A race for the British, which is a rarity across the Festival week in many cases. It’s the first handicap of the Festival too and it’s seen one of the all-time greatest rides by AP McCoy on Wichita Lineman and in recent years Grand National winner Corach Rambler took this before his Aintree success.
I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see what’s changing, what’s stayed the same, and more importantly; what it takes to find the winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged between 7 and 9 years old
- Most winners come from the Top 5 in the betting (2nd, 3rd and 5th in the market are profitable to back blind)
- Runners weighted between 11-3 & 11-8 with an OR between 139 & 146 have accounted for 4 of the last 11 winners including the last two with a 30% ROI
- No more than 5 wins over fences but ideally between 1 and 3 chase wins
- Likely to be a 1st or 2nd season chaser
- Will have already raced at Cheltenham
- 9 of last 10 winners sported Cheekpieces, Blinkers or a Tongue-Tie
- Irish trained runners are 0 from 45 since 2006
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 10yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
Age alone won’t help you whittle down the field to a money-making strategy but over 80% of the winners are aged between 7 to 9 years old.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/24 (30%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Third favourites – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 5 in the betting – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Priced between 9/2 and 12/1 – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
Third favourites outperformed favourites this century and they show a healthy £34 profit from a £24 stake and £13.50 profit from a £12 stake in the last decade. Also, if you were to cover you bases and back the first 5 in the market blind, you’d have found 19 winners this century and 9 of the last 10. It makes a £34 profit this century but from a £127 outlay and a £29.50 profit the last decade but from a £52 outlay. If you just bet the 3rd to the 5th in the betting, you’d have more than half the winners this century and in the last decade with a ROI of 61% this century and 98% in the last decade. This alone could be an into the race.
If you’d like to use SP price as an in, then if you had backed all runners priced 9/2 to 12/1 it would have cost you £149 this century for a £12 profit but from a £65 outlay in the last decade you’d have made £16.50.
All this confirms, you might have some big-priced winners occasionally, but in the main, you don’t want to be looking too far away from the head of the betting.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 139 and 146 – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners carrying between 11-3 and 11-8 – 6/24 (25%) & 5/10 (50%)
There have been more winners rated between 139 and 146 than outside of it and in recent years half of the winners carried between 11-3 and 11-8.
Combining these two measures would have found you 4 winners this century and all of those came in the last 11 years providing a 36% ROI and the last two winners of the race.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 9/24 (38%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Finished Top 6 time out – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Last ran 16-60 days ago – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners don’t have the best record in this race in recent years, but all winners placed top 6 last time out with the only exception having unseated. Most winners will have last run between 16 and 60 days ago. None of these measures are profitable to just back blind, but they help rule out where some horses cannot win.
CAREER FORM
- Winners who had run at Cheltenham – 23/24 (96%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had 1-3 WINS over fences – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had 10 or fewer RUNS over fences – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 1st or 2nd Season Chaser – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
ALL the last 23 winners had already raced at Cheltenham, only two had won more than once and most hadn’t won here at all. ALL winners had no more than 5 wins over fences, but most fell into the window of 1-3. Most winners had 10 or fewer runs over fences and this falls in line with most winners being in their first or second season chasing.
HEADGEAR
- Cheekpieces – 5/89 this century (1.7% ROI)
- Blinkers – 5/50 this century (4% ROI)
- Visor – 0/14 this century
- Hood – 0/10 this century
- First-time headgear without a tongue-tie – 2/29 this century (52% ROI to SP)
- First-time headgear with a tongue-tie – 0/9 this century
- NOT first-time headgear without a tongue-tie – 5/97 this century (-51% ROI)
- NOT first-time headgear with a tongue-tie – 3/28 this century (82% ROI)
- NO headgear without a tongue-tie – 10/264 this century (-46% ROI)
- NO headgear with a tongue-tie – 4/63 this century (-46% ROI)
Quite a bit to digest here but there will be a lot of talk about headgear being a positive for this race. It certainly can be with 10 of the 24 winners sporting either Cheekpieces or Blinkers for a positive ROI of 2.52% if backing blind.
However, tongue-tie also seems to be a big pointer here, as runners in either Cheekpieces or Blinkers without a tongue-tie yield a -13% ROI however with a tongue-tie they produce a 50% ROI and if you exclude horses having their first run in Cheekpieces or Blinkers, it goes up to 82%.
First-time headgear seems to be a good pointer without a tongue-tie, but it shouldn’t be the first-time if they also sport a tongue-tie.
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