Welsh Grand National Tips, Odds & Runners 2024
The Welsh Grand National at Chepstow is second only to the King George in terms of festive showpiece races. Here are our team’s tips for the 3m6½f marathon chase, as well as the runners and their odds.
Welsh Grand National Tips
Scheduled to take place every year on the 27th December, the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow is second only to the Aintree version among marathon chases in Great Britain. It has had a history of producing winners for that great race too, but it is a much sought after prize of its own right, particularly among the nation’s own trainers.
We will begin to find out the likely runners and riders for the Welsh National shortly, with plenty of interest from yards across Wales, as well as England, Scotland and maybe even Ireland.
Runners and riders to follow
Who are the Top Three Favourites to Win this Year’s Welsh Grand National?
The ground was notably attritional in last year’s Welsh Grand National, although 19 runners ultimately still took part, just one short of the maximum. A field of 20 is usually very reachable given this is a coveted prize.
There are quite a few horses who already look to have stout claims for the 2024 Welsh National. We preview the top three of those here.
Git Maker
Jamie Snowden is becoming an increasingly accomplished trainer of stayers and Git Maker could claim a notable scalp if being aimed at this race. The eight-year-old progressed superbly last season, finishing second at the Cheltenham Festival and third in the Scottish National, but only going up 1lb for both runs. He could easily have won at Cheltenham if not bumping into a handicap blot and looks likely to be well suited by this test.
Nassalam
Last year’s winner Nassalam won by an extraordinary 36-length margin as only five completed the course in desperately tough ground. However, Gary Moore’s charge simply ploughed remorselessly through it off a mark of 145, going up 16lb and taking on the Gold Cup later in the season. Although he did not live up to that exalted level, a return to soft ground in this race could see him put up another bold showing.
Makin’yourmindup
Paul Nicholls hasn’t won a Welsh national since 2005, but Makin’yourmindup has improved for staying chasing of late and could easily still be a horse on the rise. At just seven years of age, he has enough scope to step forward and gain even greater reserves of stamina, while he also goes on heavy ground, another plus for Chepstow.
Welsh Grand National Racecourse
The Welsh Grand National has taken place since 1895, but until 1948 it was run at Ely near Cardiff. Only in 1949, after a one-year stint at Newport, has it been run at Chepstow.
A long, sweeping, uphill beginning to the race ensures stamina must be at a premium from the outset. Equally, it is a track that regularly cuts up due to the weather in December, which has enforced several delays to the race, hence why all of the 2015, 2017 and 2020 runnings were actually held in January of the following year.
If it does become a slog, heavy ground renewals often put an impetus on being up with the pace, as it is very difficult for weary legs to close from the back. Nassalam was always prominent when going on to score by such a wide margin in 2023.
Betting Strategies for the Welsh Grand National
A big field handicap over a marathon distance is a joy to punters. There are lots of ways you can bet on such a race from a very early stage.
Each Way
There have been 28/1 shots placed in two of the last three Welsh Nationals, but you would only have made a profit on them if you had backed them each way. Although this is a way of making smaller profits on slightly less fancied horses, it can be very beneficial in big-field races such as these.
Non Runner No Bet (NRNB)
Many potential Welsh National fancies will not make it to the race for a variety of reasons. You can cover that possibility if you have backed them on NRNB terms, as this will ensure you get your money back if they do not start the race.
Without the Favourite
Backing either The Two Amigos or Iron Bridge in 2020 and 2023 respectively on without the favourite terms would have landed you a win, as while they were only runner-ups in those years, they both finished second to a favourite.
Are There Any Specific Welsh Grand National Betting Offers?
The Welsh Grand National will have plenty of betting offers surrounding it, especially due to the time of year in which it is run. Check back on Boxing Day to find the best offers on the race, such as each-way extra places and profit boosts.
Welsh Grand National Trends & Historic Data
Although it is a handicap in which the field is fairly substantial in most years, favourites have a good record and they are usually well supported. Native River (11/4F), Elegant Escape (3/1F) and Secret Reprieve (5/2F) were all short prices for a race of this nature, but each of them justified those odds in some style. Nassalam was a joint favourite when winning in 2023 too.
Intriguingly, the most common age of a winner in the last decade is six, so younger horses can have their say, with all three winners of that age group going off as one of those aforementioned favourites. Nevetrheless, this also owes to a wide variety of ages winning: the only other age group with more than one victory is the seven-year-olds, with one winner aged eight, nine, ten, 11 and 13.
Local trainers have enjoyed decent success in recent year, with Christian Williams, Evan Williams and Sam Thomas landing three successive renewals between 2019 and 2021 for Wales-based handlers. From a riding perspective, four of the last seven winners have been ridden by claimers, so jockeys who can take a bit of weight off can be a significant advantage.
Who are This Year’s Welsh Grand National Underdogs?
While this is a target that some trainers will identify for their horses, no word has yet come from the handlers of the likes of Galia Des Liteaux, Latenightpass or Mr Incredible, all of whom have staying profiles. Nevertheless, they sit just below the favourites in the market at double-figure prices and could be significant underdogs if they were to be declared to play their part.
Last Year’s Welsh Grand National Odds
Well-backed due to the conditions, Nassalam rewarded his many supporters with a 9/2 success in the race a year ago by a whopping 34 lengths.
Which Trainers Have Historically Had the Most Success in the Welsh Grand National?
Among current trainers, this race has proven very difficult to win on multiple occasions. Even Paul NIcholls has only claimed the race twice, and not since 2005, while both of NIgel Twiston-Davies’ winners were Grand National winners at Aintree too: Earth Summit won this en route to Liverpool while Bindaree won it two seasons later.
Martin Pipe, who so often enjoyed a handicap coup, was able to win this on five occasions, most notably with Carvill’s Hill. He is the winningest trainer since the race moved to Chepstow.
Runners & Riders Past Winners
Year | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
2023 | Nassalam | Gary Moore | Caoilin Quinn | 9/2J |
2022 | The Two Amigos | Nicky Martin | David Prichard | 16/1 |
2021 | Iwilldoit | Sam Thomas | Stan Sheppard | 13/2 |
2020 | Secret Reprieve | Evan Williams | Adam Wedge | 5/2F |
2019 | Potters Corner | Christian Williams | Jack Tudor | 8/1 |
2018 | Elegant Escape | Colin Tizzard | Tom O’Brien | 3/1F |
2017 | Raz De Maree | Gavin Cromwell | James Bowen | 16/1 |
2016 | Native River | Colin Tizzard | Richard Johnson | 11/4F |
2015 | Mountainous | Kerry Lee | Jamie Moore | 9/1 |
2014 | Emperor’s Choice | Venetia Williams | Aidan Coleman | 9/1 |