23 fences are jumped in the Welsh National, a race which has been run on soft or heavy ground in all the last 18 renewals so it’s mud larks to the fore. The race used to be held on Easter Tuesday but was brought forward to attract better horses although with the risk or bad weather. Since 1979 it’s been held in late December with the 27th now the scheduled fixture date.
I’ve had a look at the runnings this century and the last decade to try and figure out what it takes to win this festive centrepiece.
KEY TRENDS
- Must have 1-5 chase wins but preferably 2-4
- MUST have run this season and preferably more than once
- Has probably failed to complete in their career but NOT last time out
- Should have finished Top 4 last time out
- Likely to be rated 131-145 or carrying 10-0 to 10-10
- Ideally has already run over 28 furlongs or further but not essential
- ALL of the last 11 winners had already raced at Chepstow
- Bonus points if last run came at Chepstow
FOCUSED TRENDS
CAREER FORM
- HAS FAILED TO COMPLETE IN CAREER – 20/24 (83%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 2-4 CHASE WINS – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%) Others has either 1 or 5
- LESS THAN 10 CHASE RUNS – 13/24 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
All winners this century had between 1 and 5 chase wins and most fell into the bracket of 2-4 wins. Most winners had failed to complete in their career over hurdles or fences but 2 of the last 3 hadn’t. It’s an even split for horses having run more or less than 10 times over fences so looking at the number of wins might be more beneficial.
SEASON FORM
- RAN MORE THAN ONCE THIS SEASON – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
- WON THIS SEASON – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
Every winner this century had already run this season, and most had run more than once. Around half of winners had won last time out, although some of those wins will have come over hurdles in a prep.
DISTANCE FORM
- HAD RUN OVER 28 FURLONGS OR FURTHER – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
- HAD WON OVER 28 FURLONGS OR FURTHER – 8/19 (42%) & 4/7 (57%)
Most winners had already raced over 28 furlongs or further and around half of those had won over that sort of trip too although no winner had won more than 2 races at 28 furlongs or further before landing this.
COURSE FORM
- HAS RUN AT CHEPSTOW – 19/24 (79%) & 10/10 (100%)
- HAS WON AT CHEPSTOW – 14/19 (74%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners this century and all of the last 11 had already raced at Chepstow and most of those had won here too. Course form is a massive advantage but it’s not entirely essential as we’ve had 5 winners coming here without a look, but none from the last 11, as mentioned.
LAST TIME OUT
- WON – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- TOP 2 – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- TOP 3 – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
- TOP 4 – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- DID NOT FINISH – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- RAN BETWEEN 18 AND 54 DAYS AGO – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- RAN AT CHEPSTOW – 9/24 (38%) & 4/10 (40%) +£43.50 to back blind this century
No winner of the Welsh National this century had failed to complete last time out, and most winners had placed Top 4 last time out, with almost half having won last time out too. All winners ran between 18 and 54 days ago so that will potentially rule a few out with longer layoffs or recent runs. It’s been profitable to back runners who last raced at Chepstow blind this century however it’s been a small loss maker in the last decade.
OFFICAL RATING
- RATED BETWEEN 131 AND 145 – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- RATED EXACTLY 131 OR 145 – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
Rating bands can be a bit of a red herring as typically the number of runners within a band will match the number of winners. Between 131 and 145 this century we’ve had 67% of the winners from 58% of the runners while the last decade has 70% of the winners from 63% of the runners. Each outperforms number of runners, but each shows a loss if just backing blind.
Curiously, if you were to bet just the bottom and top figure in the band, 131 & 145, you’d have 6% and 7% of the runners but with 25% and 30% of the winners in the last century and the last decade. Both yield a healthy ROI backing blind of 152% this century and 88% from the last 10. Only CHAMBARD, if running, ticks the exact rating box, but is a 12yo and the only winner of that age was in 1950.
WEIGHT CARRIED
- 10-0 to 10-10 – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners have carried between 10 stone and 10 stone 10lbs however it’s a loss maker as most runners fall into that bracket.
AGE
- 6YO – 5/24 (21%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7YO – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8YO – 7/24 (29%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9YO – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10YO – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 11YO – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 12YO – 0/24 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 13YO – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
6-year-olds and 13-year-olds have been profitable to back blind this century and in the last decade. They also hold the highest place % with 40% each. The bulk of runners come from the age bracket of 7-11 and their respective strike rates decline with age from 7% down to just 2%.
PRICE
- 14/1 to 20/1 – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- TOP 3 – 12/24 (50%) & 8/10 (80%)
- FAVOURITE – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
Half the winners come from the top three in the market this century which also means half don’t. If you were to back all runners priced 14/1 to 20/1 blind you’d have made a £9 profit but that price band holds the most runners too but still reflects an ROI of 7.9%.
In the last decade, backing runners between 5/2 and 4/1 would have returned 3 winners from 4 runners for a £7.25 profit backing blind. Betting the Top 3 blind would also have produced a £13.25 profit and accounts for 8 of the last 10 winners.
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