Glorious Goodwood will begin on Tuesday 28th July with a sparkling day’s racing on the south coast. Our trends guru Dave Young has delved through the history books and takes a look at all the vital Day 1 trends for what should be cracking opening day.
Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m2f
The Goodwood festival kicks off with a 10-furlong handicap which is race typically won by a big named jockey and trainer. With the likes of Adam Kirby, Jim Crowley, Daniel Tudhope, Silvestre De Sousa, William Buick, Frankie Dettori, Jamie Spencer and Billy Loughnane on the honours roll, it’s clear that everyone wants to hit the ground running for this festival.
- ALL of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
- ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 25 days
- ALL of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
- 8 of the last 10 winners had fewer than 20 flat runs
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR between 95-102
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already won at 10f
- 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or higher
- 6 of the last 10 winners were favourite, joint favourite or second favourite
- 6 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 or bottom 3 stalls
“Will be aged 4 or 5 and did NOT win last time out. Likely ran in the last 25 days and has less than 20 career runs. Respect those drawn in the top or bottom 3 stalls and 1st and 2nd favourites”
Coral Vintage Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
The first Group race of the week is only for the 2yo’s and it’s not typically a race for big shocks. Another race where it’s familiar faces in the winners enclosure and it’s a race which has been kind to favourite backers.
- ALL of the last 10 winners had already won a race
- ALL of the last 10 winners placed top 3 last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners had NOT already raced at Goodwood
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs
- 7 of the last 10 winners were sent off as favourite
- 7 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 4 weeks
- 7 of the last 10 winners came from Ascot or Newmarket last time out
- 6 of the last 10 winners had already raced at 7f
- 6 of the last 10 winners had already been beaten
- 6 of the last 10 winners won last time out
“Will have won a race, placed Top 3 last time out and unlikely to have raced at Goodwood. Has 2 or more runs, respect favourites and likely to come from Ascot or Newmarket last time out”
HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
Another Group 3 but this time for the 3yo’s and older which has seen some very high class horses getting back to winning ways following varied starts to the season. Seeing a 120 rated winner in Audience back in 2024 who was a Group 1 winner that season in the Lockinge and wasn’t even sent off favourite for this race, shows the depth that Goodwood and this particular race attracts.
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 3 or more career wins
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group race
- 9 of the last 10 winners had two or more wins at 7f (the other had not run at 7f)
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or older
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 110+
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already raced at Goodwood
“Has at least 3 career wins with 2 or more wins at 7f. Has probably already won a Group race, had 2 or more runs this season and didn’t win last time out”
Coral Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
A fast and furious 5 furlongs at Goodwood has not seen a winning 1st or 2nd favourite since 2008! If you’re glass half full then we’re maybe due one but given this isn’t always the biggest field handicap maybe this lends itself to a target from a specialist yard, especially when you look at the likes of John Quinn who has trained 4 of the last 9 winners.
- ALL of the last 10 winners were NOT the first or second favourite
- 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT place last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won 3 or more times at 5f
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 23 or more career runs (all had 15+)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 89 or lower
- 4 of the last 10 winners came from the highest stall or lowest 3 stalls
“Will NOT be the 1st or 2nd favourite and likely did NOT place last time out. Has 4 or more runs this season, has 3 or more wins at 5f and has 23 or more career runs with an OR of 89 or lower”
Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 2m
The first Group 1 of the week and it is stayers to the fore with The Goodwood Cup run over 2 miles and was won 4 years in a row by Stradivarius! Kyprios is another recent multiple winner of this contest and typically the Ascot Gold Cup is the launchpad for winner of this race.
- ALL of the last 10 winners had last run between 19 and 45 days ago
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least a Group 2
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or older
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 114+
- 7 of the last 10 winners had raced at 16f (all had won)
- 7 of the last 10 winners last ran at Newmarket or in the Ascot Gold Cup
- 7 of the last 10 winners were sent off as favourite
“Last ran between 19 and 45 days ago and probably at Newmarket or in the Ascot Gold Cup. Has won a Group race and likely at least a Group 2. Won last time out and if raced at 16f has won at 16f too”
Maiden Stakes (Class 2) – 6f
The first maiden race of the week but worth more than some handicaps on this card can lend itself to a very good winner who just hasn’t had things go their way yet. The market can be a good pointer in this race and Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy have teamed up to land the last two renewals.
- 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter (4 favourites)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already run (all of the last 7)
- ALL of the 8 winners who had raced finished 6th or better
- ALL of the 8 winners who had raced had run exclusively at 6 furlongs
- 7 of the 8 winners who had raced ran in a double-figure sized field last time out
- 4 of the last 7 winners were the favourite
“Likely to be sent off 13/2 or shorter, has already raced and finished 6th or better last time out. Probably last ran in a double-figure sized field and has raced exclusively at 6f”
Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3) – 1m – (Introduced 2016)
A new race in 2016 has now been established for a decade and the class of horse who wins this has climbed through the years from an average Official Rating of 83 from the first 5 winners to 89 from the last 5.
- ALL of the 10 winners had already run at 1m (7 multiple times)
- 9 of the 10 winners raced in the last 30 days
- 8 of the 10 winners had won a race this season
- 8 of the 10 winners had 4 or more career runs
- 7 of the 10 winners ran in a Handicap last time out (all beaten in handicaps)
- 7 of the 10 winners had an OR of between 83-88 (last five years 88,87,90,88,92)
“Has raced at a mile and probably multiple times, raced in the last 30 days and if coming from a handicap was beaten last time out. Has won this season and has 4 or more career runs”
Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3) – 6f – (Introduced 2021)
Just 5 renewals of the closing race have been run and before last year it wasn’t the kindest race to punters with no winning favourite. A blend of experience and untapped potential has found the winners across the years so this might be one of the harder races to find strong trends.
- ALL 5 winners ran in a Handicap last time out and 4 were beaten last time out
- ALL 5 winners had no more than 1 win this season
- 4 of the 5 winners raced at 6f last time out
- 4 of the 5 winners had an OR between 80-84 (last winner was 95)
- 4 of the 5 winners were NOT the favourite (last winner was)
- 3 of the 5 winners last ran at Newmarket
“Will have run in a handicap last time out and likely beaten. Has either 0 or 1 win this season. Likely raced at 6f last time out and respect runners coming from Newmarket last time out”
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