Review of the week
Leicester (Tuesday 25 July)
Dudley Docker‘s sole success (from 22 outings) came at a mile but he didn’t seem to see out that trip when beaten here. Slowly away as usual, he stumbled and swerved on leaving the stalls but still managed to make eye-catching progress before his run petered out at around the furlong pole. Since finishing out the back when 100-1 for his racecourse debut his record at seven furlongs reads 222224 (0-6). From left to right: 2nd – beaten by three-quarters of a lengths, 2nd – beaten by a neck, 2nd – beaten by two lengths, 2nd – beaten by two lengths when subject of a morning gamble, 2nd – beaten by a neck and 4th of 15 – just out of the places after meeting trouble in running at Beverley. He’s down a furlong at Thirsk this Friday where he should reward each-way support.
Folkestone (Thursday 27 July)
A string of placed efforts in a winless 2005 campaign prompted some observers to question Namu‘s resolve and I was hardly complimentary of her attitude when writing the Racing Post Spotlight for her run at Folkestone last week. The words “rarely delivers” came back to haunt me as, not only did she hold on gamely, she beat my selection, Patavium Prince, into second. On revisiting her form it was apparent that her best efforts, and both wins, had come when racing with a rail to her immediate left. This would explain a slightly disappointing effort (third) at Nottingham 48 hours later where she had the second-worst draw. When racing in stall four or lower on a left-handed track, or when racing near a left-hand rail on a straight course her record at six furlongs is 2411 (2-4), with the first defeat by a neck. She’s in at Epsom on Thursday night, where she should be thereabouts granted a low draw.
Wolverhampton (Friday 28 July)
Stanley Goodspeed‘s defeat in the extended mile handicap does his record on turning tracks to: 0464 (0-4), as compared to a straight track record of: 14 (1-2). It’s obviously early days to be stating that he must have a straight course but, given his tendency to meet trouble when racing around a turn, it will certainly help.
United Nations was the unlucky one back in fifth but this run certainly suggests that his previous C&D third at 66-1 was no fluke. The 2004 Wood Ditton winner was rated in the 90s at his peak for David Loder and will surely find a race on this evidence.
Ascot (Sunday 30 July)
Dhekraa was soon beaten in the six-furlong handicap, eventually trailing home eighth of the ten runners. This outing came just 15 days after her fair Chester sixth from a poor draw and she’s probably in need of a break. When rested for five weeks or more since her previous outing her record reads 11246 (2-5), with all three defeats at Listed level, as compared to 57308 (0-5) when returned to the track more quickly.
Horses-to-Follow: Add to your GG-Alert to receive an e-mail when they are declared to run overnight
Ace Of Hearts (11 or fewer runners)
Angel Sprints (July onwards)
Dr Synn (Goodwood, 6/7f)
Dudley Docker (7f)
Fonic Rock (small field)
Indian Maiden (turning track)
Lake Andre (7f, soft/heavy going)
Mecca’s Mate (5f, good or softer going)
Namu (Epsom Thursday, if drawn low)
Press Express (big field, preferably at Newcastle)
Roman Maze (6f, big field)
Queen’s Echo (7f/1m, mud)
Stoneacre Lad (5f, straight track)
Summer Charm (1m2f-1m4f, after a break of six weeks or more)
United Nations (next start)
Removed from the list this week..
Mr Wolf (won, 15-8)
Nawow (5th, 7-1)
Race of the week
Red Corner Events Queensferry Stakes (Chester 4.35 Sunday)
Absolutelyfabulous could only finish fourth to Indian Maiden at Leopardstown last week and the Irish raider will do well to reverse the form.
Bayeux did little wrong at Ascot last week when fifth of 20 to Dabbers Ridge over seven furlongs and won’t be inconvenienced by the return to six. His UK record at this trip reads: 11101 (4-5), including two from two on turning tracks.
Beckermet needs this to cut up to 11 or fewer runners and can be considered if it does, as he has a course record of: 1144 (2-4), with the latest defeat coming over a too far trip of seven furlongs.
Field size
12 or more runners: 9502280003000 (0-13)
11 or fewer runners: 3112114044341368274 (5-19)
Fonthill Road has possibilities if the ground is on the soft side.
FONTHILL ROAD (IRE)
6yo ch g (R A Fahey)
Distance
5f: 112775 (2-6)
6f: 1616122116825220 (5-16)
7f: 23 (0-2)
Conclusion: he’s effective at 5f but best at 6f.
Going
Good to firm or faster: 1665 (1-4)
Good: 211772 (2-6)
Good to soft: 1318222550 (2-10)
Soft: 6 (0-1)
Heavy: 12 (1-2)
Fibresand: 12 (1-2)
Conclusion: he’s best on a slow surface (good or softer turf, or Fibresand).
Summary of ideal conditions
Combine a distance of 5f-6f with racing on a slow surface (good or softer turf, or Fibresand) and his record becomes: 111221168122727250 (6-18). From left to right: 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd – beaten half-a-length in a 20-runner field at Haydock, doing best of those drawn in single figures (first five finishers drawn 16, 8, 19, 12 and 15 of 20), 2nd – beaten by a neck, 1st, 1st, 6th – doing best of the unfavoured far side bunch in the 2004 Ayr Silver Cup (first six finishers drawn 22, 14, 28, 26, 24 and 6 of 26), 8th – met trouble in running, 1st, 2nd, 2nd – beaten a short head by Soldiers Tale, and 7th – poorly drawn at Musselburgh over 5f, 2nd – beaten by a neck in the 27-runner Stewards’ Cup at Glorious Goodwood, 7th – probably unsuited by the drop to 5f on his first run in Pattern company, 2nd – beaten by a short head in the Ayr Gold Cup, 5th – probably in need of the run on his 2006 reappearance (5f), and 10th of 16 – probably outclassed in Group 2 company.
Indian Maiden, who confirmed her wellbeing when successful in Ireland last week, has a fine chance of repeating last year’s win in this event. She has a 50% strike-rate (9-18) on turning tracks, a record that can be improved to 711111113 (7-9) when only considering her runs at six furlongs or shorter and in fields of 11 or fewer runners. She needs this to cut up significantly from the current 24 entries but this race has a history of producing small fields with just eight, five 12, nine and six lining up for the last five renewals. Last year’s victory was achieved on soft going and any rain would increase confidence.
Paradise Isle paid for setting too strong a pace when third at York last time, The horse who took her on for the lead, Donna Blini, won next time out and the form has a solid look to it. She’s one to consider if it stays on the fast side.
PARADISE ISLE
5yo b m (C F Wall)
Distance
5f-5f140y: 1042980 (1-7)
6f: 222117131014113 (7-15)
Conclusion: she’s best at 6f.
Going
Good to firm or faster: 221104013 (3-9)
Good: 217118011 (5-9)
Good to soft: 2 (0-1)
Soft/heavy: 394 (0-3)
Conclusion: all her wins have come on good or faster going.
Fresh
Seasonal debuts: 2091 (1-4).
Conclusion: she can go well when fresh.
Field size
12 or more runners: 222030041 (1-9)
11 or fewer runners: 1142171918113 (7-13)
Conclusion: she’s best in small fields.
Summary of ideal conditions
Combine a distance of 6f with running on good or faster going and her record becomes: 22117110111 (7-11). From left to right: 2nd – beaten by just over a length when a 50-1 shot on her racecourse debut, 2nd (of 18), 1st, 1st, 7th – no chance from stall 12 at Chester (the first five finishers came from stalls 1, 4, 2, 3 and 5 of 11 (one non-runner)), 1st, 1st, 10th of 17 – probably unsuited by trying to make all the running in a huge field (17 ran), 1st, 1st, 1st and 3rd. In small fields of 11 or fewer runners only her 6f fast-ground figures improve to: 11711113 (6-8).
Selection: Indian Maiden
Dangers: Paradise Isle, Bayeux