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Track Bias Diary – Wednesday 31 July

track bias diary

When I first got into horse racing in the late 1980s and early 90s there was no internet, so I had to read newspapers and magazines (ask your parents) to get my ‘fix’. One of those magazines was called ‘Odds-On’ and one of the regular pro-punter columnists, Steve Lewis Hamilton, used to describe first-time blinkers as a ‘universal negative’.

In other words, horses won less often in first-time blinkers than they did without them. That still holds true. This year for example, horses without headgear have won 10.99% of their starts (about one in nine) but horses in any form of headgear won 10.00% of their starts (one in ten). However, within these figures there are certain trainers and sires that do especially well with first-time headgear and one of those is in-form Paul Cole.

Since 2012, his younger horses (two or three-year-olds) scoring with eight of their 39 starts in first-time blinkers (20.5% strike-rate) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £27.40 to a £1 level stake at SP. Celtic Classic was a 14-1 winner for this system at Lingfield last Saturday night and CHARLEMAINE, who wears the same colours, is taken to follow suit in the 5f Provideo Nursery Handicap at Sandown on Wednesday evening (6.05). He was well beaten in the Super Sprint at Newbury last time, and in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot the time before, but will be happier drop back down to Class 5 level for the first time since his Brighton maiden win in April.

Get 7/1 @ bet65


Selection

Charlemaine – Sandown 6.05 (1pt win, 7-1 Bet365, 7-1 generally)


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