There are 17 fences to be jumped in this middle-distance chase which is again accompanied by the novices version. Despite that race being available to novices’ only, many winners of this race came into the season as a novice chaser.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and compared with the last decade to see if we can profile what it takes to be a winner of this race.
KEY TRENDS
- No real age bias but 6, 9 and 11-year-olds have been profitable blind both this century and in the last decade
- Runners priced 14/1 to 33/1 have taken half of the renewals
- Has an OR of 140 to 145 and carries less than 11 stone
- Respect runners who last ran at Cheltenham or Leopardstown, especially last time out winners
- Likely to have their maximum distance win at 21-22.5 furlongs
- Probably has 3 or fewer wins over fences
- NOT wearing headgear
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 5/24 (21%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 11yo – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
A real split across the ages of winners of this race but both 6-year-olds and 11-year-olds have the best strike rate in the last decade and this century. Both are profitable to back blind but so too are 9-year-olds despite them performing at a lower strike rate.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/24 (17%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Priced 14/1 to 33/1 – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
Favourites have shown a small profit in the last decade but a loss this century if you just backed them blind. Around half of the winners were priced between 14/1 and 33/1 which shows an ROI of 8% this century and 9% in the last decade.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 140 and 145 – 10/24 (42%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners carrying less than 11 stone – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
Backing all runners rated 140 to 145 in the last decade shows about a 40% ROI and a near 33% ROI if doing the same this century.
Most winners carried less than 11 stone but while it’s been profitable to follow that blind this century, it’s a loss maker in the last decade.
Combing the two of these windows would have found 7 winners this century with an ROI of 14% to SP but all of these 7 winners came from the last 11 years, which improves the ROI to 70%. As I say, this has found 7 of the last 11 winners and curiously it’s skipped a year from 2017 so that pattern would suggest it finds the winner in 2025 too!
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Last ran at Cheltenham – 7/24 (29%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Last ran at Leopardstown – 3/24 (13%) & 3/10 (30%)
Last time out winners are profitable to back blind in this race to show a near 50% ROI in the last decade, but they were level stakes before that this century.
8 of the last 10 winners had run last time out in Cheltenham or Leopardstown and each of those followed blind would show a near £24. Interestingly, if you combine last time out winners, who last ran in Cheltenham or Leopardstown there have been only 3 qualifiers, all of which won for a massive £40.50 profit to SP. Two of those were ridden by claimers too.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had run at Cheltenham – 21/24 (88%) & 7/10 (70%)
- No more than one WIN this season – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had 3 or fewer WINS over fences – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had multiple WINS at 19-21F – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had RUN at 23 furlongs or further – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at 23 furlongs or further – 0/17 (0%) & 0/7 (0%)
- Winners with a Maximum Distance win at 21-22.5 furlongs – 14/25 (58%) & 10/10 (100%)
Quite a bit thrown into this section as I found it interesting looking at the distance form for winners. All winners in the last decade had their maximum distance win between 2m5f and 2m6½f but 70% of winners this century had tried 2m7f or further, but none had won.
Most winners had multiple wins at 19-21 furlongs, and this is another race where novices have done well in, which increases the figures for winners who had 3 or fewer wins over fences before now.
Most winners had already run at Cheltenham and while most winners had no more than 1 win that season, 4 of the last 6 winners had 2 or more.
HEADGEAR
- Winners sporting headgear – 2/24 (one from the last 23)
- Winners NOT sporting headgear – 22/24
- Winners equipped with a Tongue-Tie – 4/20
- Winners NOT equipped with a Tongue-Tie – 20/24
Backing all runners in headgear results in an 80% negative ROI with only one winner since 2001. If you were to back all runners blind without headgear you’d be showing a 12% ROI to SP alone.
Most winners did not have a Tongue-Tie equipped and just following all these runners blind it results in a 6% ROI to SP.
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