The Welsh Grand National makes sure the festivities continue well after the Boxing Day feast. 16 runners will travel to post at Chepstow, and Joe Napier previews the race.
Desperate ground preceded a procession in the 2023 renewal, as Nassalam drew clear by 34 lengths for a bombastic success.
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MONBEG GENIUS
(Jonjo & A J O’Neill/Nick Schofield)
A hugely progressive staying chaser in 2023, the boil cooled slightly for Monbeg Genius this calendar year. However, the eight-year-old retains a large amount of his potential, returning for the season with a very creditable second at Haydock during their rain-softened Betfair Chase meeting.
One of the main reasons he will appeal is his course record, as the son of Shantou is unbeaten in three starts at Chepstow, with two of those coming over fences. He has also been third at the Cheltenham Festival, and in the Coral Gold Cup, with his mark now 3lb lower than for that latter effort last year. Part of betting on him for this race comes on faith in that potential, but he is one of the likelier runners to be involved.
GALIA DES LITEAUX
(Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton)
Like Monbeg Genius, Galia Des Liteaux has not got her head in front lately, but continues to shape like a mare with a big race success in the offing. Her runner-up effort in the Classic Chase at Warwick at the start of the year came off this same mark of 142, with the majority of her runs since being perfectly acceptable.
Her defeat at Exeter in February is the only blot in her copybook, but she was eighth in the Grand National when leading over the second last, while she was second over too short a trip at Carlisle on return. She was staying on strongly at the end of the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury too, for which she has been dropped 2lb, and this may have been the plan her season revolves around.
Welsh Grand National Trends – Can Stats Point Us to the Winner of Chepstow Marathon?
23 fences are jumped in the Welsh National, a race which has been run on soft or heavy ground in all the last 18 renewals so it’s mud larks to the fore. The race used to be held on Easter Tuesday but was brought forward to attract better horses although with the risk or bad…
Mon 23 Dec 2024WHERE IT ALL BEGAN
(Gordon Elliott/Sean Bowen)
It has been seven seasons since an Irish-trained winner of this race, but Where It All Began could well prove up to the task for Gordon Elliott. It was the 3m3f Punchestown Grand National Trial which saw him earn a first victory over fences last term, which he secured in some style by 16 lengths.
He was then a distant fourth in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, though the winner has since proved to be a Grade 1 horse, while his modest eighth-placed effort in the Irish National owed to a shoddy round of jumping. That will have to im[rove, but this is probably easier and he has been eased 1lb in the weights, while Sean Bowen is a useful man for Elliott to call up.
JUBILEE EXPRESS
(Sam Thomas/Dylan Johnston)
The least experienced chaser in the field, Jubilee Express has raced just four times over fences, but has proved a stayer of extraordinary stamina already. The seven-year-old has gradually improved from start to start, with chasing figures of 4321, the victory coming over 3m4½f at Haydock back in March.
He can run well fresh, so his subsequent absence is not seen as too much of a concern. What is a worry is that his inexperience could well cost him in the jumping department, as he was not the smoothest conveyance last term and is on a career high mark here. Despite this being an extreme test, he may still lack the class to win this, especially so early in his career.
THE FIELD
Another mare in the line-up, Fontaine Collonges is very talented on her day, but wildly unreliable. She could be up to defying a rating of 148 on a going day, especially with her yard having fired in big race winners all season, but you would be taking a chance.
Conversely, Iwilldoit won this three years ago and is back to the same mark. He has 7lb claimer Callum Pritchard aboard to ease the burden, and this 11-year-old veteran could well outrun his odds, while Iron Bridge is a doughty stayer you can set your watch by and is 6lb lower than when a distant runner-up a year ago. Both look decent each-way chances.
Gordon Elliott also runs Troytown winner Stuzzikini, who has not been hit overly harshly by the handicapper, but would have something to prove over this kind of distance on soft ground. However, he has won over 3m2f already and is open to progression as a six-year-old, with Jordan Gainford coming over for the mount. Evies Vladimir is the other runner for Ireland, but while Gavin Cromwell does well with his runners in Britain, his charge has failed to complete on his last two starts and could find this too hot.
The Newest One can run off 4lb lower than at Cheltenham last month and is worth a second look of those at big prices, while conditions could suit out-and-out sloggers No Hubs No Hoobs and Your Own Story too.
VERDICT
Dan Skelton has targeted GALIA DES LITEAUX at this since the start of the season and looks to have got his mare well-handicapped off the back of two respectable runs to start this term. She should relish this test and gets the vote over former winner Iwilldoit, a veteran only in age, as he has relatively few miles on the clock and has the benefit of Callum Pritchard’s 7lb boon, as claimers have won three of the last five renewals. Stuzzikini is the pick of the Irish raiders, while Iron Bridge and Monbeg Genius given the O’Neills a strong hand. No Hubs No Hoobs is one at fancy odds to consider with the benefit of a comeback run under his belt.
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