The Welsh National ensures a thrilling second act to Boxing Day with Chepstow’s headline act taking place on the 27th December. Matty Sutcliffe has a 10/1 ante-post selection for you to back…
Headline Tip – Monbeg Genius 10/1 1pt WIN
Inaugurated in 1895, the Welsh Grand National has provided a stepping stone to the likes of the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Aintree Grand National with the likes of Burrough Hill Lad, Bindaree, Silver Birch, Synchronised and Native River all completing their respective doubles. Last years’ Welsh Grand National was won in a route by Nassalam, who glided through the treacherous conditions of Chepstow to come home thirty-four lengths to the good, a performance reminiscent of Carvill’s Hill twenty-length success in 1991.
Last Five Renewals
2023:
- Winner – Nassalam (6yo)
- Official rating – 145 (carried 4lbs penalty)
- Cloth number – 5
- Weight 11-3 (3lbs claimer)
- General track position throughout – Prominent
- Season – 4th Grand Sefton, 1st Welsh National Trial
- Season prior – 5th G3 Byrne Chase, 6th G3 November Gold Cup, 10th G3 Ultima, 7th G3 Freebooter.
- Previous course record – 21
- Previous record at 3m+ – 071
2022:
- Winner – The Two Amigos (10yo)
- Official rating – 127
- Cloth number – 17
- Weight – 10-1 (5lbs claimer)
- General track position throughout – Led
- Season – 7th C2 Durham National, 3rd Haydock Veteran’s Chase
- Season prior – Fell in G2 Many Clouds Chase, 2nd C2 Last Fling Handicap Chase, 4th in Devon National, 2nd C3 Taunton Handicap Chase
- Previous course record – 5522
- Previous record at 3m+ 261211F354232238F24273
2021:
- Winner – Iwilldoit (8yo)
- Official rating – 140 (4lbs penalty, 2lbs OH)
- Cloth number – 16
- Weight – 10-0
- General track position throughout – Towards rear, but soon chased leaders.
- Season – 1st Welsh National Trial
- Season prior – 6th Scottish National, 2nd Newbury Hurdle, 7th Haydock Hurdle, 3rd Perth Hurdle
- Previous course record – 1
- Previous record at 3m+ – 1962731
2020:
- Winner – Secret Reprieve (7yo)
- Official rating – 134 (4lbs penalty)
- Cloth number – 17
- Weight – 10-1
- General track position throughout – Midfield
- Season – 1st Welsh National Trial, Fell in C2 Haydock Handicap Chase Season
- Season prior – 5th C3 Ffos Las Novice Chase, 2nd C3 Ffos Las Novice Chase, 2nd C3 Haydock Chase
- Previous course record – 1
- Previous record at 3m+ – 2F1
2019:
- Winner – Potters Corner (9yo)
- Official rating – 145
- Cloth number – 5
- Weight – 10-4 (7lbs claimer)
- General track position throughout – Tracked leaders
- Season – 1st C3 Chepstow Handicap Hurdle, 11th G3 Haydock Handicap Hurdle, PU C2 Aintree Handicap Hurdle.
- Season prior – 9th C3 Exeter Novice Handicap Chase, PU C3 Sandown Handicap Chase, 1st C3 Wincanton Handicap Chase, Fell C3 Wincanton Handicap Chase, Fell in Eider Chase, 1st Midlands National
- Previous course record – 1131
- Previous record at 3m+ – 349PU1FF1PU01
Notable Ten-Year Trends
- 3/10 won the Welsh National Trial last time out, though they came within the last five renewals.
- The official rating of the last ten winners is between 127-155
- Top weights 1/10 – Native River in 2016
- Horses carrying less than 11-0 are 7/10
- 4/10 were favourites – Only two double figures SP’s
- 6yos 3/10 – All went on to contest the Cheltenham Gold Cup later that season
- 7/10 were generally prominent throughout
- 9/10 had only had three races prior that season
- 9/10 had course form
- 4/10 were claimer-ridden
- 3/10 carried a 4lbs penalty
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Leading Market Contenders
Mr Vango (6/1) burst on to the staying scene with a sixty length success at Exeter in the Devon National last season, before running a gallant third in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He put behind a poor effort in the Scottish National with a gritty success in the London National at Sandown last time out, and he looks the archetypal model for a winner of this contest, for all connections will be praying for a testing renewal.
Last year’s winner Nassalam (9/1) is 7lbs higher, but he’d have won carrying the extra weight and then some. He was out of his depth when pulling up in The Gold Cup, and certainly felt the effects of the handicapper’s 16lbs rise when beaten fifty four lengths in the Grand National. He’s pulled up on both occasions this season, though good ground is a likely excuse. The handicapper has relented somewhat, and for all he was impressive last season, you have to wonder whether the Welsh/Aintree National and the Gold Cup has had a lasting impact on him. He requires a leap of faith to chance again now carrying 11-13 and in bad form, but he certainly wouldn’t be a shock winner.
Monbeg Genius (10/1) was flagged up as a potential outsider for the Coral Gold Cup for all that race would’ve come too son after his second at Haydock last month, but it was a pleasing return to action for the son of Shantou who disappointed in his two runs prior. He was a progressive staying chaser before that, taking two novice chases here over 2m7f in 2023 before running a big race in third behind Corach Rambler and Fastorslow in the 2023 Ultima, and he’s thrown in off 144 on that form. He also placed in the Coral Gold Cup when staying on strongly in rear, shaping as if these extra four furlongs would be no issue. If the yard have him fit and healthy this season, then there’s still plenty of time for him to develop in to a top staying chaser and I’d imagine Aintree will be on the agenda after this.
The Coral Gold Cup second Broadway Boy is in there at 14s, but connections have noted this may come too soon. Also in there at 14/1 is Jubilee Express, who is unexposed as a stayer but appears firmly on the up. The son of No Risk At All was a game winner on hurdles debut in March 2022, and wasn’t disgraced when beaten a neck under a penalty at Lingfield next time out. Hew then stepped up to 2m7f at Market Rasen when a rallying second to none other than Broadway Boy, who won next time out now rated 131 over hurdles, and 150 over fences. Jubilee Express was a disappointing 11/8F next time out when good ground was presumably the excuses, and fared no better on chase debut at Ludlow last November.
The team equipped him with cheekpieces next time out and stepped him up to three miles, which saw an improved effort to be beaten thirteen lengths by a progressive chaser at Exeter. Once sent over 3m5f, he showed a dour staying ability to be beaten a length, pulling seventeen lengths of the second, before finally breaking his chase duck over 3m4f at Haydock. He would have to improve on form, but he’s going the right way and if getting in to the race, would be running off a feather-weight for Sam Thomas who knows what it takes to win this contest.
King George VI Chase Ante-Post Tips – L’Homme Presse Worth Chancing On Seasonal Debut
The King George VI Chase is one of the most prestigious Grade One chases in the National Hunt calendar. Widely regarded as the pinnacle of the festive racing, Kempton’s flagship event has seen the likes of Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid, Best Mate and Kauto Star all grace the Surrey turf with their hooves, and while…
Thu 05 Dec 2024Outsiders to Consider
Former winner Iwilldoit remains 7lbs higher than when he won it in 2021, but he’s back on that same mark as he was when winning the Classic chase at Warwick posting a career best RPR of 160, and he’s possibly been in the handicappers grip ever since. He would be carrying 21lbs more this time around if going, but he’s proven himself to carry a big weight his record fresh bodes well. He bolted up twenty one lengths in the Welsh National Trial from a 226 break, and won the Classic Chase off a 383 day break. 20/1 for a former winner of the race who goes well fresh looks fairly priced at this stage if turning up.
Manofthepeople was swiftly pulled up having never travelled around the Old Course at Cheltenham in rear, and we can possibly draw a line through that given he posted a career best on the New Course when winning there in April. Prior to that, he was a staying on third here in the Native River Chase, taking his course record to a respectable 4113. The form of that Chepstow contest has worked out in places with the winner finishing four lengths behind Chianti Classico in the Sodexo Gold Cup, and the second filled that spot again in a competitive 21k contest at Bangor. He seems to predominantly be kept to better ground of late, but his with ground containing soft in the description over obstacles reads a respectable 143111282, which would typically bode well here. He can take a bit of encouraging, but he’d be a lively outsider if turning up here.
Verdict
MONBEG GENIUS was bought by the yard’s sponsors this season and proved at Haydock he was somewhat back to his old self. That was his best run on reappearance since his hurdles debut, and he caught the eye staying on well off top-weight by the Venetia Williams trained Fontaine Collonges, who typically revelled in the mud. Four of the last five winners of this race had previously contested a race at Haydock that season, including Secret Reprieve who fell in the race Monbeg Genius was second in. His course form reads 111, he’s seriously well handicapped on his Ultima form, he shapes like he’ll get the trip, and the yard won this with Synchronised in 2011.
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