The middle-distance novices’ hurdle is closer to the Albert Bartlett than the Supreme in trip, but it’s seen many horses who go onto great success back down at 2 miles after. It has an association with the curse of the Challow Hurdle and with The New Lion vying for favouritism, I’ll look at the facts about that race coming into here as part of these trends.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and in the last decade to see if we can see which boxes need to be ticked to take this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged 6-years-old
- Respect any favourites priced 6/4 or shorter (50% ROI from the last 7 runnings)
- Preferably has no more than 3 runs over hurdles and at least 2 wins
- Should have already won at least a Grade 2 before now
- Will hold an OR of 150 or higher
- Should have won last time out
- Probably has NOT already run at Cheltenham but if has, they really should have won
Focused Trends
AGE
- 5yo – 6/24 (25%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 7yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
There is no age you can just back blind to make money in this race, but clearly, 6-year-olds perform the best and they have the highest strike rate per number of runners too.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/24 (38%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 2nd Favourite – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Priced 6/4 or shorter – 7/10 runners (70%) & 5/6 runners (83%)
Favourites go OK in this race, but you’d lose money backing them blind. When favourites don’t always succeed it’s easy to look at the next in the betting, but second favourites don’t really pick up the slack and you’d lose a lot more following those blind.
If you were to only bet runners priced 6/4 or shorter in this race though, you’d have found 7 winners this century and 5 of the last 7 winners to boot. Both are profitable to back blind and in the last decade you’d be showing a 50% ROI. Not always the case we get one that short though, and this might be one of those years, but respect market confidence if it’s there.
RATINGS SINCE 2009 – (pre 2009, 5 winner were missing an OR)
- Winners with an OR of 150 or more – 9/16 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who held the Top OR – 8/16 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
Only three runners rated 155 or higher have been beaten in this race since 2009 and only Gaelic Warrior lost to a horse who didn’t hold their own OR of 155 or higher. Most winners held an OR of 150 or higher but that’s a small loss maker if backing blind.
Winners who held the Top OR have provided 8 winners since 2009 for a 38% ROI but while in the last decade it’s found 4 winners, it’s returned a negative ROI of -35%.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran between 31 and 60 days ago – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Last ran at Naas or Leopardstown – 10/24 (42%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners won last time out but also most runners tick that box too so it can’t be used alone to make a profitable strategy. Similarly, most winners last ran between 31-60 days ago but so did most runners.
Leopardstown and Naas have been a good launchpad to this event with 4 and 3 winners respectively from the last 10 winners.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Winners who had RUN and WON at Cheltenham – 5/6 (83%) & 2/2 (100%)
Most winners of this race will be having their first crack around Prestbury Park but of those who had run here, all but one had also won here too.
SEASON FORM – (Race specific are this century figures vs runners)
- Had more than one WIN over hurdles – 20/24 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had no more than 3 RUNS over hurdles – 17/24 (71%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Won the Slaney (Lawlor’s) Novices Hurdle – 3/9 (33%)
- Won the Challow Hurdle – 0/21 (0%)
- Won the Golden Cygnet (Nathanial Lacy) Novice Hurdle – 1/6 (17%)
Slaney Novice Hurdle winners who have run here have all finished Top 3 apart from Battleoverdoyen who was thought to have suffered during travel. 10 of the 21 Challow Hurdle winners who came here had placed and Bravemansgame was 3rd of 7. Can The New Lion break the curse for the Turners this year?
6 horses have come from the Golden Cygnet Novices’ Hurdle but the last 5 have all been beaten including 6/4 favourite Pont Alexandre. The winner was Nicanor in 2006 who took the scalp of that season’s Challow Hurdle winner, Denman. Maybe that’s a nod towards Final Demand vs The New Lion should they both line up here.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 10/24 (42%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had already won a Grade 2 or better – 15/24 (63%) & 8/10 (80%)
A few races have been upgraded from Grade 3’s to 2’s recently and many from Grade 2’s to Grade 1’s. That’s pushed the recent figures up, but ultimately you want a horse who has at least won a Grade 2 before now.
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