High draws have a terrible record on All-weather Championships Day at Lingfield, with those drawn in stall nine or higher scoring just twice from 109 representatives. One of those winners came from stall 12 in the two-miler when switched to the inside under Silvestre De Sousa and the other broke smartly from stall 11 and was always prominent in the 7f fillies’ and mares’ race. Backing all those drawn in stall nine or above would have returned a loss of £94.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
The early markets for Good Friday don’t seem to have taken this bias into account, especially in the concluding Sun Racing All-weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes in which Keyser Soze (stall 11 of 11) is the 4-1 favourite. I also want to take on second favourite Oh This Is Us (stall eight). His draw isn’t insurmountable but he seems much better in handicaps (eight wins from 17 starts) than in non-handicaps (just two wins from 19 starts). We also have runners drawn nine and ten fairly prominent in the betting and I’m going to side with Andrew Balding’s STRAIGHT RIGHT. He ideally needs a big field and strong pace and really caught the eye when fifth from the worst of the draw in a Kempton Listed contest in November. Since then, he’s found one too good in slowly-run small-field affairs here and at Newcastle but should encounter a good pace to chase today.
Wissahickon will take all the beating in the 1m2f Betway Easter Classsic (4.15) but is priced accordingly and the one to back each-way at 50-1 is EXECUTIVE FORCE (stall five of eight). This progressive five-year-old has form figures this year of 111121133 (6-9), improving to 1111113 (6-7) away from Kempton where his come-from-behind style is at a disadvantage.
John Quinn does well with horses he takes over from other yards and the ex-Luca Cumani-trained ASHINGTON (stall seven of 14) looks worth chancing when he makes his stable debut in the 1m4f Betway Live Casino Handicap at Newcastle (3.55). He improved markedly last year after a gelding operation, recording form figures of 221412 (2-6), including a neck defeat at 16-1 in a big-field handicap at Leicester on his reappearance. Since 2012, backing stable ‘switchers’ acquired by the Quinn yard would have found 15 winners from 76 runners (19.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £20.77 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£40.42 at Betfair SP).
Ashington – Newcastle 3.55 (1pt each-way, 16-1, four places, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, Boylesport)
Executive Force – Lingfield 4.15 (0.5pts each-way, 66-1 William Hill, Ladbrokes, Boylesport)
Straight Right – Lingfield 4.45 (2pts win, 7-1 Paddy Power, Betfair)
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