track-bia14s-diary-v2Richard Hannon-trained two-year-olds who were fancied in the market but beaten on their debuts are often a good bet second-time out, especially early in the season. Those who tasted defeat first-time out, after starting as favourite or second favourite, are 32 from 92 at the second time of asking (34.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £69.39 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£102.47 at Betfair SP). In April or May only the strike-rate improves to 45% (nine from 20).

LEXINGTON QUEST, who goes in the 5f Montaz Restaurant British EBF Novice Stakes at Newmarket (2.25), is today’s qualifier. He was only sixth when the 5-2 second favourite at Windsor ten days ago but the fourth from that race was just touched off at Beverley yesterday after making a quick return to action and he looks worth chancing at a big price. He’s well drawn towards the far side rail and will hopefully elect to make the running.

Get 25/1 @ William Hill

Newmarket’s mile Coates & Seely Brut Reserve Handicap lacks an obvious pacesetter and could get very messy (3.35). Tracker horses include Beringer, who did best of those to come from off the pace when third in the Lincoln, and Sawwaah, who scored against the pace bias here last September. However, both could do with an end-to-end gallop and I’m going to take a chance on PROTECTED GUEST (stall six of eight), who looks well equipped to cope with a tactical affair. George Margarson’s four-year-old tends to race prominently, won first-time out over a straight mile last season, and seems happiest in small fields. His handicap record on good or faster going stands at 136411 (3-6). From left-to-right – 1st – won easily at Yarmouth despite starting at 33-1, 3rd of five - resented patient tactics in a slowly-run race at Yarmouth, 6th of 15 – lost place before staying on again to go down by two lengths when 50-1 at Ascot, 4th – beaten by two lengths when 11-1 on Newmarket’s July course, 1st – won by four lengths at Yarmouth (1m2f) and 1st – 10-1 winner at Yarmouth (1m3.5f). The lack of winning form away from Yarmouth and the drop back to a mile are slight niggles but there’s ample compensation in the early price of 20-1+.

**[Get 25/1 @ Boylesport]

Selections

Lexington Quest – Newmarket 2.25 (0.5pts each-way, 25-1 William Hill, BetVictor)

Protected Guest – Newmarket 3.35 (1pt each-way, 20-1 generally)


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