This race has been in the calendar since 1939 where it was previously held at Hurst Park in Surrey and regularly contested by French-trained runners, with six of the first seven winners being based in France. It was made part of the Festival in 1968 and there have been four horses who have landed this before taking a Champion Hurdle after. Tiger Roll of course established himself as the recent ‘King of Aintree’ with his series of Grand National wins, so it takes all types to land this, but they will have to be a good one.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to see if we can see which boxes need to be ticked to take this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be priced 6/1 or shorter and respect favourites
- Winning outsiders would typically be priced 20/1 to 33/1
- Not expected to have run at Cheltenham but should have won there if they have
- Does NOT need to be unbeaten this season
- Has 1-3 runs this season
- If ran in the Spring Juvenile, will have placed Top 4
Focused Trends
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Priced 6/1 or shorter – 13/24 (54%) & 7/10 (70%)
Favourites are profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade, but it’s been thanks to the last decade that both timeframes are profitable. It’s a near 70% ROI in the last decade for favourites too.
Runners priced 6/1 or shorter show a small loss in the last decade but they are profitable to back blind this century. There have been a few bigger priced winners, but the shock results tend to be priced 20/1-33/1 and the winners are more often than not 6/1 or shorter.
OFFICIAL RATINGS
- Winners with an OR of 139 or more – 14/24 (58%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who held the Top OR – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners with no OR – 9/24 (38%) & 2/10 (20%)
Given this is a race for juveniles, there are several runners who don’t yet hold an Official Rating. The line for having an OR appears to be 139+ but it’s not often that the winner of this race is the highest rated runner coming into it. That said, it’s still profitable to back the top-rated runner in the race blind this century.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran between 31 and 46 days ago – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Last ran at Leopardstown – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
While last time out winners account for most of the runners in this race, it’s not essential to have won last time out if you want to land this. Most runners will have run between 31 and 48 days ago but that could maybe be squeezed up now to 40 being the bottom line with the Spring Juvenile moved for the DRF. It’s a loss maker to follow that last run marker though.
Leopardstown has been a profitable springboard for winners of this race showing a £16.38 profit this century however in the last decade it’s been a loss maker.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Winners who had RUN and WON at Cheltenham – 3/4 (75%) & 2/2 (100%)
Most winners of this race will be having their first crack around Prestbury Park but of those who had run here, all but one had also won here too.
SEASON FORM
- Were unbeaten this season – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 1-3 RUNS this season – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Won the Spring Juvenile Hurdle – 3/10 (30%) & 2/6 (33%)
Given this is a Grade 1 event you might expect more winners to have been unbeaten, but it’s 50-50 in the last decade and this century more winners had lost a race before this than those who hadn’t. Most winers will have between 1 and 3 runs this season.
The Spring Juvenile has been a key pointer towards the winner of this race, however only a third of winners of this won that race too, so it can wise to look at horses who placed 2-4th in there with as much confidence as the winners. Don’t look any further back than 4th place though.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 2 or better – 11/24 (46%) & 5/10 (50%)
Given the unexposed nature of being a 4yo race, it’s not surprising to see as many winners have not won a Grade 2 or better before now, as those who had.
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