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    Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Trends

    Day three of the Cheltenham Festival takes place on Thursday 12th March, 2026 and there’s a whole host of quality races across the afternoon. Some of the eye-catching contests include the Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle at 3.20pm and Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at 4.00pm, which will attract some of the stars of the long-distance hurdle scene and middle-distance chasing scene. We delve down memory land and take a look at the trends and stats for the last ten years, as we look to point you in the right direction of a few winners.

    Check out our Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Trends here.

    • All the 10 winners were aged either 5 or 6-years-old
    • 8 of the 10 winners had 2-4 runs over hurdles this season
    • 8 of the 10 winners last ran between 28 and 47 days ago
    • 7 of the 10 winners had an OR of 135 or higher (2 held no OR the other was 124)
    • 7 of the 10 winners were Irish Trained
    • 6 of the 10 winners had at least four runs over hurdles
    • 6 of the 10 winners were unbeaten that season
    • Last 7 winners were priced 9/2 or bigger
    • Last 6 winners were 6-year-olds
    • 7-year-olds are 0 from 21
    • This was a new race for 2025 so no trends viable for this as the previous Novices’ Handicap had a rating ceiling.
    • 15 of the last 17 had won over at least 2m 4f
    • 15 of the last 17 winners had won 50% or more of their races
    • 9 of the last 11 had 2 or more runs that season
    • 9 of the last 11 winners had won that season
    • 9 of the last 11 winners last ran between 31 and 50 days ago
    • 14 of the 18 winners were aged 5 to 7-years-old
    • 13 of the 18 winners won last time out
    • 7 of the last 11 winners were NOT the highest rated runner
    • Preferably has won 50% or more of their hurdle races
    • Has won a Grade 2 or better before now
    • Previous Mares Novice Hurdle winners are yet to win this

    • 21 of the last 22 winners had an OR of 152 or higher
    • 17 of the 18 winners aged 7 or older had already won a Grade 1
    • 23 of the last 25 had at least placed in a Grade 1 3m hurdle
    • 20 of the last 25 winners were aged 6-8
    • 19 of the last 25 winners were in the top 4 of the market
    • Since 1992 only 1 winner with headgear from 93 who have tried
    • Since 2004 just 2 winners have won after being beaten in the race
    • The 7 winners aged 6-years-old this century all had an OR of 157 or higher
    • ALL the last 14 winners were aged 7-9
    • ALL the last 14 winners had a season peak RPR of 165+
    • 17 of the last 18 winners were rated over 160
    • 17 of the last 18 winners were single-figure prices
    • 10 of the last 11 winners had already won that season
    • 9 of the last 10 winners last ran 40 to 80 days ago
    • 15 of the last 18 winners had at least placed at The Festival before
    • 14 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase
    • Only 3 of the 21 winners came from outside the Top 3 in the betting
    • 22 of the last 23 winners had no more than one win over 3 miles plus
    • 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or younger
    • 9 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie (150% ROI to SP)
    • 11 of the last 14 winners ran in the last 39 days
    • 17 of the last 22 winners were sent off a double-figure price
    • 11 of the last 15 winners were rated between 138-146
    • Just 1 of the last 8 winners had won that season
    • Just 2 winners this century won their qualifier (none in last 11)
    • 18 of the last 19 winners had 2 or fewer wins over fences
    • 21 of the last 23 winners did NOT win last time out
    • 18 of the last 21 winners were aged 7-9
    • 14 of the last 17 winners carried at least 11 stone 4
    • 16 of the last 21 winners were ridden by non-claiming amateurs
    • 12 of the last 17 winners had run in February
    • JP McManus is 3 from 13 with his first string (16% ROI) and 0 from 12 with the rest