Glorious Goodwood Day 2 takes place on Wednesday 29th July. The feature race is the Group 1 Sussex Stakes that is set to see top three-year-old Bow Echo line up against some of the elite from Aidan O’Brien’s yard. Our stats guru Dave Young tries to point you in the right direction of a few winners and provides the vital Day 2 trends here.
Coral Handicap (Class 2) – 12f
A 3yo handicap kicks off Day 2 at Goodwood with this particular race looking to hold some draw bias in favour of lower drawn runners. Typically, the winner follows a path well-trodden, as the trends below highlight, and 4 of the last 5 winners have come from the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot before landing this.
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already been beaten that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already run at 12f (only 4 had won)
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 41 days ago
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or 3 career wins or were still maidens
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off single-figure prices
- 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower
- 5 of the last 10 winners last ran at Ascot (4 from the King George V Stakes)
“Has 2 or more runs this season and has been beaten this season. Has raced at 12f, last ran between 21 and 41 days ago and has 2 or 3 career wins or none. Respect those drawn in stall 5 or lower and those who placed Top 3 last time out”
Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (Class 2) – 5f – (Introduced 2019)
The first non-handicap of this year’s Day 2 at Glorious Goodwood see the Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes over 5 furlongs. Some very nice types have won this with both Flora Of Bermuda and Spicy Marg on the recent honours roll and while this race was only introduced in 2019, there are some very clear patterns that have emerged.
- ALL of the 7 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 6 of the 7 winners were drawn no higher than stall 6 (the other was in 8)
- 6 of the 7 winners ran at 5f last time out
- 6 of the 7 winners had won at 5f (the other hadn’t won)
- 4 of the 7 winners won last time out (other 3 came from a Group 2 race)
“Will come from the Top 3 in the betting, preferably drawn in stall 6 or lower, preferably ran at 5f last time out and won last time out unless coming from a Group race”wood. Has 2 or more runs, respect favourites and likely to come from Ascot or Newmarket last time out”
Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) – 7f – (11 included because of a dead heat in 2025)
The first Group race on Day 3 saw a dead heat which was even more unusual given the joint winners were both trained by Ralph Beckett. Another race which seems to have some well formed trends but I’m not sure you’d ever be able to predict there being two winners of the same race in the same year.
- 10 of the last 11 winners did NOT win last time out
- 9 of the last 11 winners last ran 21 days ago or more
- 9 of the last 11 winners had 2-4 career wins
- 9 of the last 11 winners were 3 or 4 years old
- 8 of the last 11 winners had already run at 7f (7 had won)
- 8 of the last 11 winners had an OR between 100-104
- 6 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the top 3 or bottom 3 stalls
“Probably did NOT win last time out but last ran 21 days ago or more. Has 2-4 career wins but no more than 5 and is aged either 3 or 4. Respect those rated between 100 and 104” obably already won a Group race, had 2 or more runs this season and didn’t win last time out”
Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
A 2yo Group 3 is up next on Day 2 and it’s a race where favourites will typically always run well. Most winners are well found in the market and the expectation is that the winner will have both won and lost already meaning many come here looking for redemption.
- ALL of the last 10 favourites (including joints) have placed
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already won a race
- 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 10 winners had been beaten (the exception only had one run)
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 20 and 42 days ago
- 7 of the last 10 winners came from the first two in the betting
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already run at and won at 5f
“The favourite will at least place and the winner should have already won a race, been beaten in a race and be priced no bigger than 8/1. Look to those who last ran between 20 and 42 days ago”
Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
The feature race on Day 2 is the Sussex Stakes and this is usually won by the best miler around. Last year was abnormal with a 150/1 winner in the form of Qirat who was pitched into the race as a pacemaker but they never caught up. You’d imagine it would be some time before the jockeys make that mistake again but fortune favours the brave and that’s exactly what you’re looking for in the winner of this race.
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- ALL of the last 10 winners had run inside the last 43 days
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more career wins
- 7 of the last 10 winners had won 2 or more Group races
- 7 of the last 10 winners at least placed last time out (4 had won)
- 7 of the last 10 winners came from the first two in the betting
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 119+
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 8 or fewer career runs (6 of the last 7 winners)
- 6 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group 1
“Has 2 or more runs this season and last ran 43 days ago or less. Should have won this season, has 4 or more career wins with 2 or more of those wins coming in Group races.””
World Pool Handicap (Class 3) – 7f
This handicap shows a big bias towards lower drawn runners and despite that being clear we’ve still seen many double-figure priced winners of the race. No winner of this contest had already won that season but many had been to this course in the same year so this feels like the kind of race we can whittle down the field and hopefully find a nice priced winner.
- ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT won a race that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already run at Goodwood (4 this season)
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in a handicap last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners were drawn no higher than stall 10
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-3 and 9-9
- 7 of the last 10 winners last ran in single-figure runner fields
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at exactly 7f last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of between 87-90
“Hasn’t won this season but has probably had 4 or more runs this season. Drawn no higher than stall 10, ran in a handicap last time out, carrying 9-3 to 9-9 and rated between 87 and 90”hed 6th or better last time out. Probably last ran in a double-figure sized field and has raced exclusively at 6f”
Trainer Spotlight
Richard Hannon has had 14 runners in the last 9 years resulting in 3 winners, 1 second, 1 third and 2 fourths. This produced a 107% ROI or £15 profit from £1 level stakes.
In races with 2 runners, the first in the betting has finished best and at least placed in 4 of the 5 instances.
If you were to only back his runners priced 12/1 or shorter the results improve finding all 3 winners but only 1 of the 7 qualifiers didn’t place.
2024 was the first year he did not have at least 1 Goodwood Festival winner and he was also winless in 2025. That said, I believe this is still worth noting, especially for runners who are priced around 12/1 or shorter.”
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