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William Hill Handicap Hurdle Trends – Race Formerly Known as Betfair Hurdle by the Stats

William Hill have taken over the sponsorship of this race which is Britain’s richest handicap hurdle. There have been some great names on the honours roll and it’s a big target for many yards.

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I’ve looked at all runnings this century and the last decade to see what’s changing, what’s stayed the same, and more importantly; what it takes to find the winner.

  • Will be aged 7 or younger
  • Respect favourites, they’re profitable to back blind this century and the last decade
  • Preferably rated 131-146 and carrying 11 stone plus (24% ROI with 7 winners from the last 8)
  • Likely has no more than 9 runs over hurdles
  • Likely has no more than 3 wins over hurdles but has at least 2
  • Preference for horses who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out at Ascot or Sandown

AGE

  • 5yo – 9/23 (39%) & 4/10 (40%)
  • 6yo – 9/23 (39%) & 4/10 (40%)
  • 7yo – 4/23 (18%) & 2/10 (20%)
  • 8yo – 0/23 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
  • 9yo – 1/23 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)

5-year-olds have been profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade with a 33/1 and a 50/1 found. The conditions for Novices running in these types of handicaps has changed as of last season, so there’s now the probability that not as many 5yo’s will qualify for this, but maybe that makes the ones who do, more attractive. We’ll have to wait to find out, but there are usually about the same number of 5 and 6-year-old runners but it’s almost a 2:1 ratio of 6yo’s vs 5yo’s at the confirmation stage.

What we have seen though, is most winners are aged 7 or younger and the only winner older was Geos who came back to win another renewal in 2004 having won the race in 2000 as a 5-year-old.

PRICE

  • Favourites – 7/23 (50%) & 3/10 (30%)
  • Single-figure priced – 13/23 (57%) & 6/10 (60%)

Favourites are profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade with a £10.25 & £4.5 profit respectively. There have been some big-priced winners of this race so don’t be afraid of bigger prices.

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RATINGS AND WEIGHT

  • Winners with an OR between 131 and 146 – 18/23 (78%) & 10/10 (100%)
  • Winners carrying 11 stone or more – 12/23 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)

It’s hard to whittle down the runners by weight or OR as most fall into the same bands. It is however a much smaller loss blind backing horses between 131 and 146 rated carrying 11-stone or more. An ROI of -13% compared to -43% for those rated 131-146 but carrying less than 11 stone and if you look for runners outside the rating band and carrying under 11 stone, you wouldn’t have found the winner since 2008.

Looking just at the last 8 renewals though, you’d have found 7 of the 8 winners using both these measures and it’s produced an ROI of 24%.

LAST TIME OUT

  • Won last time out – 8/23 (35%) & 1/10 (10%)
  • Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out – 11/23 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
  • Last ran at Sandown or Ascot – 7/23 (30%) & 7/10 (70%)

We’ve had two winners who run just 14 days before this and Zarkandar hadn’t run for 316 days, so the range is covered but most winners last ran between 21 and 79 days ago. That’s not likely to whittle down the field too much, but looking at recent renewals, horses who last ran at Sandown or Ascot have been profitable to back blind, so although Sandown has had abonnements, it’s probably still worth looking favourably at runners who last raced at either track. Last time out winners are quite a low percentage, and especially in the last decade, they underperformed greatly vs number of runners.

Horses who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out are profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade individually. Maybe unlucky losers get their reward in here. If we combine this with the last run track being Ascot or Sandown, in the last decade you’d show a 120% ROI to SP with 4 of the last 10 winners.

CAREER FORM

  • Winners who had run at Newbury – 9/23 (39%) & 5/10 (50%)
  • Winners who had 9 or fewer RUNS over hurdles – 17/23 (74%) & 8/10 (80%)
  • Winners who had 2 or more WINS over hurdles – 19/23 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)

All winners this century had no more than 5 hurdle wins and all bar 3 winners had no more than 3 hurdle wins but most winners had more than 2 hurdle wins. It’s not essential to have run at this track before and even those who had hadn’t always won here. However, the last three winners who had run here, had won here too, and no horse had more than 2 spins at the track.

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