Day 4 of Glorious Goodwood takes place on Friday 31st July. It’s another sparkling day’s action on the south coast, with the King George Stakes one of the many highlights. The Golden Mile Handicap is the best betting race of the day, with plenty of stats and trends to follow with that race.
Dave Young is here with all the vital trends and stats to know ahead of picking your selections for each race.
Coral Goodwood Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 4½f
Day 4 kicks off with a Marathon handicap which has had plenty of big priced winners although 2 of the last 3 winners were either the first or second favourite. Draw is irrelevant in this race, which isn’t true of many races we cover on the Friday but this is a good race to kick things off and Emma Lavelle has won 2 of the last 4 renewals so should be respected if sending one here.
- 9 of the last 10 winners had NOT won that season (2 did not run)
- 9 of the last 10 winners were rated no higher than 94
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 11 or more career runs (the last 6)
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners carried less than 9 stone
- 6 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 85 or higher
“Has run but probably not won this season or last time out. Has 11 or more career runs, probably carries less than 9 stone and rated between 85 and 94” 3 career wins or none. Respect those drawn in stall 5 or lower and those who placed Top 3 last time out”
Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) – 1m
The first Group race of Day 4 and despite smaller field sizes, there are signs of a clear bias over this mile trip to lower drawn runners. The Sir Henry Cecil Stakes is a good pointer to this contest with 5 of the last 9 winners coming from that race but there’s plenty more boxes you’d hope to tick too.
- ALL of the last 10 winners had run at 1 mile (6 had won)
- ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT run in the last three weeks but had run this season
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 1 to 3 career wins
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had NOT won a Group race
- 9 of the last 10 winners had NOT run at Goodwood
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting (4 favourites)
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from Newmarket or Ascot
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stalls 1-4 (last 5 drawn stalls 1 or 2)
“Will have run at a mile but not required to have won. Has 2 or more runs this season but not in the last 3 weeks and has 1-3 career wins. Respect lower drawn horses. Has 2 or more runs, respect favourites and likely to come from Ascot or Newmarket last time out”
Golden Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
A mile handicap with an average field of more than 20 runners might feel overwhelming, however, 8 of the last 10 winners came from stall 5 or lower and the other two were drawn in the 4 widest stalls. I think we could rule half this field out which might surprise you when 3 of the last 4 winners fell into this bucket and were priced 20/1, 25/1 and 12/1! Preference goes to the lower drawn runners, but you might just get a better price about those in the higher draws because of the low record over this trip.
- ALL of the last 10 winners ran in a Handicap last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or older
- 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 96+
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won at 1m
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already run at Goodwood
- 5 of the last 10 winners last ran in the previous 2 weeks
“Ran in a Handicap last time out with 3 or more runs this season and probably not a 3yo. Drawn in stall 5 or lower with an OR of 96 or higher and has won at 1m and has run at Goodwood”04” obably already won a Group race, had 2 or more runs this season and didn’t win last time out”
King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
The feature race for Day 4 saw Battaash on the honours roll 4 times in a row so he’s going to have a big influence in the trends. Last years winner JM Jungle might have bucked many trends when winning at 14/1 but he’s coming back for this race and Take Cover is another recent winner who managed to land this more than once.
- ALL of the last 10 winners already had 2 or more wins at 5f
- 9 of the last 10 winners were single-figure priced
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group race
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 111+
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already run at Goodwood
- 8 of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT run inside the last 40 days
“Has 2 or more wins at 5f, is a single-figure price, has won a Group race, has won this season and holds an OR of 111 or higher. Has run at Goodwood and hasn’t run in the last 40 days” in a race and be priced no bigger than 8/1. Look to those who last ran between 20 and 42 days ago”
Conditions 1m1f (Class 2) – 1m1f – (Introduced in 2024)
Only two renewals of this conditions race but a good number of similarities about both winners, including where they raced on their last two starts. Both came from the John Smith’s Cup at York with varying fortunes there, one won the race and one was well beaten. Both also ran at Royal Ascot prior, so that’s probably a pattern that might be worth noting.
- Both winners carried 9-10
- Both winners were NOT the favourite
- Both winners raced prominently
- Both winners raced at 10.5f last time out in the John Smiths Cup at York
- Both winners had 3 runs since May
- Both winners were NOT ridden by the same jockey last time out
- Both winners had run at Royal Ascot that season
“Very small sample size so niche profile, but respect runners coming from the John Smiths Cup who also ran at Royal Ascot and have 3 runs since May and races prominently”
Hawes & Curtis Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Another Nursery Handicap on the week, this time over 6f and despite limited form for these 2yo’s there are some patterns emerging. With 3 of the last 4 winners priced 16/1 or bigger, this might be the race to land one at a big price so don’t be put off if you like one, or something ticks the boxes.
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 career wins
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR between 81 and 85
- 7 of the last 10 winners were handicap debutants
- 6 of the last 10 winners had run at 6f (last 4 had not)
- 6 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at 6f last time out (last 5)
“Has 1 or 2 careers wins, rated between 81 and 85 and making their handicap debut. Not required to have run at 6f and probably didn’t run at 6f last time out”an in a Class 4 or 5 race. Has already run at 7f, preferably has won at 7f and at least placed last time out”
Handicap (Class 3) – 1m3f
The penultimate race is a handicap over a trip not too often used and it’s a race that has been kind to punters with just 1 winner from the last 10 priced bigger than 6/1. Ralph Beckett took last years renewal to add to his success 3 years ago too, both under Hector Crouch so that pair might just have another nice one lined up.
- ALL of the last 10 winners carried 9 stone or more
- 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs this season
- 7 of the last 10 winners finished top 2 last time out (4 won)
- 4 of the last 5 winners had run at about 1m 3f
“Will carry at least 9 stone, expected to be priced 6/1 or shorter preferably with 3 or more runs this season and respect those who placed top 2 last time out or have run at about 1m3f before now” bably drawn no higher than stall 5, placed Top 3 last time out and respect the favourite in this race”
Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m2f – (Introduced 2016)
Day 4 closes with a Fillies’ Handicap which was introduced in 2016 so we now have 10 renewals for comparison. Experience, and winning experience at that, over this 10f trip is expected and a so too is a good run last time out and in good company.
- 9 of the 10 winners had already run at 10 furlongs (7 had won)
- 8 of the 10 winners placed top 3 last time out (6 were top 2)
- 9 of the 10 winners had an OR of 86+
- 9 of the 10 winners ran in a Class 3 or better last time out
- 7 of the 10 winners had won that season
- 7 of the 10 winners ran 18 days ago or less
- 7 of the 10 winners had exactly 2 career wins
“Had already run and preferably won at 10f, placed Top 3 last time out but preferably Top 2 in a Class 3 or better race. Holds and OR of 86 or higher and hopefully has already won this season”
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