best strike-rates per number of runners.
Only 6-year-olds would be profitable to back blind in the last 10 but 9-year-olds are profitable to back blind this century.
PRICE
- Favourites – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Second, third and fourth favourites – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Priced 13/2 to 8/1 – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
Favourites have a woeful record in here and it was only 5-year-old Gwanako in 2008 who has won as the market leader this century, and he was a joint favourite.
Second, third and fourth favourites are all profitable to back blind across both periods and especially second and third favourites, they hold strong place strike-rates too.
If you had backed every runner priced between 13/2 and 8/1 you would have found more than a quarter of winners and be showing an £11.50 profit in the last 10 running’s for a 76% ROI and it’s an £18.50 profit this century for a 56% ROI.
RATINGS & WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR of 133 to 142 – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners carrying 10-10 to 11-2 – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
Large range to find here but if you were to back all runners with an OR of 133 to 142 from the last 10 running’s you’d be showing a small £3 profit although a big £58 loss this century.
Runners carrying 10-10 to 11-2 account for 5 of the last 8 winners but even backing all those blind from the last 10 running’s you’d be showing a £7.50 profit, but again a loss this century.
If you pair these two measures then you’d have found 4 winners this century and 3 from the last 10. It does show a positive ROI in both those periods with 11% this century and 64% in the last decade. Might not always find the winner, but it’s a pairing that looks worth considering.
LAST TIME OUT
- Top 2 last time out – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
If you were to have backed every runner who placed first or second last time out you’d be showing a profit across both periods measured. It’s the second placed runners who carry the ‘this century’ figures though and last time out winners who carry the ‘last 10’ numbers.
Only 1 winner this century failed to complete last time out.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had WON at Aintree – 6/13 (46%) & 3/5 (60%)
It’s about 50/50 as to whether the winner of this race had already run at Aintree. Of those, it’s around the same percentage that had won here too but backing these blind (previous winners at the track) shows an 18% ROI this century and 42% ROI in the last decade.
SEASON FORM
- Winners who had 4-6 runs this season – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had 0-1 wins this season – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners had between 4 and 6 runs this season and most winners had either no win this season or just 1. This isn’t a profitable trait to follow but will help find more winners than not.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners whose furthest win was between 2m3f and 3m – 15/24 (63%) & 9/10 (60%)
Earlier running’s this century have seen horses who have won all the way up to 3m5f but in recent years it’s been preferable to have your furthest win between 2m3f and 3m. More winers than not from the last 10 hadn’t raced beyond about 3 miles either.
HEADGEAR
- No Headgear – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners are not sporting any type of headgear, but I would treat it a little more on a horse-by-horse basis as it’s not profitable to just rule them out.
There has been one winner this century who wore first time cheek-pieces (Eastlake at 22/1) from only 9 who have tried. Slightly skewed figures with that SP, but I’d say that if a trainer is happy to chance headgear for the first time (no other headgear tried before this of any type) then I’d look upon it favourably.
Honours Roll
2024 – Arizona Cardinal (GB)
2023 – Bill Baxter (IRE)
2022 – Mac Tottie (GB)
2021 – Livelovelaugh (IRE)
2019 – Cadmium (FR)
2018 – Ultragold (FR)
2017 – Ultragold (FR)
2016 – Eastlake (IRE)
2015 – Rajdhani Express (GB)
2014 – Ma Filleule (FR)
2013 – Triolo Dalene (FR)
2012 – Always Waining (IRE)
2011 – Always Waining (IRE)
2010 – Always Waining (IRE)
2009 – Irish Raptor (IRE)
2008 – Gwanako (FR)
2007 – Dunbrody Millar (IRE)
2006 – Liberthine (FR)
2005 – Cregg House (IRE)
2004 – Cassia Heights (GB)
2003 – Clan Royal (FR)
2002 – Its Time For A Win (IRE)
2001 – Gower-Slave (GB)
2000 – Northern Starlight (GB)